Date: Sat, 3 May 2014 23:05:20 +0200
In choosing security over democracy in Ethiopia, U.S. will get neither
Kerry misses chance to press Addis Ababa on political liberalization
May 3, 2014 4:30AM ET
by <http://america.aljazeera.com/profiles/h/hassen-hussein-.html> Hassen
Hussein <http://www.twitter.com/HusseinHxhuss10> _at_HusseinHxhuss10
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Ethiopia's capital, Addis
Ababa, Thursday in the first leg of his three-nation trip to Africa "
<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/225186.htm> to encourage
democratic development." He came to a country rocked by mounting
<https://twitter.com/search?f=realtime&q=%23OromoProtests&src=hash> student
protests against the government and vicious military crackdowns that left
scores dead and wounded, as well as
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/04/arrests-headline-ethiopia
-press-freedom-fears-201443012294640663.html> the troubling imprisonment of
dissident journalists and bloggers.
To his credit, Kerry raised concerns about the tightening of press freedom
in Ethiopia. "I made clear to Ethiopian officials that they need to create
greater opportunities for citizens to be able to engage with their fellow
citizens and with their government by opening up more space for civil
society," <http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/05/225467.htm> Kerry
told reporters in Addis Ababa.
However, his discussions with Ethiopia's leaders were overshadowed by
<http://america.aljazeera.com/topics/topic/international-location/africa/sou
th-sudan.html> South Sudan's implosion - with continuing fragility in
next-door Somalia, and souring Egypt-Ethiopia relations stirred by
<http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/2/egypt-disputes-ethiopiarenaiss
ancedam.html> Ethiopia's construction of the Great Renaissance Dam over the
Nile, in the background.
This focus was unfortunate but hardly surprising. For over two decades,
despite fleeting statements expressing "concern," Washington has shied away
from seriously engaging Ethiopian authorities on the need for genuine
democratization. Without the latter, the country's extended prosperity is in
danger. "To support economic growth for the long term, the free marketplace
of ideas matters just as much as free markets," Kerry
<http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/05/225467.htm> noted in his
remarks. But he failed to underscore how rising instability could erode
Ethiopia's standing as a linchpin to the otherwise volatile Horn of Africa
region's stability and damage its newly minted image as an emerging economic
powerhouse.
Growing dissent
Reports of the number of dead vary, but in clashes with security forces over
the last few days, locals say at least 20 protesters have been killed and
many others wounded in Ambo and Robe towns. The government
<http://aigaforum.com/news/press-releas-gco-on-student-unrest-oromia-0501014
.pdf> acknowledged 11 deaths, adding at least 70 students were wounded in a
bomb blast at <http://www.haramaya.edu.et/> Haramaya University in Eastern
Oromia.
<http://www.swedenabroad.com/en-GB/Embassies/Addis-Abeba/Current-affairs/New
s/Caution-Public-Announcement-sys/> Swedish and
<https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ethiopia> U.K. embassies in Addis
Ababa updated travel warnings for their nationals urging those in Ethiopia
to avoid visiting the area.
Ethnic Oromo students are protesting against a new urban development plan
unveiled in April by the Addis Ababa city administration. Protesters say the
city's master plan, devised by ruling party functionaries without public
input, would allow the
<http://thinkafricapress.com/ethiopia/addis-ababa-sleeping-beauty-no-longer-
student-protests-police-response-oromo> sprawling metropolis to swallow up
surrounding Oromo towns and rural villages.
Protesters fear the new plan would facilitate the eviction of thousands of
farmers from their ancestral lands without proper compensation - an unjust
process that has been happening since the city's founding a century ago.
Their land would be sold at dirt-cheap prices to foreign and domestic
investors, exacerbating the country's growing income inequality and diluting
the Oromo national identity. In addition, the plan would condemn the Oromo,
Ethiopia's single largest ethnic group, to being an agrarian population in a
fast-urbanizing country and balkanize their homeland into an eastern and
western half - in a manner reminiscent of occupied Palestinian territories -
leaving the state of Oromia with only nominal control.
The ongoing protests and crackdown on freedom of expression are the latest
signs of growing discontent and Addis Ababa's increasing authoritarianism.
The U.S. State Department's annual human rights report,
<http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapper>
released by Kerry on Feb. 27, details Ethiopia's worsening human rights
situation. In recent years, the country's adoption of a spate of draconian
laws, including its
<http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/Ethiopia_CSOLawAnal
ysis_2008_10_0.pdf> Charities and Societies Proclamation and
<http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/Ethiopia%20CT%20Law
%20Analysis%20June%202009_2.pdf> Anti-Terrorism Law, has given security and
intelligence forces and the vengeful judiciary carte blanche to criminalize
all forms of dissent and to arrest opposition leaders.
