http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/oped/Is-Africa-in-reverse-and-going-downhill-/1840568-3413654-g88pq6/index.html
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
WORLD VIEW : Is Africa in reverse and going downhill?
By Jonathan Power
Africa up or down? After 10 years of quite remarkable growth across
the continent most countries are experiencing a downturn, with average
growth nearer 3.75 per cent than 5 per cent as before.
Nigeria, the continent's most populous country with its largest
economy, was at one time growing year after year at 7+ per cent. Now
it looks like it's heading for recession and a growth rate pointing to
zero.
It has been hit by a six-fold whammy- oil prices sharply down, the
effects of the great recession in the industrialised countries, the
Chinese economy slowing, bad economic and foreign exchange policies
under the relatively new president, Muhammadu Buhari, increased
corruption under his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, and the war
against Boko Haram in the far north.
Nevertheless, Nigeria's non-oil sector - agriculture and manufacturing
- improved steadily until 2015, but now has plateaued. Some economists
have said that since that Nigerians can't get richer from oil they are
being forced to diversify.
Most African countries don't have such a string of problems. Star
performers, such as Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Rwanda,
Mauritius, Ghana and Ivory Coast, have avoided much of this
turbulence. They have benefited from low oil prices, good economic
policies, wise investment, an emphasis on industrialisation and an
ability to attract foreign aid.
Also from the lack of wars. Although the number of wars across the
continent has fallen sharply these countries have outshone their peers
in either keeping the country peaceful for decades or by rapidly
binding the wounds after conflict. The number of violent deaths is
sharply down. A few states such as Somalia, Sudan and the Central
African Republic are suffering from war but it remains a small number.
The latest ranking of the world's most violent countries by the NGO,
the Geneva Declaration, includes only two African states among its top
ten- tiny Swaziland and Lesotho.
Look at Tanzania, one of the continent's great performers. Right
through the world economic crisis it has kept its growth steady at
around 7 per cent. Therefore it is doubling its income per head every
ten years - in the capital, Dar es Salaam, every five. It has
increased manufacturing and mining at a handsome rate. It has had some
success in battling corruption. It has made great discoveries of
natural gas and thus is building up its electricity supplies. Its
agricultural production is rising. Income distribution from richer to
poorer has also improved.
Other countries have done even better in some ways. In Ethiopia
industrialisation has spurted. It now about to assemble Chinese mobile
phones. In Kenya and Nigeria the high-tech sector has become
world-class, innovating across the board, pioneering money transfers
over long distances and telephone-banking to go with it, that
industrialised countries are only belatedly getting round to.
M-Koa, a Kenyan firm, is expanding across east Africa, selling its
solar powered battery systems, which contain a torch and a
mobile-phone charger.
Infant and maternal mortality have sharply improved almost continent
wide. The number of people living on $1.90 a day has fallen steadily
from 46 per cent in 2012 to 35 per cent at the end of 2015. Compared
with Asia this is insufficient but then Africa is still fighting
population growth. However, in Ethiopia the birth rate is the same as
London- around 2 per cent.
Rwanda has not only picked itself up after the Great Genocide of 1994
with a high growth rate, it has almost rid itself of corruption and
has improved its income distribution significantly.
Many African countries have found that they can increase wellbeing
faster than some of the wealthier ones. Countries that do more with
less - improved education, health, security and opportunity - include
Senegal, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Kenya.
Trade barriers have fallen between some African countries and regional
trade arrangements are increasing in number. Five of the ten fastest
performers in the World Bank's latest report on the ease of doing
business are African.
Africa gets an unfair press. Yes, corruption and administration are
often bad- some say worse in some countries- but wars and famines are
not spreading. There are some remarkably advanced cities like Calabar
in Nigeria, Dakar in Senegal and Dar es Salaam, with healthy people
and clean streets with trees and flowers planted on the verges. There
one can see the Africa of the future. Where is the press?
Received on Wed Oct 12 2016 - 13:39:57 EDT