Nairobi/Mogadishu - Faced with an increase in undeterred, high-profile
terror attacks in Kenya, politicians, analysts and citizens alike have
weighed in on the vigorous debate about whether the Kenya Defence Forces
(KDF) should withdraw from Somalia.
Recent calls by some Kenyan politicians for the government to present a
roadmap for withdrawal have struck a chord among the segment of Kenyan's
population weary of the human cost of fighting al-Shabaab. But security
analysts from Kenya and Somalia warn that withdrawing Kenyan troops from the
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is short-sighted and ill-advised.
Calling for withdrawal
"In our attempt to help a neighbour we have suffered a lot -- costs ranging
from human loss and monetary loss," said Kenya's Senate Minority Leader
Moses Wetangula. "Now it is time we plan as a country to end our presence in
Somalia and save the country from further conflicts."
"We in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy [opposition party] have
already written to the government requesting that they furnish us and the
country at large with a roadmap for withdrawal of Kenyan forces inside
Somalia," he told Sabahi.
Wetangula said any exit strategy should include training Somali military and
police and rallying development partners to help Somalia achieve a better
future.
Ronald Tonui, a Jubilee party member who represents Bomet Central
constituency in the National Assembly, said he plans to present a motion in
parliament after June 3rd, when lawmakers return from recess, to withdraw
Kenyan troops from Somalia.
"It does not make any sense that our forces are trying to keep peace in
Somalia at the expense of Kenyans' safety," Tonui told Sabahi. "We have
remained exposed to terror attacks since we took over the assignment in
Somalia in 2011. It is time we ended it for the sake of peace of our
country."
"The series of attacks we have faced since the KDF [operation] in Somalia
has had lots of negative effects on our economy, thus deterring our
development progress as a nation," he said.
"To me, this entire struggle is not worth it," he said. "We [would] rather
be termed cowards but [ensure] our citizens are safe than be seen as brave
while the entire nation is intimidated by the unstoppable attacks."
Mary Okoth, 40, a florist in Nairobi's Westlands neighbourhood, said there
was no logic for Kenya's continued involvement in Somalia given the
increasingly unstable security situation at home.
"An old saying says that charity begins at home," she told Sabahi. "You
cannot run out with a bucket of water to douse a neighbour's house when your
own house is on fire. I think the forces should come home and clear the mess
here before they can think of any international engagements."
'The government will not allow terrorists to blackmail us'
Despite the calls to withdraw and growing support for bringing the troops
home, the Kenyan government has said unequivocally that is not an option.
"The government will not allow terrorists to dictate or blackmail us into
changing our local or foreign policy," Deputy President William Ruto told
reporters May 5th, days after a string of deadly terrorist attacks in
Nairobi and Mombasa that killed six people and injured scores.
"We will not withdraw until Somalia has a stable and secure government free
from terror," he said, adding that recalling Kenyan troops from AMISOM would
create a safe haven for al-Shabaab, which would pose an even greater
security threat to Kenya and the entire region.
"Our collective security is a shared responsibility; every person must play
his or her part in maintaining unwavering vigilance," Ruto said. "All arms
of government must play their full part and every citizen must also fulfil
their patriotic obligations."
Vice Chair of the parliamentary Defence and Foreign Relations Committee
Elias Bare Shill dismissed calls to withdraw.
"The proposals to have the forces withdrawn are misplaced," he told Sabahi.
If fact, he said his parliamentary committee would be "willing to support
any push to have the soldiers increased."
Without giving exact figures, Shill said Kenya's financial burden for
keeping KDF soldiers in Somalia was less than publicly perceived because a
huge percentage is covered by AMISOM and supported by the international
community.
"It should also be noted that the main reason that drove us into Somalia was
to avoid further attacks as the ragtag militant group had consistently
launched attacks and kidnappings within Kenyan territory," he said.
Shill said Kenya should stay in Somalia to finish what they started, to
eliminate al-Shabaab once and for all.
KDF pull-out would be 'disastrous'
Simiyu Werunga, a retired Kenyan army captain and director of the Africa
Centre for Security and Strategic Studies in Nairobi, said withdrawing would
not only be disastrous for Somalia but also for the entire region.
