Omar al-Bashir has a spring in his step—could a thawing of US-Sudan ties be on the cards?

M&G Africa Writer

11 Feb 2015 20:20

Moves to normalise ties with Uganda, a key American ally, seen as a harbinger of better relations with Washington

 

FOR over 20 years, ties between Sudan and Uganda have been marked by tension and hostility, with the ebbs and flows in their diplomatic contacts doing little for a sustained bilateral relationship.

Official relations have been severed and restored, high-level talks held in various capitals, from London to Nairobi, and all sorts of issues from abducted girls to difficult rebel groups argued out on the mediation table.

But ties have remained stubbornly strained, ensnared in a vortex of security and economic interests. It is a relationship few are able to make sense of, which is why renewed recent contact between Kampala and Khartoum have left analysts baffled, given none of the two countries are in what conflict analysts would call a hurting stalemate—a situation where they must talk. 

An emerging strand that a reinvigorated Sudan is looking to push out of its international isolation imposed by the US and has sought to bring known American allies such as Uganda closer onside, while also looking to buff up its regional muscle. 

A spate of recent visits by highly-placed Sudanese officials to Washington have only helped to fuel the speculation.    

Pro-government Sudanese media this week reported that Uganda president Yoweri Museveni told Hassabo Mohamed Abdul-Rahman, the Arab country’s second vice president, that Kampala would expel prominent leaders of Sudanese rebel groups whose presence in the city has informed much of the recent rancour between the two states.

Khartoum has for years accused Uganda of supporting rebel groups opposed to its regime, a claim that dates back to Kampala’s support for the John Garang-led Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA).  

Kampala has levelled the same allegations against Sudan, which it says supported Joseph Kony’s LRA “terrorist” rebels, in part as a useful counter to the SPLA.

Relations somewhat improved with the 2005 signing of a peace deal between Khartoum and the SPLA that paved the way for the secession of South Sudan, a process midwifed by the US which had declared Sudan a terrorist state following its alleged role in an assassination attempt of then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, and for hosting Osama bin Laden.

While both Uganda and Sudan are thought to be supporting different factions of the latets deadly South Sudanese civil war that broke out in December 2013, it was the showing up in Kampala of dissident groups opposed to the Khartoum regime that reignited the current phase of frosty relations.

The dissidents, under the Sudan Revolutionary Front, had in early 2013  signed a charter in Kampala that pledged to overthrow president Omar al-Bashir. The Front is a coalition of Sudanese rebel groups in Darfur, South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, regions that have in recent years been bases to armed resistance to Sudan’s authority.

Influential Sudanese media outlet Ashrouq.net reported that Museveni had held a prolonged meeting in Kampala on Monday with the high-level Sudanese delegation composed of key ministers and defence chiefs. 

Sudan’s State Minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Obeid-Allah Mohamed Obeid-Allah, told reporters that the two sides had fleshed out the security issue at length and also discussed future cooperation, with a joint team initiated to implement decisions.

Kampala has not publicly discussed the meeting’s outcome.

But underscoring how deep the animosity runs, analysts said a significant warming of ties will take time, even as a shift in the international terrain made it necessary. 

 Al-Najeeb Adam Gamar Eddin, editor-in-chief of Sudan’s Al-Akhbar daily, said the new diplomatic developments between Sudan and Uganda were “surprising” and suggestive of changing priorities.

“No doubt it is a surprising development that [we did not expect] to happen soon,” he said, according to Xinhua, the state agency funded by China, which has economic interests in the region.

“If the presence of the Sudanese armed groups on the Ugandan territories was the essential point of difference between Khartoum and Kampala, it is also apparent that the weakness of those groups and their failure to topple the government in Khartoum was the reason which pushed Uganda to change its policies,” he said.

Less distance

The recent narrowing of the distance between the rivals in the South Sudan conflict may have pushed Museveni to moderate his stance. The Ugandan leader has been supporting the South Sudanese government led by Salva Kiir, and at one point deployed troops to prop up the the South Sudan leader.

Prospects of a comprehensive peace deal remain alive, despite a raft of ceasefires that have been violated almost before the ink had dried on them.

Such a deal could feasibly bring back into government the rebel faction led by former vice president Salva Kiir, potentially complicating Kampala’s regional hand.

Other analysts have attributed the renewed contact between the two governments to developments in the Middle East, Africa and the Great Lakes regions which are host to tensions between regional and international powers.

Al-Fatih Elsayed, a Sudanese political analyst, told Xinhua that the region was witnessing “great transformations and sharp polarisations that necessitate the countries to try to deal with them in a manner that preserves their interests and achieves their stability.”

He said how Khartoum took advantage of them would help further strengthen its standing.

“We observe intensive moves towards normalisation of the Sudanese-American relations and before that there was a clear improvement in Sudan’s ties with the Gulf states. Now there is the development in the Sudanese-Ugandan relations. These are interconnected matters,” Elsayed said.

Uganda, despite a few bumps along the road, has remained a staunch ally of the US.

Senior Sudan presidential aide Ibrahim Ghandour has this week been meeting US State Department officials, with the normalisation of relations and the lifting of debilitating sanctions on Sudan reported to be on the agenda. Khartoum officials in interviews back home have been bullish about the prospect of a White House meeting.

Sudan Foreign minister Ali Karti last week also pitched camp in Washington, where he held meetings with members of Congress, leading to the invite to Ghandour in what Khartoum sees as a quantum leap in US-Sudan relations.

Bashir would also appear to have the wind on his back. In December, the International Criminal Court ended its probe into allegations of war crimes in the troubled Darfur region, for which the court had charged Bashir in 2009. 

An emboldened Bashir has recently taken to demanding the UN-African Union force leave Darfur, and to make his point, expelled top UN officials as he seeks to claim victory.

Sudan is also actively seeking to ramp up relations with neighbouring African countries, including Libya where it hopes to be a key peace broker. 

But despite the new phase in Sudan’s diplomacy, only time will tell whether Khartoum can emerge into the American sunlight, but there remains no doubt it would constitute a major coup for it internationally.