Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2014 23:22:11 +0200
Experts Warn of Dire Consequences as Lake Victoria’s Water Levels Drop
Further
By <http://www.ipsnews.net/author/joshua-kyalimpa/> Joshua Kyalimpa
KAMPALA, Sep 23 2014 (IPS) - Over the years, Cassius Ntege, a fisherman from
Kasenyi landing site on the Ugandan side of Lake Victoria, has observed the
waters of the lake receding. And as one of the many who depend on the lake
for their livelihoods, he has had to endure the disastrous consequences of
the depleting lake.
Ntege told IPS that he first started going to the lake as teenager to fetch
water for domestic use, then as a fisherman, and now as vice chairperson of
the beach management unit — a body set up by the government to curb illegal
fishing and stop depletion of fish stocks from the lake.
But the declining water levels of Lake Victoria have become his daily
concern.
“Look, where that wooden kiosk is placed was previously centre of the lake
and now traders have put shops and food kiosks there,” said Ntege as he
pointed to the wooden and metallic structures placed about 50 metres into
where the lake waters used to be.
There are many traders operating businesses at Kasenyi landing site, which
lies about 30 km from the country’s capital, Kampala. And for them, a drop
in water levels means additional land to set up shop.
Ntege, like many fishermen here, believes the decline in Lake Victoria’s
water levels is because of the effect of wind blowing across the waters from
the land — a phenomenon known locally as “Muguundu”.
But climate experts state in the <http://www.ipcc.ch> Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
<http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/AR5_IPCC_Whats_in_it_for_Africa.
pdf> Fifth Assessment Report that a rise in global temperature is what is
affecting rainfall patterns over Lake Victoria — and the worst is yet to
come.
The report states that increased warming in the western Indian Ocean and
precipitation over the ocean system will bring about climate extremes in
East Africa and increase precipitation during the short rainy season.
Professor Hannes Rautenbach from the <http://web.up.ac.za> University of
Pretoria, and one of the authors of the report, told IPS that temperatures
are projected to rise by +2°C in the next 50 years, and by +2.5°C in about
80 years. This, he said, would alter rainfall patterns over Africa’s biggest
fresh water lake that is shared by the East African countries of Uganda,
Kenya, Tanzania.
Changes in sea surface temperatures in distant tropical oceans will strongly
influence annual rainfall amounts and timing, Rautenbach said. He said
expected changes of plus or minus 10 percent from present annual rainfall
totals may seem minimal, but it’s the shift in water patterns that are of
concern.
“The rain belt over Uganda will shift, in that areas like in the Northwest
and Western regions, which have been receiving minimal rains, will receive
more rains compared to the Lake Victoria region,” Rautenbach explained.
Lake Victoria, which has been receiving high volumes of rainfall, will
experience a 20 percent drop in rainfall from present. This, coupled with
evaporation due to an anticipated temperature rise of about 1°C over Lake
Victoria, will cause a drop in water levels very soon.
East Africa is also projected to experience a change in mean annual
precipitation. This will result in increased rainfall over the short
September to November rainy season and it will mean that the long rainy
season, which takes place between March and May, will reduce. This will
negatively impact Uganda’s farmers particularly those in in areas were
<http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/09/as-uganda-heats-up-pests-and-disease-flouris
h-to-attack-its-top-export-crop/> vital crops such as coffee, tea, cotton
and maize are being grown.
Youba Sokona, chair of the <http://www.ipcc-wg3.de> IPCC Working Group III
that looked at possible mitigation measures, advised that the Uganda
government invest in research for varieties to withstand the changing
climate.
“Crops varieties as we know them today could not withstand the change and
Uganda like other East African governments has no option but to race against
time and fund research into new varieties,” said Sokona.
The Ugandan government, however, say they are taking the warning seriously
and are developing strategic interventions to mitigate the effects.
Dr. Anuciata Hakuza of the <http://www.agriculture.go.ug> Ministry of
Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, said strategic interventions
include promoting and encouraging highly adaptive and productive crop
varieties and cultivars in drought-prone, flood-prone and rain-fed crop
farming systems.
She said other adaptation strategies that the government was working on
include highly adaptive and productive livestock breeds, conservation
agriculture and ecologically compatible cropping systems to increase
resilience to the impact of climate change.
Hakuza said the government was also promoting sustainable management of
rangelands and pastures through integrated rangeland management.
Uganda’s climate change policy also provides support for community-based
adaptation strategies.
Dr. Chebet Maikut, one of Uganda’s negotiators to the
<http://www.cbd.int/cop/> Conference of the Parties, told IPS that there are
plans to develop innovative insurance schemes, such as low-premium
micro-insurance policies, and low-interest credit facilities to insure
farmers against crop failure and livestock loss due to droughts, pests,
floods and other weather-related events.
“Traditional finance institutions have already been reluctant to fund
farming so as the risks grow even further due to climate change there will
be need to develop insurance polices,” he said.
Uganda also plans to promote irrigated agriculture, and improved
post-harvest handling, storage and value-addition in order to mitigate
rising climate-related losses and to improve food security and household
incomes.
Maikut argued that all these plans require huge investments. He said in
addition to the funds that Uganda was making available out of its national
budget, developed countries should also be willing to make contributions.
Edited by:
<http://www.ips.org/institutional/our-global-structure/biographies/nalisha-k
alideen/> Nalisha Adams
There are numerous traders operating businesses at Kasenyi landing site, on
Lake Victoria. Their wooden and metallic structures are placed about 50
metres into where the lake waters used to be. Credit: Joshua Kyalimpa/IPS
There are numerous traders operating businesses at Kasenyi landing site, on
Lake Victoria. Their wooden and metallic structures are placed about 50
metres into where the lake waters used to be. Credit: Joshua Kyalimpa/IPS
(image/jpeg attachment: image001.jpg)