Date: Wed Nov 19 18:05:35 2014
New Approaches Are Needed for State-Building in Somalia360°ANALYSIS
* By Dominik Balthasar
<http://www.fairobserver.com/author/Dominik%20Balthasar>
* • November 19, 2014
Dominik Balthasar is a Researcher and Analyst with the Transatlantic
Postdoctoral Fellowship for International Relations and Security, in the
framewor
In order to maintain the momentum in Somalia’s transition, policy space
needs to be opened up to advance the country’s state-building process.
Having reached a milestone with the installation of the Federal Government
of <http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=somalia> Somalia (FGS) in September
2012, hope and optimism for a Somali future marked by peace and stability
ran high. Bolstered by important military gains the
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=african+union> African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) had scored against
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=al-shabab> al-Shabab, a
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=jihadist> jihadist group, since 2011,
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=somali> Somali President
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=hassan+sheikh+mohamud> Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
devised policy options that were both coherent and pragmatic, thus deepening
confidence among international donors.
In January 2013, the <http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=United+States> US
administration recognized the new Somali leadership, with other foreign
governments and international organizations following suit. When the
outgoing European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy Catherine Ashton
<http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/somalia/documents/press_corner/31012013.p
df> declared that “Somalia is no longer a failed state,” international
donors echoed her optimism by pledging billions of dollars for the
reconstruction of the country during aid conferences in
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=london> London, Yokohama and
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=brussels> Brussels between May and September
2013.
Yet just over two years after having taken office, the outlook appears bleak
for Mohamud. Al-Shabab is far from defeated and continues to carry out
regular attacks; the process of writing a new, permanent constitution has
reached a deadlock; and the federalism process has proven to be a source of
conflict. Violence surrounding the emergence of the Interim Jubba
Administration (IJA) in May 2013 was replicated in Baidoa in March 2014,
when competing factions tried to establish federal member states in southern
Somalia.
Moreover, as had been the case during the transitional era, corruption
continues unabated, and political infighting has weakened the government.
After Prime Minister <http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=abdi+farah+shirdon>
Abdi Farah Shirdon lost a vote of confidence in parliament in December 2013,
President Mohamud had to fight for his own political survival when over 100
legislators demanded his resignation in May 2014. Consequently, donor
confidence has been dented.
Against this backdrop, there seems to be a real danger that Somalia will
fail again. Although some progress has certainly been made during the tenure
of Mohamud, his government is a long way from standing on its own feet. In
security, economic and political terms, the government appears to be as
dependent on its multiple international partners as was the case for the
preceding transitional federal governments.
_____
Yet just over two years after having taken office, the outlook appears bleak
for Mohamud. Al-Shabab is far from defeated and continues to carry out
regular attacks…
_____
What is more, some of the progress made in the political sphere may have
serious repercussions for the development of the state. While the FGS has
undoubtedly advanced Somalia’s federal agenda, the ad-hoc nature of this
process risks contributing to continued fragility, deepened fragmentation
and the reinvigoration of al-Shabab. These challenges, while frustrating,
are hardly unusual in the context of state-building, which has historically
proven to be a conflict-prone and drawn-out process.
A Rethink is Needed
For these reasons, neither Somali, nor international policymakers should
resign themselves to failure. Yet rather than proceeding with business as
usual, they should scrutinize and rethink their past and current approaches
to state-building. Casting a critical eye over more accomplished
state-building endeavors in the region is helpful in shedding light on the
broad range of possible alternatives.
In this context, it is useful to refer to the case of
<http://www.fairobserver.com/?s=somaliland> Somaliland, long praised by
international observers for its remarkable state-building effort. While
Somaliland is a complicated example — it is neither an outright “success
story,” nor does it “teach lessons” that are readily applicable to Somalia —
it raises some important questions for Somali policymakers and their
international counterparts to consider.
These questions range from whether to prioritize constitution-writing and
democratization in state-building endeavors, to the elite’s need for a
“political budget,” to the balance that must be struck between bottom-up and
top-down approaches. Definitive answers to these questions are hard to come
by, but the Somaliland case conveys a clear message: There is more than one
path that leads to Rome. Consequently, international policymakers and their
local partners in Somalia might benefit from taking a closer look at
Somaliland’s state-building trajectory, which followed an unconventional
path compared with approaches in Somalia and elsewhere.
A <http://csis.org/publication/thinking-beyond-roadmaps-somalia> report by
this author, published by the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, traces Somaliland’s trajectory and juxtaposes it with the one
presently envisioned for Somalia, arguing that there are a broad range of
possible state-building avenues to follow. While Somalia’s state-building
framework — the European Union- and Somalia-brokered Somali Compact —
prioritizes the passage of a permanent constitution, the establishment of a
federal governance system and the holding of popular elections, Somaliland
followed a different path, at least during the first decade after its
unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.
By proposing that state-building can follow various pathways, this study
opens up much needed policy space and encourages Somalis and their
international partners to think more flexibly and creatively about the way
ahead. In concrete terms, Somali stakeholders and their international
counterparts should consider prioritizing the creation and development of
livelihoods at the “bottom” over legalistic and procedural aspects of
state-building at the “top.” Moreover, the report suggests that greater
efforts must be made to enhance social cohesion and national unity, which
would not only boost Somalia’s state-building efforts, but would also
address the grievances that provide al-Shabab with its recruitment message.
State-building is an inherently conflictive, incrementally evolving,
haphazard process, requiring tough choices to be made, setbacks to be
accommodated and risks to be taken. If Somalia is to find its own answers to
some of the key state-building conundrums Somaliland poses, its leaders need
a flexible attitude and a good dose of inspiration. While the “New Deal”
framework for aid effectiveness in fragile states, which Somalia embraced
with the Somali Compact, is designed to provide Somalia’s political elite
with additional policy space, taking a closer look at Somaliland’s
state-building trajectory may prove inspirational.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not
necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
Vlad Galenko <http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-1394389p1.html> /
Shutterstock.com <http://www.shutterstock.com/>
http://fon.fairobserver.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/piereg_users_files
/7932/file_4160147565-120x120.jpgDominik Balthasar
<http://www.fairobserver.com/author/Dominik%20Balthasar>
(image/jpeg attachment: image001.jpg)