November 24, 2014: The Shia rebels, despite having Shia appointed to many
senior positions in the government and security forces, have still not
withdrawn their gunmen from the capital. Over 2,000 Shia have been added to
the government payroll since September. Most of the jobs the Shia took were
key ones that controlled lots of non-Shia employees. The Shia don't have the
trained manpower to replace all the Sunni civil servants, but they do have
unity and lots of armed men motivated to kill-or-be-killed to enforce their
directives. Shia gunmen control most of the checkpoints in the capital,
which are often draped with flags saying "Death to America" or "Death to
Israel." The Shia forces have arrested over a thousand people and keep them
in secret locations. The Shia have established a dozen courts to try
criminals (or anyone who opposes the Shia).
The Shia takeover of the government has caused Yemeni border security to
collapse. Most of the border guards have left their posts leaving the Saudis
to deal with a lot more smugglers and illegal migrants. This is a major
problem because the border is 1,700 kilometers long and most of it is with
Saudi Arabia. Yemeni smugglers make a lot of money getting people across and
then transporting them north to where the oil and jobs are. Many migrants,
who can afford it, keep going to Europe. In a normal year (when the bribable
Yemeni border guards are on duty) the Saudi border troops catch and turn
back over a million illegal migrants, but several hundred thousand are
believed to get through, at least based on the number later found to have
settled in the north or made their way to Europe where they were
interrogated by police there. The big problem here is that some of those
getting through are Islamic terrorists and that's why the Saudis also stop
those trying to cross illegally into Yemen. But with the Shia rebel success
in Yemen the Saudis are now concerned with Iran-backed Shia terrorists and
spies coming north. The Saudis could invade Yemen to deal with the problem
but even the Sunni majority down there is divided, and not all factions are
agreeable to a Saudi intervention. It is a very unpleasant situation for the
Saudis.
All the fighting this year has reduced government oil income by a third. The
oil money comprises about half the government income. So far this year Yemen
has only produced 11 million barrels of oil, compared to 16 million last
year. Inflation is over 10 percent and foreign exchange reserves (to pay
for imports) are rapidly declining. The economy is a mess, many people are
hungry and the population in general is in a foul mood.
Iran is believed to be secretly supporting the Shia rebels. The U.S. and the
Sunni Arab Gulf States (particularly Saudi Arabia) see the recent changes in
Yemen as an Iranian ploy to gain greater influence, if not control, in
Yemen. This is being done with the help of deposed (in 2012) president Saleh
who obtained immunity from prosecution (for past crimes) in return for
leaving peacefully. But Saleh still had many allies, including many in the
security forces. A purge of the security forces did not change this as much
as the new government thought. Saleh has kept his head down as the Shia
rebels took control of the capital and the government in October, but his
influence is difficult to ignore. On the plus side the current (nominally
Sunni dominated) government and the Shia rebels agree on the need to destroy
AQAP and the Islamic terrorists are losing ground as the Shia forces move
south. But once the Shia take Aden, they will have a more difficult time in
western Yemen, which is largely desert, Sunni and thinly populated. Lots of
hiding places and a difficult area to control, for anyone. At the moment the
Shia advance is stalled in central Yemen, but the Shia are still advancing,
just a lot slower against increased resistance. Iran has not actively
intervened in Yemen and the Sunni Arab states that border Yemen are not
willing to invade to thwart the Shia rebels. This is because it's not just
Iran and the Shia rebels who are the problem but all the factions there. The
Shia are only a third of the population but they are united while the Sunni
majority is split into numerous factions.
November 23, 2014: The government has agreed to install Shia military
leaders into the army and police. The Shia rebels demanded this but the
government resisted doing it until now.
