The Horn of Africa is experiencing a devastating drought, which has left more than 15 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia facing food and water shortages and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

The October-December rains have been well below average so far, and since the declared arrival of La Niña, concerns about the next rains - due in March-May 2017 - are now growing.
The region is in crisis. We cannot wait for those rains to fail – we must collectively act now to prevent this crisis becoming a catastrophe, and implement the lessons learned from the 2010-11 drought, in which 258,000 people lost their lives.

Millions of people in the Horn of Africa have been desperately waiting for rains which were due to start in early October. The region is experiencing a devastating drought, which is ravaging crops and pasture across parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and elsewhere.

More than 15 million people in these three countries alone are facing food and water shortages and are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

Drought and erratic rains linked to the 2015-16 El Niño - one of the strongest ever recorded - have been followed by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole4 , closely associated with depressed rains across the region. So far the October-December rains have been well below average. A weak La Niña has now also been declared5 , raising concerns about the next rains, due in March-May 2017.

The region is already in crisis. We cannot wait for those rains to fail before we respond – we must collectively act now to prevent this crisis becoming a catastrophe, implementing the lessons learned from the 2010-11 drought in which 258,000 people lost their lives.

In Somalia, 5 million people have been affected by the drought, with 1.14 million facing crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity through December 2016, and the severity of food insecurity expected to increase during the January-March 2017 lean season.

Over 320,000 acutely malnourished children need urgent nutrition support10; in some villages, older children are being asked to skip meals and give their food to livestock, whose milk is crucial for younger children. Education is being severely disrupted as families move to other locations in search of food and water.12 Vegetation conditions are the worst on record in many areas, surpassing those observed during the 2010/11 drought13. Puntland is particularly badly affected, as are south-central Somalia and Somaliland. In parts of Somaliland, the average distance to water points has risen to 50 km, and some communities are travelling as far as 125km. Water consumption has dropped to just 3 litres per person per day14, well below the lowest SPHERE minimum standard of 7.5 litres for basic water needs.

In Ethiopia, which suffered severe drought as a result of the 2015-16 El Niño, the government and its humanitarian partners expect some 5.6 million people to require emergency food assistance in 2017 as a result of a ‘new drought’ affecting southern and south-eastern regions. 1.2 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers will require supplementary feeding, and an estimated 300,000 children will become severely acutely malnourished. 9.2 million people will not have regular access to safe drinking water. And while forecasts suggest harvests in northern and western regions will be relatively successful, many of those affected by the El Niño drought have been left destitute after losing their productive assets, and continue to have acute recovery needs.

An estimated 1.25 million people in Kenya are affected by drought, with those in the northern Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) region and in coastal areas facing greatest food insecurity. Poor households in these areas - including parts of Laisamis in Marsabit, Tana North in Tana River, and Fafi, Balambala, and Dadaab in Garissa - are at crisis levels of food insecurity,17 and Global Acute Malnutrition levels of more than 20 percent (i.e. well above the 15 percent ‘critical’ threshold set by WHO18) are present in parts of Turkana, Mandera, Baringo and Marsabit.19 Kenya’s pastoralist communities have seen milk production drop by up to 60 percent,20 and eight counties have reported drought-related livestock deaths.21 Many more households are likely to face food gaps during the January to April dry season.

In the wake of the devastating 2010-11 drought in the Horn of Africa, governments and the international community recognised the need for transformative, systemic change to break the cycle of food insecurity in the region.23 The IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability