Turmoil in the Horn of Africa is interconnected
<
http://dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Nov-21/AuthorArticles.aspx?
id=10861&link=> David Shinn| The Daily Star
Nov. 20, 2014 | 12:11 AM
Another refugee and internally displaced person crisis is looming in the
Horn of Africa. This time it is coming from and taking place in South Sudan.
Having been independent for just over three years following its separation
from Sudan, South <javascript:void(0)> Sudan now faces a catastrophe of its
own making. The large displacement of South <javascript:void(0)> Sudanese
could result in millions of people facing famine.In mid-December 2013
conflict broke out in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, between South
Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit's mostly Dinka supporters and former
Vice President Riek Machar's mostly Nuer followers. Machar had served as
vice president of South Sudan until Kiir removed him from office in July
2013. The situation quickly deteriorated into a broader ethnic conflict
between the Dinka and the Nuer that enveloped most of the eastern part of
South Sudan. Cease-fire agreements have been breached and the violence in
the country continues.
The most devastating impact has been the massive displacement of the South
Sudanese people. South Sudan, which has a population of about 11 million
people, currently has almost 1.5 million internally displaced persons. The
<javascript:void(0)> United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports
that, since the outbreak of the conflict in December 2013, some 194,000
South Sudanese have fled to neighboring Ethiopia. There they joined about
63,000 of their countrymen who had already fled following an earlier
conflict in the region.
The fighting has also caused some 130,000 South Sudanese to flee to Uganda,
another 107,000 to depart for Sudan, and 44,000 to seek refuge in Kenya. A
number of experts familiar with the situation in South Sudan suggest that
the total refugee flow to neighboring countries could reach as high as 2
million people. Should this occur, it would overwhelm the efforts of the
UNHCR, neighboring governments and humanitarian organizations.
While the UNHCR seeks to care for the refugees in Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan
and Kenya, the internally displaced persons in South Sudan rely on the
insufficient efforts of United Nations agencies and non-governmental
organizations to meet their food and shelter needs. More than 100,000 of
them have sought protection at the military bases operated by the United
Nations' peacekeeping mission in South Sudan.
The Gambella region of <javascript:void(0)> Ethiopia has borne the brunt of
the refugee influx and can be expected to receive many more refugees if the
conflict continues after the rainy season comes to an end. Ethiopia has
considerable experience with refugees from South Sudan. Gambella is not
strategically located in terms of the Ethiopian government's control of the
country. Unless the number of new arrivals increases exponentially, the
situation will not likely pose a threat to the security of Ethiopia. This is
primarily a humanitarian crisis that we are witnessing.
The first priority is to end the fighting in South Sudan so that internally
displaced persons can begin to return home and refugees can come back home
from neighboring countries. This will not happen until the government and
rebel leaders agree to put the needs of the South Sudanese people before
their own hunger for personal power. Reaching such an outcome will require
that the international community - especially the United States, the
European Union, China and South Sudan's neighbors - increase the sanctions
and pressure on the leaders of all the parties that are involved in the
current conflict.
Until the combatants lay down their arms and begin a process that will
result in a viable government that engages in national reconciliation, the
international community needs to provide additional funding for
organizations such as the UNHCR, the World Food Program, and
non-governmental groups to assist those internally displaced persons and
refugees who have been caught in the middle of the fighting.
The <javascript:void(0)> Horn of Africa has been one of the most
conflict-prone regions in the world since the end of World War II. The
situation in South Sudan over the past year underscores this point and
underscores the fragility of the broader region as well. Inevitably,
conflict in one country in the Horn of Africa has negative implications for
neighboring countries.
David Shinn served for 37 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, including as
U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso and Ethiopia. He is now an adjunct professor
in the <javascript:void(0)> Elliott School of International Affairs at
George
Received on Thu Nov 20 2014 - 17:26:50 EST