November 21, 2014: AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) openly
denounced ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant). This is a reversal as in
mid-October AQAP announced that it supported (but had not joined) ISIL. Both
groups are affiliated with al Qaeda which, since the 1990s, has been
dedicated to overthrowing the Saudi monarchy. However, AQAP has now decided
that ISIL is too divisive and harming global efforts of Islamic terrorists
to conquer and rule the world as an Islamic state. AQAP reaffirmed its
allegiance to al Qaeda. AQAP was formed in 2009 after the remnants of the
Saudi al Qaeda organization (several thousand full and part time members at
its peak) fled to Yemen and merged with the Yemeni al Qaeda branch. AQAP
also benefitted from hundreds of Iraqi al Qaeda members who arrived after
the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq in 2007-8. Some of these men returned to Iraq
after a few years to join what became ISIL. Meanwhile growing unrest in
Yemen (against the long-standing Saleh dictatorship) enabled AQAP to recruit
locally and take over several towns in southern Yemen by 2011. In 2012 the
new post-Saleh government launched a counteroffensive and AQAP got hurt very
badly. That offensive continued, along with the growing use of American UAVs
in Yemen. In April 2014 another major offensive was launched against AQAP by
the U.S. and Yemen and this succeeded in capturing all the new bases AQAP
had established in remote mountain areas after the 2012 defeat. That was
followed by Shia rebels moving south and going after the Sunni Islamic
terrorists there. While the al Qaeda situation is desperate in Yemen, AQAP
is still al Qaeda's most capable branch and the only one that has shown any
ability to support attacks (few successful so far) in the West. Now that
capability is in doubt, for a while at least. All this has been good news
for Saudi Arabia which has always been the primary foreign target for AQAP
attacks. Meanwhile the United States still considered AQAP a threat to the
West and continues to track AQAP activity in Yemen and attack AQAP members
via UAV launched missiles.
November 20, 2014: In the capital gunfire was heard from the base of the
Special Forces as officers loyal to former president Saleh tried to take
control. The rebels were defeated and were replaced the next day by officers
loyal to the government.
November 18, 2014: In Taez, capital of Taez province (inland, near the Red
Sea coast) a prominent Sunni politician died when a bomb planted in his car
went off. Taez is dominated by separatist Sunni tribes who often support
AQAP. The Taez based tribes have been resisting the advance of the Shia
rebels.
November 15, 2014: In the south (Baida province) Islamic terrorists clashed
with advancing Shia rebels. The fighting went on for three days producing
several hundred casualties including at least 80 dead. AQAP has long been
strong in Baida, recruiting from the separatist Sunni tribes in the area.
But the Shia rebels have been moving south for over a month and defeating
the Sunni Islamic terrorists, often after hard fighting and cooperation (or
simply neutrality) from local army units.
November 13, 2014: In the south (Baida province) Islamic terrorists set off
a car bomb in the Shia controlled town of Rada, killing over twenty people.
There have been several attacks like this in Rada over the last week.
November 12, 2014: In the south (Shabwa province) seven Islamic terrorists
were killed by missiles from an American UAV. The dead were members of AQAP
and were found to be in the midst planning terror attacks.
November 10, 2014: The United States announced economic and travel sanctions
on former president Saleh and two Shia rebel leaders.
November 9, 2014: In the east (of the capital in Marib province) Shia rebels
took control of an army base after a half hour of fighting. Some soldiers
sided with the Shia and that helped cause the defense to collapse quickly.
The base was used for training troops and for weapons storage (in several
warehouses and parking lots for armored vehicles).
November 8, 2014: Shia rebels and the party of former president Saleh
rejected the newly formed government. This government was supposed to be
acceptable as it contained a lot more Shia officials. This rejection was
believed to be a reaction to UN sanctions on rebel leaders the day before.
Without Shia approval of the new government the Shia are not obliged (by the
September ceasefire agreement) to withdraw their armed men from the capital.
November 7, 2014: The UN announced economic and travel sanctions on former
president Saleh and two Shia rebel leaders.
November 6, 2014: The oil pipeline to the Red Sea was bombed again, halting
flow of oil and much needed income for the government. The 320 kilometer
long pipeline extends from oil fields in Marib province to the Red Sea
export terminal.
November 5, 2014: In the south five Islamic terrorists were killed by
missiles from an American UAV. The dead were members of AQAP and one of the
dead was a local leader.
In the capital three mortar shells hit the runway of the airport outside the
city.
November 4, 2014: In the south (Baida province) more than ten Islamic
terrorists were killed outside Rada by missiles from an American UAV. The
dead were members of AQAP and were fighting advancing Shia rebels.