Yemen: On brink of civil war or dissolution?
Many Yemenis fear that the Houthi leader's rhetoric amounts to little more
than a Trojan Horse.
By Adam Baron
<
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/profile/adam-baron.html>
Last updated: 28 Sep 2014 08:13
Watch this Video attachment below:
http://bcove.me/iktav5cy
As
<
https://vpn.aljazeera.net.qa/news/middleeast/2014/09/,DanaInfo=www.aljazeer
a.com+houthis-tighten-grip-yemen-capital-201492217323529650.html> Houthi
rebels gradually descended on the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, over the weekend,
many observers seemed caught by surprise. It wasn't just that the group's
military victory felt sudden - for many, they were virtual unknowns.
"The Houthis got their name from their obscure origins," joked satirist Karl
Sharro on Twitter. "When people saw them, they used to ask 'Who this? Who
this?'"
Considering the Houthis' low international profile, the quip was not
particularly far off. It's an odd irony of the coverage of Yemen. The six
brutal wars waged against the Houthis during the rule of Yemen's former
President Ali Abdullah Saleh got little attention outside of the country.
The series of violent clashes north of Sanaa pitting the Houthis against
largely Sunni tribal adversaries have left thousands dead. But even as the
Houthis' series of military victories since 2011 continued to bring them
closer and closer to the capital, international attention was remarkably
fleeting.
It's worth remembering, of course, that the Houthis were sidelined in the
2011 agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that pushed
Saleh from power in favour of consensus candidate and then-Vice President
Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. His leadership ushered in a period of governance
that was often dysfunctional by a coalition government split between members
of former President Saleh's party, the General People's Congress (GPC), and
the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), a grouping of establishment opposition
factions including the Islamist Islah party - which incorporates the bulk of
the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood - and leftist factions like Yemen's Socialist
and Nasserist parties.
Greatest asset
The Houthis' position outside the seat of power has ultimately proved their
greatest asset, allowing them to present themselves as a viable alternative
to the political mainstream.
Inside Story - Yemen: New balance of power?
Born in the Zaidi heartland of Saada, a mountainous province on the Saudi
border, the Houthis' charismatic founder, Hussein al-Houthi, who was killed
by government forces in 2004, gave voice to feelings of economic and
political marginalisation under the Saleh-era political order in addition to
widespread resentment of US and Saudi influence in Yemen. Under the
leadership of his younger brother, Abdulmalek, the group has continued to
gain support in the face of the government's attempts to suppress them,
whether militarily or by imprisoning pro-Houthi activists.
In some sense, the movement has had two faces: Since 2011, the Houthis'
political wing has launched peaceful protests and participated in Yemen's
Conference of National Dialogue, even as its armed wing continued to clash
with its rivals in a series of hotpots north of Sanaa.
And while the Houthis' military prowess obviously played a key role in their
stunning victory in the capital, the importance of their political moves
should not be dismissed: by aligning themselves with popular demands -
whether the overthrow of the widely unpopular unity government, frustration
over rampant corruption, or anger over the removal of fuel subsidies - the
Houthis were able to transcend their roots in the revival of Zaidism, a
brand of Shia Islam found almost exclusively in northern Yemen, gaining the
ability to paint themselves as a national, non-sectarian movement.
These factors - in addition to the lingering divisions and distrust within
Yemen's armed forces - effectively paved the way for Houthi victory in Sanaa
over the weekend.
That's something that's often lost in much of the coverage of the conflict,
which paints it as a simple battle between Shia Houthis and Sunni
conservatives, a single front in a larger battleground between Iran and
Saudi Arabia.
Politics or religion?
To state the obvious, it's far more complicated - even if many in Yemen and
the region cling to such narratives themselves.
In the bulk of cases, it's politics - rather than religion - that has driven
many tribal figures unhappy with the status quo - particularly powerful
Islah-aligned sheik's hold on many tribal areas - to throw in their lot with
the Houthis. Many secular political activists have been drawn to their
anti-corruption rhetoric. As Houthi fighters entered Sanaa, many in the
military offered little resistance, viewing the Houthis as less
objectionable than the group's primary adversary, Major General Ali Mohsen
al-Ahmar, a powerful, and controversial, Islah-aligned military leader who
has since fled into exile.
Perhaps most notably, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have signalled their
acquiescence to the new order in Sanaa, welcoming the signing of the peace
accord by the Houthis and representatives from other political parties in
Yemen. Western governments have followed suit and the UN welcomed the accord
in a matter of days after appearing to threaten Houthi leaders with punitive
sanctions.
On paper, the
<
https://vpn.aljazeera.net.qa/news/middleeast/2014/09/,DanaInfo=www.aljazeer
a.com+will-yemenis-honour-new-deal-20149211255413961.html> peace accord is
a good deal - a rewrite of the GCC-brokered accord providing for greater
inclusion and, hopefully, paving the way towards more functional governance
in Yemen.
The devil, as usual, is in its implementation. The Houthis say they are
committed to peace; the group's leader, Abdulmalek al-Houthi, delivered a
magnanimous, nationalistic speech on September 24, calling for inclusion and
for Yemenis to join together to build the country.
But many in the country remain apprehensive and fear that Houthi's rhetoric
amounts to little more than a Trojan Horse: the Houthis declined to sign an
annex to the agreement stipulating the withdrawal of their forces, while
Houthi fighters have taken aim at the homes of a number of their adversaries
in Sanaa.
Most of the rest of the country are on edge as well. It remains to be seen
if southern separatists will take advantage of the tumult in the north to
finally make a break with Sanaa.
Most Houthis and their sympathisers, still thrilled with victory, speak with
optimism about the future; even many Yemenis not aligned with the group seem
hopeful that the Houthis could at least bring a comparative calm.
Nonetheless, the country remains on a knife's edge, and even President Hadi
has warned that the country is at risk of civil war or dissolution.
Ultimately, it is too soon to tell.
The dislodging of the Houthi militants from Sanaa seems as unlikely today as
the Houthi conquest of Sanaa would have seemed a month ago.
Adam Baron is a writer and political analyst based in London. He was based
in Sanaa, Yemen from 2011 to 2014.
Received on Sun Sep 28 2014 - 13:24:31 EDT