Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2014 00:16:19 +0100
Frailty and Gladiatorial Combat in Somalia
Islamic Awakening
by <http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/author/abukararman/> Abukar Arman |
on November 6th, 2014 |
<http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2014/11/05/frailty-and-gladiatorial-combat-in
-somalia/#comments> 1 comment
It is that cyclical season of winner takes all. It is that all too familiar
gladiatorial executive combat all over again. Yes, the Villa Somalia has
once again turned into a roaring amphitheater. The president and his prime
minister are at each other's throat, and as engraved on the walls of the
theatre, the worst is yet to come.
Of course, there is nothing new in this latest drama. A year ago, after
current president - Hassan Sheikh Mohamud - succeeded in sacking his last
prime minister - Abdi Farah Shirdon - I co-authored an article with
Professor Afyare Elmi for Al Jazeera titled
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/12/somalia-spectre-political-
meltdown-20131211595397884.html> Spectre of Political Meltdown. In it we
argued that the problem is systemic and that it would reoccur again and
again so long as the system is not overhauled.
Likely Outcome
I am afraid this latest dramatic episode will most likely have the same
finale as the ten previous times when high-level political contention took
place in the past two or so decades. The prevalent scenario: The prime
minister would be sacked, and the president would be left severely bruised.
The outcome would further weaken the nation's barely existing institutions.
Furthermore, it
<http://unsom.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=6254&ctl=Details&mid=9770&It
emID=32554&language=en-US> would further corrupt parliament and severely
undermine the capacity of council of ministers by aborting continuity and
sustaining the culture of ushering in new clan-based ministers each year who
must start rolling up the boulder to the top of the hill. The miracle
scenario: international community would successfully pressure the contending
executives to put their acting hats on and finish their term together. In
both scenarios, the outcomes would be the same.
Meanwhile, systematic assassinations of parliament members, government
officials, and civilians with a sense of patriotism, experience or
institutional memory continues. Conveniently, each and every assassination
is attributed to that dreaded usual suspect, no questions asked!
A case in point: On Saturday after a car bomb killed a person and wounded at
least two others, the
<http://news.yahoo.com/deadly-car-bomb-attack-mogadishu-002146222.html>
Hodan District Police Commander had this reassurance to offer: "We are still
investigating the incident but we are convinced that [al Shabaab] terrorists
are behind the attack." This is not only the epitome of incompetent
policing; it is a dangerous public disservice. Now al Shabaab may very well
be the culprit, but, arbitrarily attributing them all such crimes only
emboldens other sinister characters (domestic and foreign) who might be
motivated to "settle old scores" or permanently eliminate one human obstacle
or another. Mogadishu has its share of such characters.
Galvanizing al-Shabaab
Make no mistake, this latest nasty political rancor within the executive
branch is likely to give boost to al Shabaab and motivate them to forget
about their differences and intensify their nihilistic objective of wreaking
havoc throughout Somalia.
Al Shabaab, though they lost a number of strategic cities and towns to
AMISOM and the Somali forces, they were not defeated in the battleground as
they done tactical retreat each time AMISOM and government forces approached
their locations. So, they still collect "taxes"; rather, Mafia-style
protection money from almost all areas that they do not technically control,
all the while planning their next deadly strategic move.
Phantom solution or fool's errand?
Against its better judgment as it relinquished its sovereign right to forge
a Somali-owned national salvation strategy, the current "permanent"
government, like the transitional ones before it, has illustrated its
chronic dependency and unwavering faithfulness in the schizophrenic
"international community" strategy into oblivion. Here I would respectfully
ignore
<https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=709588549125626&id=116576
108426876> President Mohamud's latest statement as it is nothing more than
rhetoric intended to clear the runway for a political fait accompli.
