The dangerous disintegration of Yemen
<
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Fouad-Siniora.ashx> Fouad Siniora
<
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Nov-13/AuthorArticles.a
spx?id=10833&link=> Amr Moussa
Nov. 13, 2014 | 12:26 AM
The latest events in <javascript:void(0)> Yemen came as a surprise to us,
and, like the majority of the surprises in the past few years, it was not a
pleasant one - rather, it was both worrying and confusing.
During 2011 and 2012, Yemen's course of events seemed similar to Tunisia's.
It's true that the abdication of Yemeni President <javascript:void(0)> Ali
Abdullah Saleh took a longer time and cost more lives, but the situation,
thanks to the initiative of the <javascript:void(0)> Gulf Cooperation
Council and the cooperation of the Security Council, was heading toward a
promising transitional phase.
What happened in Yemen hadn't happened in any of the other Arab countries
that witnessed revolutions: a comprehensive national dialogue was held, in
which all parties participated, including political parties involved in the
southern Yemen insurgency, the Houthis and the party of the former
president.
The dialogue dragged on and branched out, but it resulted in an almost
unanimous decision about the need for decentralization and the establishment
of new provinces, as well as the federalist and democratic nature of the
system, and the level of participation by all sides.
However, after that, the dialogue faltered, and deadlines were not met. And
we knew by asking the Yemenis we are in contact with that some of the GCC's
decrees weren't implemented (the restructuring of the army and security
forces, for example), and that some of the sides who participated in the
dialogue later objected to some of its outcomes.
Then events took a turn for the worse, with the fall of the Amran
governorate, the fall of Sanaa, and the spread of militants from Hudayda and
Hajjah toward the center of Yemen up until Al-Bayda and Marib. All of this,
and the army offered no resistance, giving up its bases and weapons to the
rebels. Meanwhile the transitional government gave up its responsibilities
and resigned, and the president attempted to calm the situation through the
peace and partnership agreement, none of which was implemented, just like
the agreements forged with Hezbollah after its militants took over Beirut in
May 7, 2008.
Maybe it would be beneficial to attempt to answer the confusing questions of
what happened: whether parties in the dialogue conspired against their
partners and the dialogue itself, why fighting broke out among army troops,
why the troops withdrew and whether any of them cooperated with the rebels.
But what we think is most important now is to look for a possible way or
ways out of the crises that are hitting Yemen today, have already hit Iraq,
<javascript:void(0)> Syria and Lebanon, and might hit another country
tomorrow.
Every Arab has an emotional connection with Yemen. In both legend and
history, Yemen is the origin of the Arabs. Yemenis comprise a major Arab
population in the Arabian Peninsula, approximately 30 million people. On top
of that, Yemen occupied a very important strategic location at the meeting
point of the Arab Sea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and is bordered by
Saudi Arabia and Oman. Despite its poor resources, rampant tribalism and the
weakness of its central authorities, Yemen could boast an important
achievement after the Cold War when it united its north and south in 1990.
Since 2004, we have been hearing about the rise of sectarianism and
fundamentalism in Yemen, a phenomenon never before witnessed by the country
in the last few centuries. Between 2004 and 2010, the Yemeni army waged six
wars in the far north of the country against rebels who became known as
Houthis. In fact, over the past 10 years, the Yemeni army has had to fight
on two fronts: against the Houthis' rebellion in northern Saada and its
surroundings, and against <javascript:void(0)> Al-Qaeda in the Arab
Peninsula in the center of Yemen and the south.
Today, it is said that the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (who still
exerts a large influence on the army) has allied with the Houthis since 2012
in order to remove his adversaries from power, in preparation for his return
to manage the country with the rebels, even if it's through a coup.
The fear now is not of the return of Saleh or his coup preparations under
the pretext of salvaging the situation. The fear is mainly of the breaking
up of Yemen into many statelets, and of the threat posed to the security of
other Gulf countries and to Arab security in general if Houthis, backed by
Iran, reach the southwestern Bab al-Mandeb strait.
We know that the international powers are in the Indian Ocean and in the
islands close to Yemen's shore and the Red Sea. But if Iran, which controls
the Strait of Hormuz and any oil shipments that pass through it, gets a
foothold in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, this will open up dangerous
possibilities related to the security of Egypt, the Gulf and the Arab world
generally, as well as affecting the civil wars and sectarian strife in which
<javascript:void(0)> Iran is involved - Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and Yemen.
Yemen is now exposed and threatened by the separation of the south, and by
the civil war in the north and the middle of the country. The Yemeni people
are at risk of falling between the terrorism of the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.
The biggest fear is that Al-Qaeda acquires an internal function in Yemen,
for example protecting Sunnis from Houthi sectarianism.
What to do? Most Yemenis found the internationally backed Gulf initiative to
be a solution and way out of the crisis. Then came the national dialogue
that could have achieved many things, such as preserving Yemen's unity,
enabling it to progress toward becoming a modern state and getting Arab and
international support for growth and development.
It is therefore necessary to go back to the Gulf initiative and for Arabs to
pressure the U.N. Security Council to act. There must also be an Arab
initiative that works on uniting the Yemeni army in order to secure Yemeni
cities and rid them of illegal weaponry and moves the country toward
parliamentary elections that will determine the future and the sizes of
political forces, without the influence of arms or the control of militants.
It is still possible to do this, but what will push Houthis to withdraw from
the cities they occupy? No one can do this but the army; it's the army that
protected Yemen's unity in 1994 and it is the only power that wasn't
affected much by sectarian and tribal factors.
Is it possible to take the army away from the influence of the former
president? The international envoy <javascript:void(0)> Jamal Bin Omar
considers this to be possible. But Arabs, especially those from the Gulf,
will have to do everything possible to resolve the crisis in Yemen. We must
not allow ourselves to stop caring about Yemen's unity, stability and Arab
credentials; if we did so, what has happened in Syria and
<javascript:void(0)> Iraq might happen in Yemen too.
What happened and is happening in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq is worrying
for the Arabs and for Arab national security. But it also invites us, after
the failure and splits that have appeared, to think practically and
seriously about the future.
We have considered before the possibility of economic, political and
strategic Arab integration, and an Arab Court of Justice, but there was no
active follow-up process and these ideas were never implemented.
Therefore, we demand today that steps are taken to expand the concept of a
joint Arab defense body by discussing the components of regional and Arab
security in light of the escalating threats. This includes looking into
creating a joint Arab force on land, sea and in the air that protects peace
and deters threats to the whole Arab region. We invite the Arab League to
study these ideas and work on adopting them and putting them into effect.
Fouad Siniora is Lebanon's former prime minister and a current member of the
Lebanese Parliament. <javascript:void(0)> Amr Moussa is an Egyptian
politician and diplomat and former secretary-general of the Arab League.
Received on Fri Nov 14 2014 - 18:49:00 EST