November 4, 2014: As the Shia rebels move south from the capital they
encounter armed resistance, but not enough to stop them. In the last two
weeks there have been over a thousand casualties in this fighting and the
Shia rebels are winning. The objective appears to be the port of Aden. This
city is full of Sunni separatists who appear more into demonstrations than
armed resistance. In Aden, long the center of independent southern Yemen,
separatist demonstrators have been in the streets for over two weeks, but
the Shia dominated government soldiers and police still control the city.
The security forces also continue to go after Islamic terrorists and
separatist tribesmen while cooperating with Shia rebels advancing south.
AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) continues to make attacks, usually
assassinations of soldiers and police, especially commanders as well as
against Shia gunmen. There have been fewer bombings and more attempts by
large groups of AQAP gunmen to seize control of towns and cities. These have
failed, but AQAP keeps trying, apparently hoping to grab places with
demoralized security forces who will flee rather than fight.
The U.S. and the Sunni Arab Gulf States (particularly Saudi Arabia) see the
changes in Yemen as an Iranian ploy to gain greater influence, if not
control, in Yemen. This is being done with the help of deposed (in 2012)
president Saleh who obtained immunity from prosecution (for past crimes) in
return for leaving peacefully. But Saleh still had many allies, including
many in the security forces. A purge of the security forces did not change
this as much as the new government thought. Saleh is keeping his head down
as the Shia rebels take over, but his influence is difficult to ignore. On
the plus side the current (nominally Sunni dominated) government and the
Shia rebels agree on the need to destroy AQAP and the Islamic terrorists are
losing ground as the Shia forces move south. But once the Shia take Aden,
they will have a more difficult time in western Yemen, which is largely
desert, Sunni and thinly populated. Lots of hiding places and a difficult
area to control, for anyone.
Iran has not actively intervened in Yemen and the Sunni Arab states that
border Yemen are not willing to invade to thwart the Shia rebels. This is
because it's not just Iran and the Shia rebels who are the problem but all
the factions there. The Shia are only a third of the population but they are
united while the Sunni majority is split into numerous factions. If any
neighboring country invaded the Yemenis would unite to oppose this. This
factionalism has long been a serious problem in Yemen and the Shia rebels
attract some Sunni support by demanding a less corrupt and more competent
government. That is something most Yemenis can agree on. Yet if the Shia end
up dominating this new government, the neighbors are nervous about increased
Iranian influence and that might get ugly.
November 3, 2014: In the west (Jabal Ras) Shia rebels entered the Red Sea
port city of Hudeida (224 kilometers west of the capital) and took control.
The AQAP men there had withdrawn over the weekend.
November 2, 2014: In the capital assassins killed the head of the Union of
Popular Forces party. This was one of the more liberal major parties. No one
took credit for the murder.
In the west (Jabal Ras) AQAP gunmen and soldiers continued to fight.
November 1, 2014: In the capital all parties agreed on a new cabinet with
"apolitical technocrat" ministers. The Shia insisted on this and the UN
mediators involved went along. The Shia rebels promised to pull their forces
out of the capital (and all other Sunni areas they have conquered lately)
once the new government is in place. The rebels have told the president and
prime minister they have ten days to form the new government with ministers
acceptable to the Shia and other major parties. Such a dream team
(acceptable to all major factions) may not be possible. It's that damn
factionalism again.
In the west (Jabal Ras) AQAP gunmen attacked the Red Sea port city of
Hudeida, killed 19 policemen, and soldiers, took some soldiers hostage and
tool control of the port.
October 31, 2014: The United States made it clear that it believes the Shia
rebels are acting in cooperation with former dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh and
Saleh allies in the security forces. The U.S. believes that Saleh, who is a
Shia from the north, made a secret deal with the Shia rebels after being
forced out in 2012. Since then the Shia rebels have been able to take
control of the north, then the capital and are forcing the rest of the
country to submit to the new Shia controlled government. The U.S. wants the
UN to impose travel and financial sanctions on Saleh and two of the Shia
rebel leaders. The U.S. also claims that in September Shia rebels planned to
attack the American embassy in Yemen. The UN did impose sanctions on any
group that opposed the formation of a new government in Yemen but refused to
impose sanctions on individuals.
October 29, 2014: In the south Shia rebels took control of Radmah, a city
half way between the capital and the southern port of Aden. Local Sunni
tribesmen fought the Shia for 24 hours, were defeated and retreated. With
this the Shia control nearly all of Ibb province. Radmah was also a
stronghold for the Sunni Moslem Brotherhood party, but that did not prevent
the Shia takeover. In neighboring Bayda province the Shia rebels are still
fighting the local Sunni tribesmen and their AQAP allies.
October 28, 2014: In the south (Ibb province) advancing Shia rebels
encountered resistance from local Sunni tribesmen. There were over 30
casualties. The Shia had some artillery with them, operated by soldiers,
which they used. Local army units appeared to be cooperating with the Shia
rebels. Over the last three days over 250 have died as Shia rebels fought
local Sunnis for control of Ibb and Bayda provinces. In the ten days before
that fewer than a hundred died in the fighting down south. The tribes are
assisted by AQAP, which has made some suicide bombing attacks on Shia
gunmen.
October 27, 2014: In the south (Bayda province) Shia rebels pushed back
local Sunni tribesmen with the help of army artillery and rocket fire.
October 25, 2014: The oil pipeline to the coast resumed operations, a day
after Sunni tribesmen once more bombed it. The last attack was on October
16th and that one took two days to repair.
The government handed over control of the oil ministry to the Shia rebels
along with five other ministries. This effort to form a new government
failed when not all major parties would agree to how the ministries were
divided up among them.
October 24, 2014: In the southeast (Radda 130 kilometers from the capital)
an American UAV fired missiles at two vehicles carrying AQAP men, killing at
least a dozen of them.
October 19, 2014: Outside the capital Shia rebels dismantled a protestor
camp that had been blocking the road to the airport for weeks.
Iran has offered to provide security advice to the new Shia dominated
government.