WorldBulletin.net: Djibouti: 16 years of failure

Ali Farah - Turkey

December 29, 2015

On 21st December this year 50 people are killed by the security forces of Djibouti, while more than 150 people wounded still missing. This event has created a shocking effect both inside and outside the country which have known as “a hub of peace” in a war torn region. On the other hand it has sparked anger and outrage among communities existing in the country, notably the family of the victims, Yonis Moussa.

According to reliable sources the cause of this sad and worrisome event happened after a ceremony intended to mourn the father or ancestor of Yonis Moussa and the security forces stormed the place of the ceremony. According to the government forces, the security forces defended themselves against some malicious people. However, the prominent figures of the family claim that they are targeted by president Guelleh and his close security officials. If this view gains acceptance, it will be the start of a civil unrest in this small Horn African nation. The reason is that apart from those killed by the bullets of security forces Mr.Guelleh has systematically and deliberately marginalized in both bureaucracy as it is the case of Dr.Hamoud, Abdourahman Mohamed Guelleh, Ch. Bachir and private sector; Boreh who are all from the Yonis Moussa family. It was also choking for Yonnis Moussa family to see their ex-minister in blood in the same day of the incident. The worst case is the case of Mohamed Daher Robleh; who is denaturalised and sent to exile. All these issues have brought the family together to get solutions to their social and political issues.

In fact reducing this event to a confrontation between the government and Yonis Moussa would be deceiving. The Monday’s event has upset the whole Djiboutian community regardless of their political and social background. Moreover, ethnic polarization has never been to this point in Djiboutian history. Instead of building a Djiboutian identity and meritocracy Guelleh has builtan aristocracy. Since his nomination, hisadministration has been characterised by nepotistic structures in which nominations are based on ethnic background his family getting the lion’s share of key positions both in bureaucracy and government. This cemented the ethnic division that was already the reason of inequality in the country. As a result, this incident is rather the final straw that exploded the social, economic and political grievance that exists in the country. This is because I called as 16 years of failure.

The other issue is the economic discontent that is present in the country. Since he came to power, Mr.Guelleh has created some extractive economic institutions giving privilege to his family members and close friends. For the last 16 years the state is utilised as an instrument to enrich and nourish the elite of the country. Guelleh created a class that literally rob the population through the state regulations and some luxurious contracts awarded by the government. Moreover, many foreign and local investors restrained from investing in the country because of the impunity of Guelleh family, government members and bureaucrats. As a result, the employment activities have shrunk which elevated the unemployment rate to almost 80% among young people and 60% total unemployment.

For a country whose population is around 1 million this rate of employment is enormously high. Instead of encouraging job creation the regime has chosen to take control of every private activity by handicapping businessmen who share different ideas and engaging in contracts that result the bankruptcy of Djiboutian entrepreneurs notably the “door-to-door agreement” with Ethiopia. Moreover, in April this year Aboubakar Haddi who is the director of state port authorities and close family member of the president entailed the Djiboutian transitors to deposit a sum of 150 000$ in state treasury in a period of one month causing the closing down of more than 100 transitors which each employed 10 Djiboutian. This caused anger in the society, specially the private sector which lacks an equal field of competition. Thus, the high unemployment rate is also a remarkable failure of IOG.

Moreover, Guelleh’s regime fall short addressing social issues such as the rampant corruption in the bureaucracy, housing, poor infrastructure, degrading health services and inflation. These issues have created a widespread despondency among the citizens, especially the intellectuals who seek refuge in western countries.

In 2012 when RADD has won the local elections, the Djiboutian people sent a message to the ruling party UMP. Moreover, another message was sent in the parliamentary elections of 2013 in which the newly founded opposition won many seats. However, the UMP side yet again could not draw a lesson from these defeats but instead started to oppress the opposition by accusing them to be mercenaries of some western nations and having a link with international terror groups which seems illogic. To Guelleh, some foreign nations, mainly France, are against China’s investment in the country. Debating the realistic nature of China’s investment in the country is another issue; the reality is that Guelleh is inventing a pretext to cover a failure of a decade and half.

As stated above, the incident that happened last Monday was the final straw that revealed social misery of the population. It seems to be the beginning of political and economic challenges that might last for at least 2 decades. Politically, on one hand it will not be easy for Guelleh to accept to have contenders on equal field, on the other hand the opposition is determined and inflexible on the democratization process and power shift in the country. In addition to this, there will be inevitable economic challenges, as the IMF report of 2015 indicates; external public and publicly guaranteed debt is projected to peak at about 81% of GDP in 2017-18. Thus, all these challenges will be a difficult task whoever comes to power.

In conclusion, IOG is likely to run for a fourth term amid a political turmoil in the country. But this time a rough and challenging field from the opposition and civil society is ahead of him. It seems that the incident of bulduqo, which happened on the 21st of December which is the deadliest of its kind in the country, will be the defining issue of the country’s politics.