South Sudanese SPLA soldiers inspect a burned out car in Pageri in Eastern Equatoria state on Aug.20. The spokesman of SPLA, Col. Philip Aguer visited the area after the government claimed to be back in control of the area following an attack by rebel forces. The government says they will return to talks in Ethiopia in early September to “finalise” a peace deal. AFP PHOTOUPDF readies for fresh fighting as peace talks falter
Threats by rebels in South Sudan to strike and close down the only road linking the war-torn country to Uganda have put a group of Uganda People’s Defence Forces fighters based in the country on high alert.
UPDF spokesman, Paddy Ankunda confirmed to The Independent that the UPDF was monitoring the situation and would contain it.
“We have always encouraged peace but if you have people whose means of solving issues is violence, what do you do?” Ankunda said, “We have troops there and we are there to make sure there is peace and ensure trade goes on. We shall not allow them to close the road. We shall not allow them to fight.”
A lot is at stake. Nimule Highway, which the rebels threatened to close down, is the only link to the main base of the UPDF contingent in South Sudan at the Fourth Division Headquarters in Gulu. Brig.Muhanga Kayanja commands the UPDF Division 4 and the force in South Sudan.
It is also the only route for trade between the two countries. South Sudan is Uganda’s major regional market. Exports to the country brought an estimated US$1.3 billion in 2012 before the war broke out in December 2013. Although trade volumes have since dropped by upwards of 70 percent, shutting down Nimule would mean no trade at all.
President Museveni has cited protection of trade as one of the reasons Uganda deployed in South Sudan. Over 2500 soldiers have been in the country since then with expenses taken care of by the Ugandan government.
Even before the threats emerged, in April this year, the UPDF demanded Shs16.2 billion for South Sudan operations as part of its Shs 1.4 trillion budget.
In its report, South Sudan: The Cost of War, London-based consultancy group Frontier Economics noted last year that restoring peace in South Sudan would save Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Sudan some US$53 billion over five years by reducing expenditures to deal with the increasing number of refugees and other security concerns.
Aware of this cost, the respective countries under their umbrella, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have been painstakingly leading a process to restore peace.
The threat by rebels to renew fighting is the latest sign that their efforts might have all gone to waste. This is mainly because South Sudan President Salvar Kiir on Aug. 17 refused to sign a deal with the rebels led by Riek Machar.
The deal involves power-sharing and the deployment of a neutral force to the capital, Juba.
Machar signed. But instead of signing, Kiir’s government allegedly attacked the rebels’ base in Pageri, Imatong State, which is close to the Ugandan border.
Kiir had even declined to travel to Addis Ababa, the venue of the talks. Sources said it took a lot of pressure from peers for him to arrive in Ethiopia on Aug.16.
While there, however, Kiir’s group cited divisions in the rebels’ camp as grounds that the agreement promised little in terms of bringing peace.
Kiir’s chief negotiator, on the other hand has said the deal, which representatives of both sides had been negotiating in the Ethiopian capital since Aug.6, cannot not be implemented because the rebels are divided. They, however, asked for extra 15 days.
But observers say that Kiir, who has managed to stay in power solely because of the UPDF presence in South Sudan, feels stronger and is keen to cling onto power, interests that are threatened by the rebels.
Kiir’s stance has irked the rebels, who say he wants nothing but war.
His regional peers and the international community are not impressed too.
The chief mediator, Seyoum Mesfin, told BBC that the refusal to sign by Kiir was mind-boggling adding that “enough is enough if he fails to sign in 15 days”.
International players U.S. and UK have said they are drafting sanctions should either party fail to reach the peace deal.
Despite the peace process, the rebels accuse the government of launching multiple offensives Unity State, Central Equatoria and Eastern Equatoria.
“We are dismayed by the renewed aggression by Salva Kiir’s government,” Machar’s press secretary, James Gatdet Dak, said in a press statement, “Our forces came under unprovoked attack on Sunday morning in different states of the country. Government forces came out from Unity state’s capital, Bentiu, and attacked our positions around Nhialdiu on Sunday morning. They were however repulsed and retreated back to Bentiu.”
The fresh fighting comes barely a month after The Independent exclusively reported that a secret operation by security contractors based in Uganda had been underway training fighters, comprising Ugandans and South Sudanese, to fight in the South Sudan war.
The training was reportedly part of a deal worth millions of dollars between representatives of the Juba establishment and some of the security contractors based in Kampala.
The training had reportedly been taking place at a private airfield a few kilometres from Entebbe called Kajjansi Airfield. From here, and after the training, the fighters would be airlifted to South Sudan, sources familiar with it revealed.
Previously, the operation was kept under wraps but was exposed following failure by the contractors to meet their contractual obligations. Apparently, the representatives of the South Sudan establishment became furious after the contractors failed to deliver the agreed upon number of the mercenaries at the agreed time.
As part of the deal, military intelligence in Uganda established that Juba had already paid the contractors a down payment of close to US$900,000 (approx. Shs3 billion).
While our sources said the UPDF top brass was hunting for the private security contractor who had disappeared, Ankunda, the UPDF Spokesperson told The Independent he had no information about the arrangement.
Critics noted that the operation was the latest signal of how far the warring parties in South Sudan are willing to go in their struggle for power in a conflict that has claimed over 10,000 lives, made over half a million flee the country and over 1.5 million get displaced internally.
Critics also say that such a plan showed that efforts at reconciliation in which regional and international actors are heavily invested might not amount to anything.
The last round of talks collapsed this March in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, and fighting resumed.
As early as May, the rebels announced they had taken control of the country’s main oil fields after defeating government forces in Upper Nile. With some oil fields under their control, the rebels are in position to wait out the Juba establishment, which now finds itself short on revenue given that oil production has been slashed.
Before the war, oil revenue accounted for 98 percent of the country’s budget. The war has meant that oil production has been cut by up to 60 percent.
The Juba establishment expected the UPDF to protect the oil fields. However, while still close to the country’s leadership, President Museveni, who was in the capital as South Sudan celebrated its independence anniversary on July 9, seems to have bought into the view that Uganda should only stop at taking care of its interests.
President Museveni has explained that one of these interests is that South Sudan is Uganda’s biggest regional market. He has also said that Uganda had to intervene to prevent a blood bath and a refugee crisis in the northern part of Uganda. The other issue is that a crisis in South Sudan can offer Joseph Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) an opportunity to re-emerge as a serious security threat.
From Uganda’s position therefore, the presence of UPDF in the country seems to serve these interests.
But Kiir does not seem very amused with that talk. He has saidSouth Sudan war-UPDF readies for fresh fighting as peace talks falterp://www.independent.co.ug/news/regional-news/10566-south-sudan-war#sthash.aD8lQ36u.UPDF read