http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3325825/Godzilla-El-Nino-getting-BIGGER-Weather-powerful-kind-record-warn-scientists.html
'Godzilla' El Niño is getting BIGGER: Weather system could be the most
powerful of its kind on record, warn scientists
Region in Central Pacific saw weekly average temperature of 3ºC (5ºF)
That's higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly recorded in huge 1997 El Niño
As a result India, Indonesia and Australia will be much drier than usual
Heavy rainfall is expected across Pacific and South American nations
By ELLIE ZOLFAGHARIFARD FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 13:26 EST, 19 November 2015 | UPDATED: 21:14 EST, 19 November
2015
Earlier this week, scientists said this year's 'El Niño' would be the
worst in more than 15 years.
Now researchers have upgraded that forecast to the weather system
being the worst of its kind on record.
Based on weekly data, the current El Niño is now stronger than the
huge events in 1982–83 and 1997–98, and likely 1877–78.
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Meteorologists measured record-high sea surface temperatures across
large parts of the central Pacific. The region is known as the Niño
3.4 and stretches between 90 degrees west and saw a weekly average
temperature of 3ºC (5ºF) above normal — higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly
recorded in 1997
WHAT IS EL NIÑO?
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the
Pacific Ocean around the equator.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation
of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the
Pacific.
This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific.
However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and
cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east. This causes the
eastern Pacific to get warmer.
But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this
causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer,
meaning the El Niño grows.
This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a
major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating
pressure anomalies in the atmosphere
One of the biggest indications that this year's El Niño will be huge
appeared over the past week, according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
Meteorologists measured record-high sea surface temperatures across
large parts of the central Pacific.
The region is known as the Niño 3.4 and stretches between 90 degrees
west and saw a weekly average temperature of 3ºC (5ºF) above normal —
higher than the 2.8ºC anomaly recorded in 1997.
It follows a report by Nasa on Monday which found October to be the
hottest such month since 1880. Scientists say El Niño is largely to
blame.
Global average surface temperatures last month were 1.04°C above the
long-term average - the greatest increase of any month ever recorded.
October 2015 also marks the first time a monthly temperature anomaly
exceeded 1°C in records dating back to 1880.
As well as increasing temperatures, a UN weather agency this week
warned that El Niño is already causing severe droughts and flooding
across the world.
'Severe droughts and devastating flooding being experienced throughout
the tropics and sub-tropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Niño,
which is the strongest in more than 15 years,' WMO chief Michel
Jarraud said.
El Niño is triggered by a warming in sea surface temperatures in the
Pacific Ocean.
It can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and
drought elsewhere.
The UN agency said this year's event was expected to push water
surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean more than 2°C
above normal.
The El Niño weather pattern, a phenomenon associated with extreme
droughts, storms and floods, is expected to strengthen before the end
of the year and become one of the strongest on record. El Niño was
already 'strong and mature' and the biggest in more than 15 years.
Pictured are warming patterns for last month
Shown here is the monthly the global average surface temperature in
October 2015 from between 1981 to 2015. Overall, global average
surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.64°C per century
This makes it one of the four strongest El Niños since 1950.
Previous particularly strong El Niños occurred in 1972-73, 1982-83 and
1997-98.
Typically, El Niño events reach their maximum strength between October
and January, but often continue to wreak havoc through the first
quarter of the year.
The phenomenon usually leaves countries like India, Indonesia and
Australia drier, increasing chances of wildfires and lower crop
production.
In recent months, extreme dry conditions caused by the El Niño have
sparked some of the worst forest fires in Indonesia's history.
The phenomenon also often leads to heavier rainfall in the eastern
Pacific and South American nations, raising the spectre of floods and
landslides.
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the
Pacific Ocean around the equator. Usually the wind blows strongly from
east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile
up in the western part of the Pacific
See how El Nino may affect global weather in 2015 & 2016
WMO linked this year's El Niño to the 'very active tropical cyclone
season' in the Pacific, including the record-breaking Hurricane
Patricia that hit Mexico last month.
The UN meanwhile warned last week that El Niño could significantly
increase the number of people going hungry.
It said countries like Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti are
expected to see drier conditions, and others, including Kenya, Somalia
and Uganda are at risk of floods.
While El Niño will certainly have severe impacts in many parts,
Jarraud said the world was far better prepared for the event than in
the past.
