Ethiopia: Desalegn’s Distraction? An Analysis of Recent Developments
by Fikrejesus Amahazion |
September 2, 2014
Several weeks ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn conducted
an interview in which he threatened northern neighbor, Eritrea. Desalegn
warned that Ethiopia has shifted its policy towards Eritrea, and is now
determined to unseat Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki by force. The
interview was quickly followed by news that the Red Sea Afar Democratic
Organisation (RSADO) - a <
http://www.trackingterrorism.org/about> terrorist
<
http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?chart=overtime&search=RSAD
O> group harbored and financed by Ethiopia - has vowed to “step up military
attacks” to topple the Eritrean government.
While the respective statements are serious - in that they precipitously
challenge, if not flagrantly violate, accepted international norms, laws,
and diplomatic protocols - they do not constitute “breaking developments”
per se. For example, prior to his passing, the late Meles Zenawi had
similarly changed Ethiopia’s policy toward Eritrea from one based on “no
war-no peace” to the active pursuit of “regime change” in Asmara.
Further, the RSADO has made similar threats in the past. Rather, the
developments are possibly better understood within the broader context of
Ethiopia’s own internal socio-political challenges and dynamics.
In the fields of political science and international relations, the
diversionary theory of war and foreign policy is one of the most speculated
about and debated concepts. Most simply, it argues that political leaders
who are confronted with public antagonism over domestic economic, social,
and political problems may seek to divert the populace’s attention from
domestic problems and strife by focusing upon external issues - thus hoping
to survive politically. Shifting national attention to an external entity or
topic can absolve vulnerable leaders of blame, produce a “rally around the
flag” effect, garner support or buy time for leaders.
Within this analytical framework, Desalegn’s remarks offer much insight. By
shifting the emphasis to Eritrea, Desalegn removes the spotlight from his
own government’s crises and troubles as it continues to face rising popular
discontent with its various policies, crackdowns, and interference in
socio-religious affairs. Further, with “democratic elections” on the near
horizon, the comments serve to burgeon Desalegn’s image as a strong leader.
The Ethiopian regime’s challenges - and response via harsh repression and
silencing of all forms of dissent - were highlighted by the April arrest
(and ongoing detention) of the
<
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/28/ethiopia-arrests-upstage-kerry-visit>
“Zone 9″ bloggers.Troublingly for Desalegn, the issue refuses to “go
away” and instead has garnered increasing
<
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2014/07/28/the-world-tweets-for-ethiopias-zon
e9-bloggers-on-july-31/> international attention and
<
http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/201407311958-0023995> condemnation. As
well, coinciding with the arrests were mass protests by Oromo civilians,
especially students, condemning the “Addis Ababa Master Plan.” This led to
a <
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/05/ethiopia-brutal-crackdown-protests>
brutal crackdown by Ethiopian authorities and scores of arrests, injuries,
and deaths.
The simmering discontent within Ethiopia was mirrored by
<
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/05/world/africa/meeting-in-washington-of-afr
ican-leaders-opens-to-protests.html?_r=0> protests in Washington, DC during
the recent US-Africa Summit. Hundreds of Ethiopian protesters gathered
outside the State Department to vociferously denounce the Ethiopian
government and also demand the US “stop funding [Ethiopia’s] dictators.”
In addition to the various protests, the government faces an
<
http://www.hrw.org/node/74305> ongoing insurgency by the separatist Ogaden
National Liberation Front (ONLF). In attempting to counter the ONLF, the
Ethiopian army has engaged in
<
http://www.hrw.org/features/ogaden-war-crimes-ethiopia-0> executions, rape,
torture, arbitrary arrests, and various other abuses. Ethnic groups residing
within and around the region have endured arbitrary detentions, torture, and
mistreatment in detention, as well as severe restrictions on movement and
commercial trade, and minimal access to independent relief assistance - all
of which serves to inflame ethno-regional tensions and support the
resistance.
Although Desalegn leads a country that has witnessed some economic growth,
and improvement in agriculture - which accounts for nearly half of
Ethiopia’s economic activity - much of the progress has actually been
driven by an out of control “
<
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2014/01/ethiopia-land-sa
le-20141289498158575.html> land grab.” Many multinational companies and
private speculators vie to lease millions of acres of the country’s most
fertile territory from the government at bargain basement prices.
Consequently, this has engendered numerous
<
http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/development-aid-ethiopia> rights violations
(particularly via villagization programs), much discontent, and growing
resistance by indigenous communities. Further, national poverty and drastic
inequalities remain prevalent. Around 90 percent of the population of 94
million still suffers from
<
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2014/01/ethiopia-land-sa
le-20141289498158575.html> numerous deprivations, ranging from insufficient
access to education to inadequate health care; average incomes are still
well <
http://data.worldbank.org/country/ethiopia> below $500 a year; and
more than 30 million people still face chronic food shortages.
Overall, Desalegn’s recent comments regarding Eritrea remain aligned with
previous stances taken by the Ethiopian government. Further, they serve to
deflect attention away from the Ethiopian regime’s serious internal
challenges and popular discontent. With “democratic elections” on the near
horizon - which have historically involved widespread tension, violence, and
crackdowns - Desalegn’s comments also attempt to strengthen his image,
while laying any potential troubles or disorder at Asmara’s door.
Received on Tue Sep 02 2014 - 12:26:20 EDT