Somalia: After Col. Barre Hirale concession, what's next for Jubaland?
Sep 06, 2014 - 05:29:44 AM
Analysis by Abdirashid M. Dahir| The return of former Defence Minister Col.
Barre Adan Shire (Barre Hirale) to political arena seems a paradigm shift
and striking political achievement when it comes to Jubaland peace process
after over two-decades of anarchic clan feuds and terror operations in the
coveted and strategic seaport of Kismayo. Despite trivial grudges, Barre
Hirale's move sent local communities of Jubaland into celebration and at the
same time demonstrated the precarious statesmanship of Col. Hirale who spent
a year in nearby Goobweyn.
In advance of what is next for optimistic Jubaland people, it is quite
crucial to shed light on combat experience of Col. Hirale, recent track
record for Somali bloody stalemate and his future role in contributing to
progress.
Pariah but strongman
In my weekend column i have no preference between President of Jubaland
Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) and former chief of once powerful Jubba Valley
alliance Col. Hirale who has more recently accepted to quit boisterous
forces on the ground. Being prestigious US military academy graduate made
the adamant colonel a popular in national politics.
He arrived back in Somalia in 1990s and took up arms against Aydiid
militiamen in Gedo region of southwestern Somalia. His loyalists flushed
occupying forces from Mogadishu out of Gedo region by subsequently striking
unity deal with Gen. Mohamed Said Hirsi Morgan.
No sooner had they voiced support for Jubaland than the two broke ranks with
each other. Given the formation of Jubaland was hot issue at the time, now
Barre Hirale's standpoint on Kismayo is flexible.
Former transitional Federal Government of Somalia's President late Col.
Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed appointed Col. Barre Hirale as the Defence minister,
placing him atop in the high level counter insurgency in Middle Juba and the
southern port city of Kismayo in 2006. Pariah scenario emerged after Col.
Hirale and his militia vacated Kismayo in June 2013 following days of deadly
clashes with Rasa Kamboni brigades.
Despite the fact that the longtime warrior laid claim to Jubaland
presidency, he later proved vulnerable and stationed his private militiamen
in Goobweyn where he left for Kismayo last week as a result of robust talks.
As of now, Bare has not gained popularity among Jubaland people, with his
monopolistic approach and 'divide and rule' policy plunging the fledgling
state deeper into political uncertainty. He is still pariah but can only
reshape his geopolitical influence if he lobbies for peaceful co-existence
and put an end to long-running bitter split.
Madobe versus Hirale
Col. Barre Hirale's rival to whom he conceded defeat-Ahmed Mohamed Islam
(Ahmed Madobe)- has long sought social and political solution to standing
differences, however the pariah colonel posed challenge to every effort
being undertaken by Madobe and his henchmen.
Though Jubaland leader is committed to uplifting the lives of millions who
suffered from sporadic battles over the control of fertile tracts of land
along Juba River and the second largest seaport, Kismayo, he needs to
politically surrender too much at this early stage to realize historic
development in various fronts.
Landslide victory of Madobe on May 15, 2013 is being billed as a step
towards creation of effective federal member state which shoulders political
and economic responsibility of local communities in Jubaland.
Definitely today Col. Barre Hirale is keen to join Somalia political
landscape again as he preferred to shake hands with Ahmed Madobe following
persistent and overt mediation efforts but difficult question if not
conundrum looms over the fate of the former army commander.
What is next for Jubaland?
As he said at an event held in Mogadishu where he maintains close allies and
considerable support, Col. Barre Hirale officially renounced violence and
has not left any militiamen behind either, henceforth what's next for
Jubaland? Among the pressing issues at hand are fight against Al Shabaab
group, in depth reconciliation and implementation of Juba agreement.
The former Juba Valley Alliance Chief can assist Jubaland administration in
liberating Baardheere, Jilib and Bu'alle from Islamist militants in line
with Juba agreement which was signed in Addis Ababa in August 2013 in the
presence of Ethiopia as guarantor. Ahead of the anticipated military
offensive against Al Shabaab fighters, Hirale militiamen should be either
integrated into Somali National Army (SNA) or Jubaland forces in a bid to
squeeze extremists out of the remaining strongholds.
On the consolidation of Jubaland peace process, rival politicians in the
region are expected to agree on mutual consensus about a year-long bloody
conflict by taking advantage of forth coming peace-building conference in
Kismayo by mid-September. The most stunning peaceful reaction came from Gedo
residents that Col. Hirale belongs to shortly after the concession.
The implementation of bilateral agreement between Somalia's Federal
Government and President Madobe is of utmost priority for all parties,
particularly the handover of Kismayo airport and seaport, two key cash
generating sources of revenue that led to deadly disputes in the past.
With almost one year left to the date on which Madobe's tenure of office
would expire, I do believe that Col. Bare Hiraale has slender chance to
unseat neither candidate in 2015 Jubaland presidential elections.
Whatsoever, supremacy of will and aspirations of Jubaland people is stronger
than future murky agendas of opportunists with the vision of dooming the
public interests to failure.
Abdirashid M. Dahir, in Puntland capital of Garowe has contributed to this
weekend column - follow him on twitter <
https://twitter.com/puntsom>
_at_puntsom
Received on Sat Sep 06 2014 - 10:26:33 EDT