The government is expected to secure and stabilize the country by defeating
al Shabaab in the battle fields. Since it has no well-trained, adequately
equipped and consistently paid army, the government must rely heavily on
AMISOM which is under de facto Ethiopian command. While Ethiopia and Kenya
are publicly the most vociferous opposition to al Shabaab, both find its
threat as a convenient pretext for their respective strategic interests of
exploitation and keeping Somalia Balkanized.
Second, the government must put "development" before national reconciliation
and inclusively negotiated social contract. In the current arrangement, the
government and all other political entities and fiefdoms are to
<http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/somalia-oil-idUSL6N0SI3QV20141024
> contract out all resources and borrow heavily before system of checks and
balances is well established. The government and its miniature twins are
often lured into lavish international investment conferences for crisscross
contracting of the same oil blocks and same mining fields located in highly
disputed and volatile geographical areas.
Meanwhile, civilian individuals who are mostly from the diaspora and
businesses (foreign and domestic) continue to invest and lavishly build new
building and rebuild artillery-devastated old ones.
Third, government must facilitate and help develop federal states.
Considering the current constitution-a document that I refer to as "
<http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/08/07/a-constitution-of-ambiguity-and-de
ferment/> constitution of ambiguity and deferment" - any step forward toward
this end opens the curtain into a dizzying three-ring circus and a deadly
political freak show. There is not a single entity that declared itself as a
Federal State or declared its secession that is not built on active
fault-lines.
Candidly speaking, one has to be delusional to believe that Somalia is on
the right path to sustainable federalism or a negotiated secession. Every
argument that makes a good case for an Alpha clan to concoct a "federal
state" inadvertently makes a case for rivalry clan(s) to concoct their own
sub-federal state. The same is true for Somaliland's declared secession. The
current trajectory leads onto a slippery slope of perpetual partition,
hostilities and indeed bloodshed.
Fourth, government must build national institutions. While this particular
priority has especial merit in democratic societies, how sustainable would
these institutions prove in a broken nation that is yet to be repaired? To
make matters worse, under the current arrangement, building non-essential
ministries take precedence over reforming the judiciary system. For
instance, since year 2000 the establishment of a constitutional court to
arbitrate cases such as the one at hand has been suffering one setback after
another-always putting the cart before the horse.
Fifth, the government must outsource all reconciliation-related matters to
IGAD (read Ethiopia). Ethiopia has been the masterful political trickster in
the center stage of Somali politics. There is not a single militia group or
a political actor that it did not or does not empower and arm against
another Somali entity.
Addis Ababa is a busy hub. It is where Somalia's reprehensible political
dysfunction is showcased and Ethiopia's capacity to manage that dysfunction
and its byproduct is amplified. Higher officials from Mogadishu, Hargeisa,
Garowe, Kismayo, etc., make virtually biweekly visits to pay homage, attend
one futile meeting or another, take orders or to fill up their respective
political fuel tanks.
Meanwhile, their meager resources are drained and less fortunate Somalis are
deprived of food and essential public services.
Business continues as usual. Casting doubt on the necessity of a
comprehensive Somali-led genuine reconciliation, periodically, artificial
"reconciliation" powwows are organized only to further complicate matters by
forcing together clans with overlapping territorial claims and mutually
exclusive interests. Each time myopic concessions were made only to create
newer problems. Today, Somalia is on perilous tracks. Even Somaliland and
Puntland - once considered oases of peace - are manifestly unsustainable.
Resilience is a state mind; it is the willingness to rise above adversities
and misfortunes by consciously managing or changing one's outlook and
attitude. The Somali people have demonstrated their capacity to undergo such
process, whereas the "Somali elite" - political, intellectual and
traditional - still find the status quo exclusively empowering and, yes,
lucrative.
Soon the current episode would come to an end and our collective attention
would turn elsewhere. Already many have their eyes blindly casted on 2016,
when the current government's term is scheduled to end. Rest assured,
nothing would change before attitudes are adjusted and the system is
overhauled.
<http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2014/11/05/frailty-and-gladiatorial-combat-in
-somalia/executive/> Executive
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