"Pulling out would mean we would be giving the terrorists time to declare
victory, regroup and establish a launching pad for further attacks," he told
Sabahi. "To me, this is the time operations should be intensified because
[al-Shabaab] has been weakened and run out of their bases."
Werunga said the continuing attacks in Kenya were a result of failed
internal security.
"Our soldiers should [stay] in Somalia until they eliminate the terror
threat, but they should not be involved in the internal political affairs of
Somalia," Werunga said, adding that the Kenyan government should tackle
corruption at home and boost intelligence gathering to prevent terror
attacks.
For his part, former Somali presidential spokesman and senior adviser
Abdirahman Omar Osman Yarisow said that the debate on withdrawing Kenyan
troops from Somalia was uncalled for and ill-advised.
"The priority is to deal with al-Shabaab. Any pull-out of any forces under
the AMISOM arrangement would mean a weakened approach to dealing with
al-Shabaab," he told Sabahi.
"A pull-out by the KDF would mean trouble in the port city of Kismayo where
al-Shabaab remnants may re-group and re-capture the port that acted as their
operational hub," Yarisow said.
"We, the Somali people and the government I served in the recent past,
appreciate the work Kenyan forces have done for Somalia," he said. "It is
unfortunate that criminals have opted to attack Kenya in what they perceive
as retaliation."
Eunice Oloo, an advocate and legal officer for the Nairobi-based Rights
Promotions and Protection Centre, said she supported the move to retain
Kenyan troops in Somalia because it has helped stabilise the nation and
reduce the humanitarian crisis there.
"The burden that the humanitarian crisis has been putting on Kenya and other
development partners for hosting refugees who have been running away from
war in Somalia has been heavy," she told Sabahi.
"[Therefore] the forces' continued stay translates to a stable Somalia. On
the flipside, withdrawal will translate into a [... ] mass displacement of
citizens, a majority of whom will end up in Kenya as refugees," she said.
What a withdrawal means to internal security
The KDF contributes over 3,600 troops to AMISOM, so if Kenya were to
withdraw, it would be a blow to the mission's strength and military
operations, according to Abdikarim Daud Nur, a former member of the Somali
military who teaches political science at Mogadishu University.
However, he said withdrawing would be impractical and have no impact on
Kenya's internal security, as al-Shabaab militants were targeting Kenya
before it sent troops to Somalia.
"It took Kenya a long time to become part of AMISOM so that it can safeguard
its strategic needs," he told Sabahi. "Therefore, I do not think it is going
to let go of that opportunity easily due to a few explosions and threats
from al-Shabaab."
What does have an impact on internal security are Kenya's indiscriminate
arrests of ethnic-Somalis and Muslims in general, Nur said. "That will
create religious hatred and will push many young people into joining
al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda."
Colonel Abdullahi Adam Irro, a former member of the Somali military and
police during the Mohamed Siad Barre regime, agreed that pulling out of
Somalia would not improve Kenya's domestic security.
"On the contrary, what can happen is that [al-Shabaab] says 'Kenya has
weakened' and continue their attacks targeting Kenya," he told Sabahi.
Irro also echoed concerns about what a withdrawal would mean for AMISOM's
overall military offensive and the ability of the Somali government to build
on the success the military operations have had so far.
If Kenyan troops are recalled, a plan should be in place to replace them
immediately, he said. "Time will have to be provided for those positions to
be filled before Kenya ever withdrew because if they left it would mean
al-Shabaab would reclaim territories they have been cleared from."
For example, he said, when Ethiopian troops unexpectedly withdrew from Hudur
in 2012, al-Shabaab returned and killed many civilians who had supported the
federal government and allied forces.
Nonetheless, Irro said for Kenya to continue participating in the AMISOM
operation with support from all Somalis, it should take steps to train its
soldiers on human rights issues and Somali culture, and ensure its
intentions are clear to the Somali people.
Ultimately, it is in the best interest of both Somalia and Kenya for the two
countries to trust each other, work together, share intelligence and fight
the enemy together, he said.