Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 15:22:39 +0100
Analysis: Propaganda, Al Shabaab-style, and a few hard truths
* Simon Allison
* 12 Mar 2014 11:18 (South Africa)
Al Shabaab's on-the-run leader broke cover this week to release a recorded
message, in which he exhorted Somalis to fight the good fight against
foreign invaders, especially old enemy Ethiopia. It was a typical Islamist
propaganda piece, filled with references to God, infidels and the Holy War -
but it was also surprisingly perceptive about where Somalia is at the
moment, and where it's going. By SIMON ALLISON.
It's been a rough few months for Ahmed Abdi Godane, the now-undisputed
leader of Somali Islamist militant group Al Shabaab. He's on the run, moving
from place to place and avoiding phone calls or
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-03-11-analysis-propaganda-al-sh
abaab-style-and-a-few-hard-truths/>
internethttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png or any
technology that might allow his enemies to trace him. The idea is to stay
out of the way of those all-seeing, all-hearing drones that the USA has
vulturing around Somali airspace just waiting to send a Hellfire missile
screaming in his general direction.
Nonetheless, the drones have already been called into action once this year:
<http://allafrica.com/stories/201402100878.html?viewall=1> Godane was saved
by a last-minute change in plans, but four of his convoy were not so lucky.
He's also managed to dodge a Kenyan air strike which wiped out another 30
militants.
At the same time, the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) is
tightening the noose around what remains of Al Shabaab territory (still a
sizeable portion of the country, admittedly). This weekend alone, Amisom
claim to have regained control of five towns in the Bay, Bakool and Gedo
regions - not bad for a few days' work. "Our aim is to not stop this
operation until we take over all the districts, all the areas that Al
Shabaab currently occupies," said an Amisom spokesperson, in bullish mood.
Godane's woes don't end there. Where his organisation once enjoyed the
spoils of tax collection, port fees and a hefty cut of pirate ransoms, Al
Shabaab has seen its revenue dry up under the continued Amisom assault.
Every town lost means that another revenue stream disappears, which is bad
news for Islamists - after all, civil war does not come cheap.
So it was no surprise, then, to hear the slightly desperate tone of Godane's
voice in the audio recording he released to his supporters this week.
"Somalis, your religion has been attacked, your land divided, your resources
looted directly and indirectly through the puppet government - our victory
lies in Jihad," he said, exhorting followers to redouble their efforts
against the foreign invaders. "I call upon the fighters to defend the
religion and to fight against the enemies. Ethiopian soldiers who have come
thousands of kilometers should not outlast you."
Godane's call is straight out of the Al Shabaab playbook, designed to
generate support by demonising whatever foreign military force happens to be
in nearest proximity (and, over the last decade or two, there's almost
always been a foreign military force in Somalia); to conflate the religious
war, the Jihad, with a nationalist appeal for the protection of Somalia's
territory. In the past, it has been a highly effective strategy, but it is
interesting that Godane employs it still.
For much of its relatively short history, Al Shabaab was split into two
broad factions: the nationalist camp, who put Somalia first and Islam
second; and the international jihadi camp, led by Godane, who insisted on
vice versa. In 2013, Godane instituted a purge of Al Shabaab's upper
echelons, which was widely viewed as an attempt to stamp out nationalist
elements within the group.
Despite this, Godane, with his back against the wall, clearly sees some
merit in employing the same nationalist rhetoric - although it might not be
quite as effective this time round. Abdirashid Hashi, a former cabinet
minister and now deputy director of the Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute,
told Reuters: "With the way Al Shabaab have been conducting themselves over
the last couple of years, I think it will be very difficult for Godane to
create the kind of mood that there was in 2006. A lot of Somalis are more
worried about him and his policies."
This is a fair comment, but the converse is also true: a lot of Somalis are
also worried about the large military presence in their country of Kenya and
Ethiopia, and are wondering whether the intentions of their east African
neighbours are quite as benign as both like to make out. Godane, astutely,
picked up on this lingering concern. "The aim of the invasion is to divide
the remaining Somalia between Kenya and Ethiopia under the cover of the
establishment of Somali states," he said in his message, tapping into those
nationalist fears again.
Except he may have a point. Neither the Kenyan nor the Ethiopian presence in
Somalia can be described as altruistic. In fact, both militaries entered
without any kind of international or continental mandate - they have only
subsequently been absorbed into Amisom. And both have very clear objectives
of their own.
For Kenya, it is to stem the tidal wave of piracy and instability which was
disrupting two vital industries: shipping to the port of Mombasa, and
tourism along the Indian Ocean coastline. The idea is to create a
semi-autonomous buffer state known as Jubaland - technically part of
Somalia, but answering to paymasters in Nairobi. This has not proved as easy
as Kenyan strategists anticipated, with plenty of opposition from local
politicians and warlords. Nonetheless, Kenyan troops have ensured that there
is a decent size territory between the Kenyan border and Al Shabaab
territory - making their country safer in the process (this is the theory,
at least; the terrorist attack on Westgate Mall last year showed just how
porous borders can be).
Ethiopia, meanwhile, has got two big internal problems to deal with. First
is that its Ogaden province is ethnically Somali, and there have been
serious, sometimes violent movements demanding that it be allowed to be part
of Somalia instead. The 1977-1978 war between Ethiopia and Somalia was
fought over this territory, and it remains a sore point. The second is its
large and growing Muslim population. In fact, Islam is set to overtake
Christianity as Ethiopia's most popular religion, if it hasn't already. The
Ethiopian government, predominantly Christian, is terrified that the
country's Muslim population, or a significant proportion of it, may become
radicalised along Al Shabaab lines.
Going after Al Shabaab offers a solution to both problems: it guarantees a
weak Somali state which is in no position to demand territory, and which few
people in their right minds would actively seek to join; and it neuters the
most dangerous source of radical Islam in the region. And once Al Shabaab is
dealt with, Ethiopia will have no compunction about doing whatever it can to
ensure that both national and the relevant regional administrations are
friendly to Ethiopia (in the past, it has invaded Somalia to unseat an
unfavourable government; the radical remnants of which now call themselves
Al Shabaab).
When Godane complains about Kenya and Ethiopia dividing Somalia between
themselves, this, then is what he's talking about. And that's why it's such
a dangerous point: strip away the propaganda, and he's absolutely right. DM
Read more:
* Al Shabaab leader urges Somalis to battle old enemy Ethiopia on
<http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-somalia-alshabaab-leader-idUSB
REA291OL20140310> Reuters
* Al Shabaab's deadly shenanigans on
<http://gga.org/stories/editions/aif-18-fault-lines-africas-separation-anxie
ty/the-youth2019s-deadly-shenanigans> Good Governance Africa
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-03-11-analysis-propaganda-al-sh
abaab-style-and-a-few-hard-truths/> simon-shabaab-propaganda.jpg
(image/png attachment: image001.png)
(image/jpeg attachment: image002.jpg)