https://www.ft.com/content/68ce1c80-b890-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d
Ethiopia
Discontent grows louder in Ethiopia as regime fights for survival
Arrest of opposition leader Merera Gudina follows months of
anti-government protests
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Anti-government protesting in the town of Bishoftu during the
October's Oromo new year holiday © AFP
DECEMBER 3, 2016
by: John Aglionby in Addis Ababa
Angered by the arrest of Merera Gudina, his party leader, hours
earlier for allegedly “making contact with terrorist groups”, a senior
figure in Ethiopia’s opposition said he was willing to commit a crime
under the country’s strict state of emergency laws by criticising the
ruling party.
The Oromo Federal Congress executive, who asked for anonymity, was
scathing about the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front,
the coalition that has governed the African nation for 25 years and
controls every seat in the Addis Ababa parliament.
“People want total change. This means the EPRDF has to hold a free and
fair election,” he told the Financial Times in an interview. “But they
interpret that as wanting to overthrow the government by force. They
will cut your neck for saying so.”
At first glance Addis Ababa, a city of more than 3m people at the
centre of one of the continent’s fastest-growing economies, appears to
be normal. But beneath the surface it is clear that Ethiopia’s
authoritarian rulers are in a fight for survival as they combat
unprecedented levels of discontent.
The regime, which is dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, who comprise only
6 per cent of the population, admits that more than 500 people have
probably been killed since anti-government protests began 13 months
ago. Two months into what is expected to be a six-month state of
emergency, 11,600 people have been arrested.
Comment
Ethiopia faces its Tiananmen Square moment
Alarmed by a wave of protests, the regime has answered as the Chinese
did in 1989 — with bullets
Opposition groups say the real figures are several times this.
However, both sides’ claims are impossible to verify since neither
gives evidence and the internet has been shut down in vast swaths of
the country, stifling communication.
The strategy of Hailemariam Desalegn, prime minister since the death
in 2012 of long-time strongman Meles Zenawi, appears to be to crush
dissent, reshuffle the cabinet and focus on inclusive growth.
“Our democratisation process is still nascent,” he said recently. “It
is moving in the right direction, but it has not yet come up with
inclusive engagement.”
Diplomats in Addis Ababa described the government’s response as
“superficial”. “They have failed to address the underlying grievances
that caused the protests in the first place,” one said.
Demonstrations began in November 2015 in opposition to a government
plan to extend Addis Ababa into the surrounding Oromia region. The
initiative was eventually shelved but the heavy-handed response
brought deeper-rooted complaints to the surface.
These included perceived inequitable benefits from more than a decade
of double-digit economic growth, nepotism, land-grabbing and a lack of
democracy. Memories of a brutal government crackdown after the 2005
election remain strong.
The protests spread to Amhara, and the peoples of the two regions, who
make up 65 per cent of the population but for decades have rarely seen
eye-to-eye, became united in opposition to the regime. But rather than
engage their opponents, the ruling elite became inward-looking and
repressive.
Merera Gudina, leader of Ethiopia's biggest opposition coalition,
addresses supporters at a rally in the Oromia region © Reuters
“They only talk to themselves and their echo-chamber is very loud but
it’s soundproofed on the outside so they only hear their own
propaganda,” said the diplomat.
Analysts say the regime’s development model, the foundation of its
legitimacy, is becoming an increasingly large Achilles heel. It is
founded on copying nations such as South Korea, Singapore and China,
which prioritised state-led development over democracy and until last
year it proved extremely successful.
Grand infrastructure projects, such as dams and industrial parks,
combined with political stability attracted droves of investors,
particularly from China. Foreign direct investment rose from $78m in
2008 to an expected $2.5bn this year.
But as Zemedeneh Negatu, a prominent Ethiopian business leader said:
“These big economic bets they want to make take time to pay off . . .
and the space [available] to allow these bets to deliver is much
shorter than the environment the Asian tigers operated in the 1960s
and ’70s.”
“Furthermore, the advent of new technologies has elevated the public’s
expectations of the timing and the quality of the deliverables.”
Protests have so far put only a slight brake on economic growth. Major
investments are still announced each week and on Friday the government
said economic growth in its 2015/16 financial year was still 8 per
cent despite a bad drought.
Yet such continued strong growth makes little difference to the
regime’s opponents.
“Even if they bring gold and diamonds, people have given up on this
government,” said a student activist, too afraid to give his name.
“They will do whatever it takes to see change. The only question is
how long it will take. Maybe five years, we hope only one.”
Online blackout takes toll on Ethiopian economy
The government shutdown of mobile internet in much of Ethiopia might
have stymied the opposition but it is also taking an economic toll.
A consultant for Asian textile manufacturers in the new Hawessa
industrial park said: “I don’t know how much we are losing because it
is so hard to communicate. But we are certainly losing a lot.”
Deloitte, the advisory group, estimates the shutdown is costing the
Ethiopian economy about $500,000 a day. Economists say that is
significant in a country where per capita GDP is $505.
A western businessman, in Addis Ababa to sign a contract with the
government, said he could not even access his email via his hotel’s
WiFi because of the restrictions. “I have never experienced anything
like it,” he said. “Hopefully we will still be able to sign our deal.”
While western embassies say inquiries about new investment are slowing
because of the uncertainty, no one in Addis Ababa said the curbs were
prompting them to leave. “This is too big a market to ignore,” said a
spokesman for a multinational company with a facility in Ethiopia. “We
have got to be here.”
Received on Sun Dec 04 2016 - 15:25:00 EST