While the student protests have so far been confined to college campuses,
they echo a long-simmering popular grievance. The Oromo make up close to 40
percent of Ethiopia's population of 94 million, but are conspicuously
marginalized in that country's political, economic and social life. The
government's refusal to address their complaints is a major bottleneck on
the country's democratization.
The Oromo student protests are not new. Since 2001, sporadic student-led
riots have rattled the state - the most potent being in 2006 following
botched 2005 elections. The ire of past protests has been mainly against the
Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), the junior partner in the
ruling Ethiopian Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPRDF). This time around,
the rank and file of the OPDO seems to have resigned itself to the
inevitability of protests by going public with its disapproval of the master
plan. This has forced the party's top echelon to scramble, mostly in vain,
to downplay the plan's shortcomings and tout its envisaged benefits. Far
from reassuring, their comments fueled more protests and emboldened those
agitating for an outright rejection of the ruling party's 22-year-old rule.
The state-run media have also shown some murmur of dissent. In a rare sign
of independence, the regional TV Oromiya <http://youtu.be/MrWs8yJh5mY>
aired comments critical of the plan in April. Unlike protesters of years
past, who universally rejected the legitimacy of the Ethiopian state,
today's students are calling for perfecting the union - by designating Oromo
as one of Ethiopia's official federal languages; judiciously implementing
the country's 1994 constitution, which crafted nine states on the basis of
linguistic criteria; and releasing all political prisoners. The students'
moderation notwithstanding, security forces have characteristically
responded by using disproportionate force.
Since the death in 2012 of the country's mercurial Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi, who ruled with an iron fist, the EPRDF has been
<http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13575/big-tent-ethiopias-author
itarian-balancing-act> struggling to maintain its hallmark of internal
cohesion. Party discipline was severely strained during the murky transition
as well as
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/04/ethiopia-where-conscience-
consta-20144105374788379.html> the two-year-long sit-ins by the country's
restive Muslim population. The ongoing violent crackdown on peaceful
protesters - who include rank-and-file members of the OPDO, which
constitutes 5 million out of the ruling party's 7 million members - is bound
to test the EPRDF's unholy alliance.
Ethiopia's current political dispensation as a nominal ethnic federation
overseen by the overlordship of the powerful Tigrean ethnic elite is
severely contested. While the Oromo are pressing for making the federation
more meaningful, ethnic Amhara elites, Ethiopia's traditional rulers, are
calling for the dismantling of the country's ethnic federalism - likening it
to a ticking time bomb threatening Ethiopia's unity and territorial
integrity.
Untenable status quo
The limits on free speech, the violent suppression of protesters and
imprisonment of political leaders and bloggers portend ill for the future of
Washington's loyal ally. Kerry's restrained nudging did not appear to have
swayed Addis Ababa toward political liberalization. Although U.S. leverage
has clearly waned in recent years, Kerry should have used his visit's huge
moral weight. As a high-ranking member of the Senate's Foreign Relations
Committee, he was a fierce advocate for democracy and human rights. His
strong support for Ukrainian protesters in their recent standoff with former
President Viktor Yakunovych, however, contrasts with his decision to side
with the military in hijacking the Egyptian revolution, which had briefly
stoked high hopes for regional democratic transformation.
Security forces may temporarily silence the current student uprisings in
Oromia and contain rising indications of potentially catastrophic urban
disturbances ahead of the 2015 elections. But the status quo is untenable.
Unless held in a free, fair and inclusive manner, in a marked departure from
previous elections in which the ruling party claimed hollow victory thanks
to its tight grip on all state institutions, the upcoming elections will no
doubt mark a watershed moment for Ethiopia's democratic transformation or
its irreversible derailment.
To encourage democratic development, the professed aim of his trip, Kerry
should have insisted that Addis Ababa embrace the growing chorus for
liberalization. This includes a firm statement calling for an end to the
repression of peaceful protesters in Oromia and the opening of the political
and press environment, both of which are now monopolized by the ruling
party. Instead, the U.S. ultimately missed another opportunity to push for a
peaceful and gradual transition to democracy in a region marked by tyranny
and volatility.
Hassen Hussein is an assistant professor at St. Mary's University of
Minnesota, a longtime democracy activist and a leader of Ethiopia's largest
ethnic group, the Oromo.
oromo student
Oromo student injured by police during a peaceful rally held at Wollega
University, Ethiopia on April 27. qeerroo.org
(image/jpeg attachment: image003.jpg)