Date: Fri, 16 May 2014 20:14:24 +0200
Kiir, Machar tie the knot?
Gamal Nkrumah reckons hostilities that have ravished war-torn South Sudan
will not easily end, even with the signing last Friday in Addis Ababa of a
peace deal
Friday,16 May, 2014
Last Friday, South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his former vice-president
and political rival Reik Machar signed a peace deal in the Ethiopian capital
Addis Ababa. Rather ominously, a similar ceasefire was signed in Addis Ababa
in January between Kiir and Machar. It fell apart within days. Will Friday's
deal meet the same sorry end?
In January, the South Sudanese protagonists were in no mood to be lectured.
Now, they seem to concede that it is possible that the international
community is worth listening to.
The South Sudanese should resist surrender to moral relativism. In the not
so distant past they were committed to fighting the repressive militant
Islamist regime in Khartoum. Southerners had a common foe. Now, after South
Sudan gained independence, their politicians, even within the ruling Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), do no seem to have a common
denominator.
The deal means "an immediate cessation of hostilities within 24 hours of the
signing" and "unhindered humanitarian access" to all people affected by the
months-long conflict, said a statement by the East African regional bloc
known as IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development).
The international community has expressed its outrage and concern at
developments in South Sudan. The world is committed to "ending the violence
and negotiating in good faith to reach a political agreement," United
Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the protagonists.
He underlined that the warring parties should "immediately translate these
commitments into action on the ground". The problem is that there are
growing fears among South Sudan's neighbours and Western powers that the
protagonists in South Sudan will not keep their promise or heed the words of
Ban Ki-Moon.
The message is clear enough. Whether the South Sudanese protagonists will
adhere to the agreement is another matter. The few years of independence
have been fraught with colossal challenges. The West likes to blame all
South Sudan's ills on local corruption.
The megalomaniac mentality of the warlords who still wield tremendous power
complicates matters, too. And for all the smiles and handshakes in Addis
Ababa, sure enough fighting erupted once again in the oil hub of Bentui less
than 24 hours after signing the latest Addis Ababa peace deal.
This is South Sudan's darkest hour, even though it was expected to be its
brightest hope since 9 July 2011 when southerners seceded after voting
overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum held in January 2011. In
spite of its oil wealth, South Sudan has some of the world's worst social
indicators in education, healthcare and child malnutrition. Hunger rates are
above emergency levels, ironically in the war-torn oil producing regions in
particular. Maternal mortality rates are among the worst in the world and
life expectancy is among the lowest in Africa and the world.
Sidestepping sterile arguments about who is to blame for the sorry situation
of South Sudan, it has become abundantly clear that the warlords do not have
full control over their fighting forces. The militias in the bush, so to
speak, do as they wish. Scores of women were gang-raped by soldiers, again
in the vicinity of oil producing areas.
Machar marshalled a ragtag army of die-hard supporters, mainly from his
ethnic Nuer people. Most, but not all, of the rival Dinka clans rallied
behind President Kiir's battle cry in retaliation against Machar's
insubordination. The result was mayhem. An estimated 1.5 million people have
been displaced, rendered homeless since hostilities broke out. It appears
that there is a deliberate policy of displacing the inhabitants of oil-rich
areas of the country. Some observers, humanitarian and human rights groups
have warned of systematic process of ethnic cleansing in oil-rich regions.
How much of this should come as a surprise? Practical problems abound, such
as poor infrastructure, probably the worst in the world, which necessitates
air transport for logistics and medical evacuation conducted by humanitarian
groups, along with surveillance and intelligence, as well as close air
support, to monitor the situation in the areas of intense fighting.
Few expect an instant termination to hostilities. However, many hope for a
slow draw down of combat troops from both the Machar and the Kiir camps.
Most of South Sudan's neighbours to the south, headed by Uganda, favour
Kiir, which may have weakened Machar's bargaining position in Addis Ababa.
An old adage about image is that it takes decades to build a reputation, but
only days to destroy it. The South Sudanese political establishment has an
image problem. They have not run their nascent nation well.
It is important to bear in mind, though, that Friday's meeting in Addis
Ababa was the first face-to-face encounter between Kiir and Machar since
fighting erupted in South Sudan between forces loyal to Kiir and supporters
of Machar. This marks a historic shift of sorts.
Kiir, Machar tie the knot?
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