'The level of international, national and local mobilisation is truly
unprecedented,' he said.
HOW SIMILAR IS THIS YEAR'S EL NINO TO THE HUGE EVENT OF 1997?
If you live anywhere El Niño has important impacts, you've heard
forecasters say this year's event looks just like the monster El Niño
of 1997-98.
But when it comes to El Niños there are no identical twins. This
year's event hasn't always resembled the '97 one. Satellite
observations from early '97 and early '15 show conditions in the
Pacific Ocean that were, well, oceans apart.
In its 'normal' state, the Pacific is warm on the western side and
cooler in the east. That's what the ocean looked like in 1996 and
early 1997.
But over the past 18 months or so, satellite images have shown a large
pool of warm water hovering around the equator in the central Pacific
- neither west, as in a normal year, nor east, as in a typical El
Niño.
'That warm patch started last year and it never disappeared. It's very
peculiar behavior,' said Tong Lee, an oceanographer at Nasa's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.
This graphic shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea
surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015
with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño
In the first decade of the 2000s, scientists began noticing that warm
pools were appearing more frequently in the central equatorial
Pacific.
Since they look like El Niños but are in the wrong place, some began
calling them 'central Pacific El Niños.' Others use the name 'El Niño
Modoki,' Japanese for 'almost but not quite an El Niño.'
As a result, Lee thinks the coming winter could be a double whammy.
'Because the warming in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has been
lingering from 2014 to 2015, and now strong warming is developing in
the eastern equatorial Pacific, the question is whether in 2015 we're
going to see a combined impact.'
Nasa's Michelle Gierach, who studies the ocean response to El Niño,
has a wait-and-see attitude. 'All bets are off,' she said. 'Ocean
conditions before the 2015 El Niño make it unclear as to what impacts
we can expect. I feel like this one is an entirely different entity.'
Pictured is a comparison of sea surface height in the Pacific as
measured at the end of July in 1997 and 2015. Comparing the two years,
1997 seems slightly less intense. But trade winds collapsed and the
eastern Pacific warmed dramatically from August through November 1997,
setting the stage for a turbulent winter
Secretary-General of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Michel
Jarraud addresses a news conference on latest El Nino. While El Niño
will certainly have severe impacts in many parts, Jarraud said the
world was far better prepared for the event than in the past
He pointed out that a wide range of disaster management campaigns were
expected to 'save lives and minimise economic damage and disruption.'
But while scientific understanding of the phenomenon has increased,
Jarraud warned that due to climate change it could be 'playing out in
uncharted territory.'
Although scientists say climate patterns like El Niño are not caused
by climate change, rising ocean temperatures caused by global warming
is believed to impact their intensity and frequency.
'This naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate
change may interact and modify each other in ways we have never before
experienced,' Jarraud said.
'Even before the onset of El Niño, global average surface temperatures
had reached new records. El Niño is turning up the heat even further,'
he added.
HOW EL NIÑO WREAKS HAVOC THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
El Niño can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and
drought elsewhere. For instance, In recent months, extreme dry
conditions caused by the El Niño have sparked some of the worst forest
fires in Indonesia's history
South East Asia: El Niño is typically associated with drought in South
East Asia.
The weather pattern has helped fuel wildfires in Indonesia, among the
worst on record, which has caused dense haze to cover many parts of
Indonesia and other neighbouring countries, with significant
repercussions for health.
Pacific Islands: Historically, El Niño has caused reduced rainfall in
the southwest Pacific, from southern Papua New Guinea southeast to the
southern Cook Islands.
It has also enhanced rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.
South Asia: Southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department
reported that the June-September rainfall over India as a whole was 86
per cent of its long period average.
El Niño is believed to have played a key role in the rainfall deficit.
Eastern Africa: The October to December rainfall season is expected to
be highly influenced by El Niño.
Southern Africa; A number of countries in southern Africa are
reporting below average rainfall leading to drought conditions and
fears of food insecurity.
South America: El Niño has a major impact on a number of countries in
South America. For instance, in the 1997-98 El Niño, central Ecuador
and Peru suffered rainfall more than 10 times normal .
In Peru about 10 per cent of the health facilities were damaged.
National meteorological services throughout the region have been very
active in advising governments on preparedness measures to try to
limit damages from this year's El Niño.
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Received on Fri Nov 20 2015 - 06:46:22 EST