February 4, 2015 (ADDIS ABABA) – The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that different dimensions and interests that characterise the ongoing war in South Sudan may lead to a merged regional war in the young country.

Displaced people who fled from recent fighting in Jonglei state capital Bor queue outside an MSF-run clinic in Lakes state’s Awerial on 2 January 2014 (Photo: AP/Ben Curtis)

In a report released on 29 January, it pointed to the ongoing different interests pursued by East African regional leaders, most conspicuously both Uganda and Sudan, through the conflict.

Uganda from the onset declared its support to president Salva Kiir’s government in mid-December 2013 immediately after the year-long violence started in the South Sudanese capital, Juba.

The southern neighbour, which is the largest exporter to South Sudan in food and non-food commodities, wires home hundreds of millions of US dollars from South Sudan every year. It has since stationed thousands of troops to fight alongside Juba government against the rebel group led by former vice-president Riek Machar.

Sudanese rebel groups have also taken part in the cross-border war, also allied to Juba and supported by Kampala.

Juba and Khartoum have been trading counter-accusations of either side supporting the other fighting group. Both countries deny the accusations.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda and president Omer Hassen al-Bashir of Sudan reportedly renewed the accusations and threats during the high profile summit of IGAD heads of state and government in Addis Ababa.

An agreement on cessation of hostilities brokered by the East African regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) signed by the two warring parties since 23 January 2014 to withdraw the foreign forces has not been implemented.

Kampala and Juba have expressed their disapproval to the withdrawal of the Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF) from South Sudan, citing a strategic military cooperation agreement.

IGAD member states have also hinted measures that would include a military intervention by others in the region if the two warring parties fail to sign a peace agreement and continue with the war.

ICG however said prevailing competing regional interests fail the mediation to bear the fruit, posing threats of merging conflicts.

“The regional organisations that seek to mediate have been unsuccessful, in part because members have competing interests, while outside powers do not invest sufficiently in conflict resolution,” ICG said.

“Uganda sent troops to strengthen president Kiir’s forces, but in the process angered Sudan, its regional rival. Some observers anticipated the rebels in both countries would cooperate against the two governments, given their similar grievances. Instead, those fighting against Khartoum joined with Kiir’s forces against Machar’s in order to preserve their sanctuaries in South Sudan and their claim on continued material assistance,” the group underlined.

“Within days of the outbreak of fighting in South Sudan, the wars began to merge geographically in its Unity state. As rebels from Sudan joined the fight on Juba’s side, it rapidly became a main theatre, characterised by protracted conflict over major towns and oil installations, mass atrocities and the confluence of multiple armed groups operating with their own agendas,” it said.

The crisis group warned the conflict may soon be out of control in this dry season and suck in regional groups unless measures were taken to contain its cross-border spread.

ACTION NEEDED

The ICG report recommended an arms embargo to be imposed on South Sudan by the United Nations as Addis Ababa talks continue. It also suggested measures aimed at stopping the use of oil revenues to fund the war and to further study and contain other sources of funding.

The report also calls on China and US to use their influence and deepen their engagement in the region by increasing pressure and inducement on Kampala, Juba and Khartoum with a view to persuading them to stop their interference and support to fighting groups.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), it says, should consider mandating the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA) to monitor the movement of armed groups and weapons along the Sudan-South Sudan border.

Further, it called on IGAD to ensure timely and public monitoring by the Verification and Monitoring Mechanisms of the cessation of hostilities violations “by all parties, including by Uganda.”

The experts criticised IGAD for focusing the talks on leadership power-sharing between Kiir and Machar, saying the regional body had ignored the need to address the complex expanding conflict between the two rivals.

The warring parties on Monday signed another roadmap agreement that defined structure and mandate of a would-be formed government of national unity by 9 July.

However, most contentious issues including leadership structure, power-sharing ratios, governance system, security arrangements and justice, accountability and reconciliation remained to be negotiated when the talks resume on 20 February.

The 13-month old crisis erupted on 15 December 2013 when internal political debates on reforms within the leadership of the ruling party, the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM), turned violent.

Tens of thousands have died, 2 million uprooted from their homes and 4 million others threatened by hunger and diseases.