September 30, 2014: Though Sudan recently declared that it will open
negotiations with the Sudan Liberation Front (SRF, the rebel umbrella
political organization), the government intends to continue exploiting
political, ethnic, tribal and personal divisions among the rebels. The SRF’s
three Darfur rebel groups, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan
Liberation Army-Abdel Wahid (SLA-AW) and Sudan Liberation Army Mini Minawe
(SLA-MM) have managed to cooperate in militarily and politically despite
ethnic difference and personal suspicions. SLA-AW commander, Abdel Wahid Nur
and SLA-MM commander Mini Minawe have both tried to make their SLA faction
the “main line.” The JEM is the largest Darfur rebel group and both SLA
factions have thought JEM commanders have neglected their political
concerns. The SRF includes other rebel groups in Sudan, with the Sudan
Peoples Liberation Movement –North (SPLM-N) being the most prominent. When
the SPLM-N began fighting in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, the group
reached out to the Darfur rebels. Over time, the SPLM-N has served as a
unifying force. However, many of the tribes in the SPLM-N have more in
common with South Sudanese ethnic groups than they do with the Muslim (and
occasionally semi-nomadic) Darfuris. Sudan’s intelligence officers and
negotiators know that. They know the personalities, they know their
individual objectives, and they know the local issues.
September 29, 2014: China ordered the state owned Chinese firm NORINCO to
halt sales of weapons to South Sudan. The first shipment, worth $39 million,
arrived in June. China is the largest customer for South Sudan oil but
production has been cut by two thirds because of the continuing civil war.
September 27, 2014: The South Sudan government has agreed to the rebel
demand for a federal form of government. But now the details of that must be
worked out.
September 26, 2014: South Sudan has deployed a battalion of soldiers along
the border of Upper Nile state and Sudan. The government claimed that the
deployment was a response to the September 20 attack on the town of Renk
when Nuer rebels crossed into South Sudan and launched a major attack on the
town. South Sudan’s army, Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) units in Renk
drove off the attackers and the defeated force fled north into Sudan. The
SPLA claimed that Sudan had provided support for the rebel forces but that
Sudanese security forces had subsequently disarmed the defeated rebels after
they re-entered Sudan territory. A government spokesman described the Renk
attack as part of a rebel plan to seize an Upper Nile state oil field.
September 25, 2014: China said that it will send another 700 soldiers to
South Sudan to serve in the UN’s UNMISS (UN Mission in South Sudan)
peacekeeping mission. The troops will conduct both humanitarian and security
operations. The new unit will be an infantry battalion which will arrive
with its light infantry weapons and some light armored vehicles. This marks
the first time China has contributed a non-engineer combat unit to a
peacekeeping mission. China has deployed army engineers (combat engineers)
to support peacekeeping operations, but they have been assigned non-combat
missions. China currently has 350 soldiers serving with UNMISS.
In another shift in stated policy, Sudan announced that it will hold
ceasefire negotiations with the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF). The
negotiations will begin October 12. The African Union (AU) will sponsor the
negotiations. On several previous occasions Sudan has hinted that it would
discuss a separate, permanent ceasefire in South Kordofan and Blue Nile
states with a key member of the SRF, the SPLM-N. Sudan has been reluctant to
negotiate with the SRF coalition, preferring to treat the various rebel
groups in the SRF as discrete problems rather than elements of a national
problem. (Austin Bay)
September 24, 2014: East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development
(IGAD) sponsored ceasefire implementation and transitional government
discussions between the South Sudan government and the rebels (led by former
vice-president Riek Machar) have stalled. IGAD is trying to hammer out a new
interim power sharing agreement. The rebels rejected an earlier IGAD
proposal that would have made Kiir head of the government during the two and
a half-year long transitional period.
South Sudan acknowledged that many residents of the town of Bor (Jonglei
state) who fled fighting there in December and January have not been able to
return. Bor suffered a great deal of destruction during the fighting. The
army said that security in the area remains “fragile.”
