<
http://www.madote.com/2014/05/ethiopian-regime-quietly-disintegrating.html>
Ethiopian Government
<
http://www.madote.com/2014/05/ethiopian-regime-quietly-disintegrating.html>
Quietly Disintegrating
May 11, 2014 | 9:42 AM
The general election looming ahead in 2015 is already casting a shadow over
the Ethiopian government, whose sole uniting bond would seem to be its
praise for the memory of its late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
His portraits are on all the walls in Addis Ababa, which was not the case
when he was alive, and in the Federal Assembly a video projector plays his
speeches with the aim of inspiring the new MPs. And yet, since Meles Zenawi
died in August 2012, the federal government has been rudderless, lacking a
descendent.
His successor as Prime Minister, Haile Mariam Desalegn, has neither the grip
nor the political clout and has not managed to impose himself on the other
political leaders. He frequently has to be content with merely dealing with
everyday business. While it is true the Ethiopian State, whose tradition
goes back a long way has not fallen into decadence, the different factions
and regionalist tendencies are making federal power increasingly fragmented.
Divisions produce inertia - Going beyond appearances, the ruling coalition
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Frong (EPRDF) is in embryonic
Crisis state. Its central core, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF),
is deeply divided between "provincial" faction led by the Tigray Regional
State President Abay Woldu, and the "modern nationalist" faction headed by
Deputy Prime Minister Debretsion Gebremicahel, not to forget the various
other Tigrayan sub-factions such as those of the elderly Marxist Sebhat Nega
and the Meles Zenawi's widow Azeb Mesfin.
Facing this inter-Tigrayan squablle, the Amhara in the ANDM and the Oromo in
the OPDO (two of the parties in the ruling coalition) are watching from the
wings, biding their time before they go into the arena. This freezes the
decision-making power, as each faction does not want to make the wrong
decision and yield an advantage to its rivals. In early April, speaking on a
live TV debate (a rare event in itself), Amare Aregawi the editor of The
reporter asked the Prime Minister who is it that makes the decisions in the
office and whether he is capable of making any himself. Much to the surprise
of the viewers who are used to seeing decisiveness on their screens, Haile
Mariam Desalegn mumbled an unconvincing response, confirming that the
question had indeed struck home.
The economy and diplomacy are broken - Ethiopian diplomacy suffers from a
lack of leadership at the top of country. Questions about the situation in
Somalia are left to the head of the Ethiopian army which is intervening
directly in its neighbour's territory. In the case of the IGAD mediation in
the South Sudan crisis, the former foreign affairs minister Seyoum Mesfin
was recalled from his post of ambassador to Beijing to lead the mediation.
He nevertheless played a fairly effective role of mediator, which was
largely taken over by the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni even though
Ethiopia did at the time hold the presidency of IGAD.
Similar blockages have produced similar effects in the management of the
State-oned companies. The telephone network run by Ethio Telecom (formerly
ETC) provides a very poor service, mainly because of frequent electricity
outages which also affect the water distribution system when the electric
pumps stop running. The cause is breakdowns of the aging transformers
purchased second-hand from India by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation
(EEPCO) several years ago. Today, EEPCO and ETC are squabbling over who
should pay the cost of renovating the electricity system, a problem which
Debretsion Gebremicael, the chairman of the EEPCO and ETC boards, has been
unable to settle.
Regionalism becoming more intense - Since the end of April, the federal
police have brutally repressed student protests against the Master Plan in
several universities in the Oromia Regional State. This Master Plan involves
the expansion of Addis Ababa whose mayor, Diriba Kuma, is also an Oromo.
In the students' view, this project would eat into Oromo land and reduce the
area their language is used. This is regionalist exacerbation is illustrated
by certain of the student slogans, proclaiming "Oromia for Oromos" and by
the start of misdemeanours against Amhara farmers obliged to leave their
land and take refuge in Addis Ababa.
Certain TPLF officials have no qualms to explain that in their view, some
ultra-regionalist elements of the ruling OPDO are discreetly fueling this
student protest movement against the Master Plan.
Received on Sun May 11 2014 - 16:21:48 EDT