Somalia: The Pitfalls of Power-Sharing in Somalia
<
http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/182512> Jason Mosley
Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
20 November 2014
Political infighting in Somalia is threatening to set back the
implementation of the country's timetable towards elections in 2016. The
latest dispute is a contest over institution-building, and may represent
something of a turning point in the federal project.
Somalia's leaders and international donors are gathered in Copenhagen for
the High Level Partnership Forum meeting on 19-20 November, where they are
intending to trumpet security achievements made in the last year and
reinforce momentum for the federal government of Somalia's Vision 2016
agenda - which includes the formation of member states, reform and adoption
of the 2012 draft constitution, and establishment of electoral institutions
ahead of the polls.
However, political wrangling in Mogadishu is overshadowing the Copenhagen
meeting, with the looming prospect of Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed,
in place only since February, becoming the second premier to lose a
no-confidence motion in parliament since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
took office two years ago.
Such an outcome would likely usher in a period of weeks - perhaps months -
of negotiations over his replacement and the formation of a new cabinet.
Nicholas Kay, the UN secretary-general's special representative, drew the
ire of a variety of parties to the conflict with a statement on 2 November,
in which he called for political unity and commitment to the Vision 2016
agenda, but also raised concerns about reports that vote-buying could be
involved in any no-confidence motion.
The United States signalled its concern by suggesting it would curtail its
participation in the Copenhagen meeting. Donors are rightly anxious that
valuable time will be lost with infighting, threatening progress on
institution-building and meeting the electoral agenda.
On 17 November more than half of cabinet members signed a letter calling for
Abdiweli to resign. Barring a major external intervention, it would appear
that the prime minister's dismissal is imminent.
Much attention has focused on the structural dimensions of the current
stand-off. The provisional constitution vests executive authority with the
prime minister, with the president intended to play a balancing role between
the cabinet and parliament. Following eight years of dysfunction and
infighting under the transitional federal government (TFG), the new
constitutional dispensation was intended to limit the power of the
presidency.
However, President Hassan Sheikh has taken a robust interpretation of his
mandate, which donors have tended to countenance - seeing in his civil
society background a potential partner with whom they could work, and who
would mark a significant departure from the domination of politics by former
warlords under the TFG.
Moreover, the constitutional mandate of the premier quickly brought Abdiweli
(like his predecessor Abdi Farah Shirdon) into conflict with the presidency,
and with the Damul Jadid faction of al-Islah (Somalia's Muslim Brotherhood),
which backed Hassan Sheikh's presidential bid.
That said, this contest is about more than structural issues related to the
rents available to those who control key government offices, processes and
aid flows.
There are signs that the motivation for the present infighting is linked to
the question of building the judiciary. Competition is fierce between
different conservative Islamist visions over how sharia will form the base
of Somalia's constitutional order, and how the country's nascent judicial
apparatus will evolve to interpret and implement such an order.
The conflict began around mid-2014, as a row emerged between Attorney
General Ahmed Ali Dahir and Chief Justice Aidid Abdullahi Ilka-Xanaf.
The chief justice has accused the Ministry of Justice of interference in the
independence of the judiciary. The president approved Dahir's appointment in
late July, after his predecessor Abdikadir Mohamed Muse was dismissed. But
the chief justice questioned the legality of Muse's dismissal, and promised
an investigation. In turn, the attorney general's office has claimed that
dozens of judges are operating without having been properly appointed, with
the president dismissing 21 judges in October.
Matters came to head when Abdiweli attempted to sideline Justice and
Constitutional Affairs Minister Farah Sheikh Abdulqadir, who has been
driving the judicial reform process (and who nominated Dahir), in a cabinet
reshuffle on 25 October.
The prime minister was attempting to weaken the presidency's influence in
the judiciary, and by extension to counter the influence of Damul Jadid (of
which Farah is a prominent member) on the delivery of justice and the
constitutional debate.
The intensity of the conflict is an indication that a range of stakeholders
see the process of building Somalia's judiciary as more than window-dressing
for donors; this is a genuine political and ideological battle over one of
the country's most important institutions. Although this indicates that the
federal project has gained traction in some important ways, it remains
likely that the current infighting will significantly undermine the 2016
timetable.
Jason Mosley is an Associate Fellow of the Africa Programme of Chatham
House.
Received on Thu Nov 20 2014 - 16:29:34 EST