Changing Prime Minister once a year will not benefit Somalia's future
By Yusuf M. Hassan
Posted on
<
http://africanarguments.org/2014/11/21/changing-prime-ministers-once-a-year
-will-not-benefit-somalias-future-by-yusuf-m-hassan/> November 22, 2014
Somalia's Federal Parliament was closed on Nov. 11th and 15th after a group
of MPs
<
http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-somali-lawmakers-debate-whether-to-sack-
pm/2515844.html> disrupted proceedings by shouting, banging on tables, and
some waving protest signs that read "No Cash for Votes" and "Somali
Democracy in Action". The MPs are deeply divided over a no-confidence motion
against the Prime Minister, Dr. Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed, who has been in
office less than a year. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his Cabinet
allies, including 14 ministers that signed a Nov. 13th letter calling for
Dr. Ahmed's resignation, support the motion.
The Prime Minister says he is ready
<
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-somalia-politics-idUSKCN0J11MR
20141117> to accept any Minister's resignation and defends his Oct. 25th
decision, which ignited the current political feud after President Hassan
<
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/26/us-somalia-politics-idUSKBN0IF0LM
20141026> rejected the Cabinet re-shuffle. The political divide continues to
widen, polarize the country and weaken its fledgling institutions. It has
also triggered a litany of public statements by the U.N., E.U., U.S., and
U.K., warning that the political standoff undermines recent progress and
plans for 2016 elections. The AP reports that the U.S. has threatened aid
cuts and has already cancelled participation at the
<
http://www.hlpfcopenhagen.dk/about-the-high-level-partnership-forum-copenha
gen> High-Level Partnership Forum for Somalia, to be held in Copenhagen,
Nov. 19-20, 2014.
U.N. Special Envoy to Somalia Nicholas Kay's
<
http://hiiraan.com/news4/2014/Nov/66925/un_envoy_to_somalia_expresses_deep_
concern_over_political_tensions_urges_unity_and_continuity.aspx#sthash.gyvtJ
5P3.dpbs> strongly worded press statement citing "allegations of some MPs
being asked to exchange votes for cash in the context of a potential 'No
Confidence' motion," sent shock-waves throughout the Somali political
landscape. While some MPs heeded Mr. Kay's remarks, other have MPs
<
http://www.jowhar.com/?p=4574> demanded his apology.
President Hassan has been defiant in his response to international criticism
and pressure. In a Nov. 3rd
<
http://www.raxanreeb.com/2014/11/somalia-the-president-respect-for-somalias
-right-to-self-determination-is-critical/> press release, he acknowledged
the international community's support to Somalia, detailed the government's
past achievements and its goals ahead of 2016 elections, and urged the world
to "respect Somalia's sovereign right".
This public exchange is indicative of the tense relations between the
Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the donor community. Evidently,
private dialogue has failed to achieve an understanding and diplomats
resorted to public statements to exert additional pressure on Somali
leaders.
The dispute between the two leaders is part of a wider conflict over power
and position between President and Prime Minister. Rooted in vague
constitutional provisions, the dispute is intensified by clan and political
rivalries, misinterpretation of federalism, media sensationalism, and the
international community's competing policies and interests. The Somali
people aspire for a re-instituted nation-state that is peaceful, united,
democratic and economically viable, but the struggle between centralist and
federalist thinkers further complicates the federal arrangement.
As Prime Minister Ahmed steered the formation of two new states, some
believe his federalization push instigated the political impasse after
colliding with centralist forces in Mogadishu. Contrary to current events,
federalism was adopted in 2004 to accommodate the historic autonomy of
Somali communities, advance reconciliation and social repair, encourage
state formation through consensus building processes, and preserve a
cohesive national identity.
The donor community's distrust of the Somali government has its merits. The
U.N. Monitoring Group's 2014 report publicized allegations that the
<
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us-somalia-arms-un-idUSKCN0HZ2292
0141010> Somali army sells weapons on markets and engages in clan fighting,
<
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/somalia-oil-idUKL6N0SI3QV20141024>
federal oil negotiations could 'spark conflict' if Mogadishu fails to engage
state authorities in consultations, and that corruption
<
http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-hunt-for-funds-somalia-found-trouble-1412
129572> allegations at the Central Bank damaged the donors' trust in the FGS
to deliver on public finance reforms.
Somalia suffers the legacy of conflict, institutional collapse and economic
ruin; consequently, no one expects this country to recover quickly. However,
the current political turmoil is a sign of a familiar saga: since 2004,
Presidents and Prime Ministers have disputed, divided the country and
crippled the government's capacity to function. Confidence motions by
Federal Parliament have produced seven Prime Ministers in 10 years and
exposed the political system's fundamental flaws. Some experts have even
called for abolition of the position of Prime Minister, but this move might
result in unintended consequences because the two positions are designed to
encourage power sharing among large constituencies.
In recent months, Somali troops aided by AMISOM peacekeepers have secured
territory from insurgents and eased the flow of aid in the southern regions.
Beyond counterterrorism, the government is distracted by political feuds and
failing to capitalize on the momentum by accelerating political progress on
par with security gains. The FGS needs to implement a multi-dimensional
strategy that builds working partnerships with the regions, addresses the
root causes of conflict, institutionalizes constitutional governance, and
enhances socio-economic vitality. A peaceful Somalia could benefit from its
natural wealth - in agriculture, fisheries and energy sectors - and join the
economic cooperation and integration of East Africa, compete in global
markets and realize an economic transformation.
But a strategy founded on consultations and priorities is manifestly absent,
and Somali leaders alone are not to blame. The international community has,
at times, pursued policies that have been counter-productive or misguided.
To disrupt funding sources for insurgents, for example, the U.N. Security
Council adopted Resolution 2182 on Oct. 24th, authorizing any foreign
government the
<
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/un-orders-ship-searches-to-find-al
-shabaab-s-charcoal.html> powers of maritime interdiction in Somalia's
territorial waters to prevent banned charcoal exports. The Somali Delegation
at the U.N. welcomed the move, but this wide-ranging authorization does not
attempt to address the condition of instability, but rather aims to apply
First Aid mechanics on its symptoms.
To its credit, the FGS has engaged the states of
<
http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/newsbriefs/2014/10/14/n
ewsbrief-01> Puntland and Jubaland, facilitated formation of Southwest and
Central states, and
<
http://news.yahoo.com/somalia-sues-kenya-top-un-court-over-maritime-2259462
78.html> challenged Kenya in international court in a row over maritime
boundaries. Mogadishu has also engaged in talks with the separatist region
of Somaliland, but that process alienates other key stakeholders and should
be more inclusive to achieve broader objectives.
The tasks ahead are critical for the country's future and require
disciplined leadership. The political process is exposed to further
polarization that undermines progress and international commitments, and
perpetuates the cycle of conflict and suffering; this, in turn, feeds
extremism, terrorism, piracy and general instability in Africa's
longest-running conflict.
By 2016, Somalia is to complete the state formation process, engage in
federal-state negotiations to produce a final Federal Constitution, conduct
a constitutional referendum, and hold national elections. Bickering leaders
betray the nation and these monumental tasks require leaders with vision and
discipline to consolidate peace and unity, build institutions, and propel
Somalia on the road to economic growth. Changing Prime Minister once a year
will not benefit Somalia's future.
Yusuf M. Hassan, a Somali-American journalist, is a political and media
analyst on Somalia and Horn of Africa affairs. He formerly served as
Puntland government adviser. Twitter: _at_yhassan_
Received on Sat Nov 22 2014 - 12:42:35 EST