http://intellectualconservative.com/geopolitical-showdown-in-the-horn/
Geopolitical Showdown in the Horn
By Abukar Arman,
on June 7th, 2015
Recently, two major developments in Somalia and Djibouti have
attracted international media attention. John Kerry became the first
U.S. Secretary of State to visit Mogadishu, whilst China has
negotiated the construction of a military base in the strategic port
of Djibouti.
These two ‘symbolic’ and substantive developments represent both an
opportunity and a challenge for the U.S. geopolitical interests in the
Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.
The contemporary U.S. foreign policy which is hardwired on
counter-terrorism posturing has been on a losing streak- Iraq,
Afghanistan, Yemen, to name a few. In the Horn of Africa, it is facing
some serious challenges: China’s checkbook diplomacy, Ethiopia’s
hegemonic adventures, and the indirect effect of the Arab Spring.
Touchdown in Mogadishu
Kerry’s trip to Mogadishu came at an election year when the Democratic
frontrunner is being accused of foreign policy recklessness, and at a
time when the State Department is too cautious to even say when the
American embassy might open there. As such, it is more than a symbolic
gesture; it was a strategic one- the poor timing notwithstanding.
Contrary to some Somali and US media headlines that were quick to
claim that Kerry’s historic trip to Somalia was an expression of U.S.
confidence and a “show of support” to the IGAD/Ethiopia-led
balkanization process known as the Federalization Process, the impetus
driving the trip was geopolitical in nature. At the airport compound,
days after concluding the latest of the balkanization conferences in
Garowe, Puntland, Kerry met with four Somali presidents and one prime
minster, though not his Somali counterpart.
So, what was on the agenda? And, were all those actors on the same
page? Ironically, it really did not matter. The trip was about a place
holder- an affirmation that the U.S. is still interested in Somalia
and is anxiously waiting for competent partners who know what they
want and what they have as leverage.
In a 5 minute pre-recorded video that was intended to bypass the
seemingly ragtag ‘leaders’ that he was scheduled to meet, Kerry spoke
to the people. He told the Somali people that he “focused on…steps
that must be taken on Vision 2016 (election) to advance Somalia’s
development as a unified, federal state.” “We all have a stake in what
happens here in Somalia…” he added.
While Kerry is right on the latter, supporting a “unified” Somalia
governed through a clan-based federal system of ever-descending
allegiance is a bloody pipedream. The nation formerly known as
‘Somalia’ is more divided today than ever before as a result of such
dichotomous combination.
As erratic as its foreign policy toward Somalia may have been, U.S.
seems to have realized that its policy toward Somalia is part of the
problem, and that the current Somali politicians have indicated that
they neither think nor function as leaders of a single nation.
Directly or indirectly, each one of them is committed to keeping
politics at the clan level, or more bluntly, at the gutter level,
where geostrategic negation that could benefit both nations is utterly
impossible.
China’s Checkbook Diplomacy
China now has over $200 billion invested in Africa; a significant
financial interest that may explain why China not only has economic,
but “political, and military deals with a number of African states.”
Djibouti is one of those states and China has invested $9 billion in
it.
On the one hand, the latest venture might underscore a consistent
survival-oriented strategic pattern in which Djibouti—a tiny strategic
country located in perhaps Africa’s toughest neighborhood—partners
with any willing power that could empower her economically and
security-wise. On the other hand, the latest could prove a
counterintuitive enterprise that profoundly impacts the balance of
power in one of the most important strategic waterways and thus ensure
geopolitical advantage to China over the rest.
Against that backdrop, the shocking part is not that Djibouti is
willing to become the first nation to host two competing superpower
‘frenemies’ but that China is confident enough to setup a military
base right next to the U.S., France, and Japan in the tiny Horn of
Africa nation.
The Hegemon of the Horn
Meanwhile, as AMISOM is set to face the security threats emanating
from al-Shabaab’s party-balloon-effect, it certainly risks a mission
creep. Such outcome, needless to say, would automatically boost the
strategic position of Ethiopia- the only country with the military
might, devout cronies, and political will to engross Somalia or feast
on it a few bites at a time.
In the past two decades, Ethiopia has proven it’s the mastery of
projecting itself as a problem-solving nation. Whether one gets its
diplomatic façade that I refer to as Injera Diplomacy or its predatory
side depends on Ethiopia’s immediate hegemonic interest. Injera is a
spongy Ethiopian flatbread served with a variety of meat and vegetable
stews. With it one can easily scoop much of the stew one bite after
another without dirtying one’s hand.
Make no mistake; Ethiopia is a stakeholder in the Djibouti and China
deal. As a landlocked nation with growing economy, Ethiopia is heavily
counting on China’s scheduled project to expand Djibouti’s sea port.
The former has recently purchased three merchant ships that are hosted
in Djibouti. Ethiopia has been making its chess moves as it is
mindful, that, sooner or later, its policy toward Somalia would
collide with U.S.’ strategic interest in that country.
Ethiopia not only offers economic incentive to Djibouti and political
clout within IGAD, it also grants her reassurances in dealing with
future threats that may emanate from the ethnically-Ethiopian
Djiboutian Afar community which is a significant number of the
population.
Geopolitics and geostrategy
In January 19, 2010, “U.S. officials and the Yemeni government agreed
to set up a military base in Socotra to counter pirates and al-Qaeda.”
Socotra has a rare combination of strategic geographical location,
minimal population, and remoteness from media attention and scrutiny.
Now, with a hybrid political/sectarian wildfire raging in the Gulf of
Aden and the specter of Houthi upper hand and subsequent Iranian
direct influence in Yemen is looming, the U.S. is standing on thin ice
in terms of its strategic maritime position and influence.
Unified and sovereign Somalia could be a significant factor in tipping
the strategic balance of power both in the Indian Ocean and the Red
Sea.
The next leadership team would have to be mindful of the importance of
cultivating a strategic partnership with the US; it is the only way to
protect Somalia from neighborhood political predators. But, such a
partnership could only happen with a new U.S. policy toward Somalia
Received on Sun Jun 07 2015 - 13:39:25 EDT