Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2015 17:14:40 +0200
Note: Long read, but has great information on the migration crisis and the routes used. Google translate was used, Italian to English, so there are likely small grammar errors.
June 25, 20115
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The question of migration and management of migrants remains at the center of public and political debate, though often only in a superficial way. To be able to offer a mature discussion and practical solutions is necessary, however, better observe what are the characteristics of these flows, especially in the southern Mediterranean.
In recent weeks it has continued the debate on migration flows from the Southern Mediterranean and the Middle East and how to manage them and, once again, the discourse tends to stop only the most superficial aspects of the problem. As we have explained in the past, it is important to observe the phenomenon of migration as a whole because only then, understanding the complexity, will be able to formulate concrete strategies that help to manage the situation.
In our first analysis we have examined how many migration flows often originate far to the south of the Mediterranean, in the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa that has so many situations of conflict and socio-economic hardship. Combined with the expected population growth, this suggests that migration flows are likely to increase over time. But how can migrants to get to the Mediterranean, which are the main routes?
On the web there are many maps that describe these routes, but we intend to not only describe, but rather to explain the implications of the current situation, even in a future perspective.
The biggest obstacle to overcome for those coming from the south is obviously the Sahara, and for the extreme weather conditions and the difficulty of maintaining roads easy to follow. If we look at a map of the main "highways" African few of them, in fact, through this mass of sand, and often Saharan traits are not even paved.
[African Main Highways]
But it would be wrong to think that these are the only means of communication used by migrants and smugglers. There are in fact numerous journeys between roads (often unpaved) and paths of various types that allow crossing from south to north (or vice versa) the desert. These are, in fact, the main routes in what is called the route to the central Mediterranean.
[Heading towards the central Mediterranean]
The main routes through West Africa (or start) Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to arrive in Algeria and especially in Libya, from where (in particular from the area of Tripoli) leave for Italy and Europe. And 'possible to observe some key points that make up the hub, or at least the main nodes: Gao and Kidal in Mali, Agadez and the small town of Arlit in Niger, Tamanrasset in Algeria, Sebha and the oasis of al-Kufra in Libya, in addition, of course, to the coastal areas around Tripoli.
[The main hub of human trafficking]
The current geopolitical situation means that most of these flows tend to go mainly to the chaotic Libya, where it is easier to the final transit to Europe. This is a matter of geographical proximity of the coast, and the strong reduction of state control, which enables organizations traffickers to operate with greater impunity.
We also quoted al-Kufra, which, in south-eastern Libya, does not seem to be touched by such routes. But we must remember that there is another main direction of migration to Europe, one that departs from and through East Africa.
[East African route]
These routes departing mainly from the Horn of Africa, where the difficult security situation and the excesses of regimes like that of Eritrea Isaias Afewerki are at the origin of strong migration flows. A considerable part of these cross the Red Sea or the Straits of Aden to pour in the Arabian Peninsula, and especially in Yemen, where UNHCR states in its 2015 report that there are about 246,000 refugees, 95% of them Somalis. These refugees, however, often have no way out then. Yemen in particular is a closed bottle, in which you can get but do not go out except by the same route of entry, given that Saudi Arabia has in recent years taken steps to build a barrier to prevent migration to the north. Recently, the worsening of the clashes in Yemen (even more so after the intervention of military aircraft Arab countries led by Saudi own) has led to a partial reversal of the flow (from Yemen to Somalia).
The flows in the Horn of Africa, then move north through Sudan and then Egypt and Libya. Among the main hub here we just al-Kufra. Also important is Khartoum, capital of Sudan. E 'was observed as many Syrians try to escape right through that route. Looking at the map it may seem strange (Syria and Sudan are certainly not close!) But it is not if we think that the Sudan is one of the very few states that still allow the arrival of Syrian air. Who can afford it, then, try to reach Khartoum by air to avoid closures of Lebanon and Turkey (which is already home to many refugees but are tightening the links inbound) and from there it heads north over land.
If we consider the two lines above, let's see how they point to the same country, Libya, where the rest of the current situation, as mentioned, encourages trafficking, including those of human beings. This means that Libya is at present, geopolitically and geographically, the natural funnel of the main migration flows in Africa.
[Schematic of the main lines to Libya]
There are other routes? Of course, but they follow different logics. Historically it has always been significant flow from West Africa to Spain (especially to the Canary Islands but also to Morocco and from there to the Iberian Peninsula).