September 23, 2014: The SRF announced that it will hold a conference open to
all opposition forces in Sudan. The purpose of the “all-parties conference”
is to frame a unified opposition political program. The SRF is advocating a
“national constitutional process” within Sudan and a “comprehensive peace
process” to end the civil war in Darfur, Blue Nile state and South Kordofan
state.
September 22, 2014: Sudan police and National Intelligence and Security
Services (NISS) agents arrested several dozen opposition political activists
(most of them in the Khartoum area). The government warned the activists and
their supporters that they will not be allowed to hold vigils and ceremonies
commemorating the September 2013 protests. Reaction to an increase in fuel
prices (actually, an end of fuel subsidies by the government) triggered the
demonstrations. Government security personnel fired on the demonstrators.
The government claimed that 85 protestors were killed. Opposition and human
rights organizations said over 200 people were killed.
September 20, 2014: A major battle broke out between South Sudan rebels and
the government near the town of Renk (Upper Nile state). Some believed this
was an intentional ceasefire violation designed to frustrate or end
negotiations. Negotiators said the battle is a definite violation of the
January 23 South Sudan cessation of hostilities agreement.
September 19, 2014: The American government has placed additional sanctions
on South Sudan government and rebel officials. The latest political and
financial sanctions target a government military commander and a senior
rebel commander. Major General Santino Deng Wol (SPLA) and Major General
James Koang Chuol (rebel officer in the SPLM-in-Opposition) are accused of
conducting operations prolonging South Sudan’s civil war. According to the
U.S., Wol has “expanded the conflict and obstructed peace” by ordering his
soldiers to attack rebels in the towns of Tor Abyad, Wang Kai and Mayom.
Koang is accused of ordering his soldiers to attack civilians in Unity
state, to attack schools and hospitals and to use “sexual violence” against
civilians.
September 14, 2014: The government of Libya once again accused Sudan of
providing extremist Islamist militias and terror groups in Libya with
weapons. Libya’s prime minister rejected Sudan’s claim that it is not
supplying these groups. Libya claimed that the Sudanese transport plane
which entered Libyan air space on September 7 and landed at Tripoli, was
loaded with weapons at an airfield in Sudan.
September 12, 2014: Sudan denied that it will hold discussions to end all
hostilities within the country. Sudan is willing to negotiate separate
ceasefire agreements in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and the Darfur region. The
government argued that individual ceasefire agreements are a confidence
building measure. The SRF has proposed negotiations to end all fighting in
Sudan.
September 11, 2014: South Sudan said that Sudan’s decision to include the
disputed Abyei region in its 2015 national elections violates the joint
administration agreement currently controlling the area. Sudan is still
angry that the pro-south Dinka Ngok tribe conducted a “community referendum”
in May 2013 to determine Dinka preferences for Abyei. Dinka voters
overwhelmingly (99 percent) favored becoming part of South Sudan. What Sudan
appears to be proposing, however, is to treat pro-north Misseriya tribal
people in Abyei as northern voters.
September 9, 2014: Aid groups began another round of emergency airdrops
(parachute delivery) of food. The rainy season has made many roads
impassable and sporadic fighting between government and rebel forces
continues. Airdrops have occurred in South Sudan’s Jonglei and Upper Nile
states. However, aid groups are reporting that the food crisis may be
receding. New food supplies are arriving in South Sudan. The rains may
impede ground transport, but they also break the drought conditions. Farmers
will soon be able to raise crops.
September 8, 2014: Libya accused Sudan of providing Islamist terror groups
in Libya with weapons. The Libyan government claimed that Sudan had supplied
a rebel force in eastern Libya (near Tobruk) with weapons. On September 7 a
Sudanese transport plane entered Libyan airspace and landed at an airport
near Tripoli that is under the control of an extremist Islamist militia.
Libya then expelled a Sudanese diplomat (military attaché).