[Route from West Africa]
However, this route is today considered substantially interrupted due to some agreements (between Spain and Mauritania, Spain and Senegal, signed from 2006 onwards and serve precisely block migration by sea. These are then gradually moved toward the trails East. Much more important are the routes through Turkey. In this case the passage overland to Greece has been blocked from creating a barrier on the border, but this has only increased the transit by sea from the coast of Anatolia Greek islands and also to the Italian coast.
If the Mediterranean is an area of transit and destination for all these people, but as you can see, before that, the phenomenon interests a huge part of the African continent, and how often are transnational organizations and groups that promote such trafficking . In addition to local groups behind the coasts, in fact, important roles Tuareg tribes (in the central-western) and Toubou (in Central and Eastern Europe), the groups linked to extremism as al-Morabitoun of Belmokhtar (by some analysts considered the most criminal terrorist group) or even the jihadist groups in the Sahel (Ansar Dine, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ...) that derive considerable income, and, of course, to the officers and often corrupt local bureaucrats who profit from such traffic. We do not intend now to go into detail of these groups, their business model or the atrocious conditions that migrants are facing in these desperate journeys, but it is clear that the dynamics that regulate the flows are linked to the complexity of a region much larger Libya alone.
In this regard, often it quotes the past agreement between Italy and Libya to stop the departures of migrants from Libya, but remember that Gaddafi, in fact, cheated ... the Libyans stopped departures but had no way to stop migration flows together - in particular not the dynamics upstream. No coincidence that those who arrived in Libya was often stopped between Sebha and al-Kufra and brutality suffered by the authorities themselves who had endured up to that point, or was forced to move elsewhere - with the consequences that this could have in the Sahara.
What we never knew, because Gaddafi has fallen before, it is how such a system could hold, considering the gradual increase in migration over the years (even counting which of them stem from conflicts arising precisely from the fall of Gaddafi). How, that is, it would take the limbic system before being unable to control the numbers arriving, to avoid it, what effect would the diversion of flows to neighboring Algeria and Egypt?
This raises a number of fundamental problems in relation to certain options that are often cited in the political and public European and Italian, in particular the creation, directly in North Africa, in shelters or camps that serve as hubs, with the associated possibility of having to protect the armed forces (for example, under UN mandate). In short, what really means "sorting" migrants in Africa - which is what we are going to analyze now.
However, this route is today considered substantially interrupted due to some agreements (between Spain and Mauritania, Spain and Senegal, signed from 2006 onwards and serve precisely block migration by sea. These are then gradually moved toward the trails East. Much more important are the routes through Turkey. In this case the passage overland to Greece has been blocked from creating a barrier on the border, but this has only increased the transit by sea from the coast of Anatolia Greek islands and also to the Italian coast.
If the Mediterranean is an area of transit and destination for all these people, but as you can see, before that, the phenomenon interests a huge part of the African continent, and how often are transnational organizations and groups that promote such trafficking . In addition to local groups behind the coasts, in fact, important roles Tuareg tribes (in the central-western) and Toubou (in Central and Eastern Europe), the groups linked to extremism as al-Morabitoun of Belmokhtar (by some analysts considered the most criminal terrorist group) or even the jihadist groups in the Sahel (Ansar Dine, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ...) that derive considerable income, and, of course, to the officers and often corrupt local bureaucrats who profit from such traffic. We do not intend now to go into detail of these groups, their business model or the atrocious conditions that migrants are facing in these desperate journeys, but it is clear that the dynamics that regulate the flows are linked to the complexity of a region much larger Libya alone.
In this regard, often it quotes the past agreement between Italy and Libya to stop the departures of migrants from Libya, but remember that Gaddafi, in fact, cheated ... the Libyans stopped departures but had no way to stop migration flows together - in particular not the dynamics upstream. No coincidence that those who arrived in Libya was often stopped between Sebha and al-Kufra and brutality suffered by the authorities themselves who had endured up to that point, or was forced to move elsewhere - with the consequences that this could have in the Sahara.
What we never knew, because Gaddafi has fallen before, it is how such a system could hold, considering the gradual increase in migration over the years (even counting which of them stem from conflicts arising precisely from the fall of Gaddafi). How, that is, it would take the limbic system before being unable to control the numbers arriving, to avoid it, what effect would the diversion of flows to neighboring Algeria and Egypt?
This raises a number of fundamental problems in relation to certain options that are often cited in the political and public European and Italian, in particular the creation, directly in North Africa, in shelters or camps that serve as hubs, with the associated possibility of having to protect the armed forces (for example, under UN mandate). In short, what really means "sorting" migrants in Africa - which is what we are going to analyze now.
