The President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni receives the EU Commissioner for Human Aid and Crisis , HE Stylianides Christos , EU Ambassador Kristian Schmidt together with their delegation shortly before their meeting at State House Entebbe on Nov. 10.

Professors show why Museveni will win

One such case is Museveni's Nov. 18 comment on U.S. elections and the UK referendum in which he bluntly warned foreigners to stay out of Uganda's local politics.

Museveni wrote that, in his view, western donors always add more problems to situations they invite themselves to than solutions they claim to come with.

The academicians say the impending removal of the presidential age limit and the changing geopolitical dynamics are likely to determine the future of Museveni's relationship with the West.

In their view, removal of the presidential age-limit is certain to jeopardise Uganda's democratic progress. But, they say, it is unlikely to hurt the alliance between Museveni and the donors in any significant way.

For donors to withdraw their support altogether, Museveni would first have to become "more of a liability than an asset in pursuing their interests", they say in the conclusion of their new multi-themed book titled 'Controlling Consent: Uganda's 2016 Elections'. The authors are mainly academics from Makerere University in Kampala.

Additionally, they would have to "grow too weary of his tactics of blackmail and find a suitable alternative "big man" in the region to replace him with", notes part of the 540-page anthology, which inquires into the disputed 2016 general polls and what they portend for the future of Uganda.

"Over the last 30 years donors have developed a critical stake in the NRM regime from which they have found it difficult to disentangle," the book notes in its introduction.

"While Museveni has over the years become more abusive, disdainful and even dismissive of them, the donors still believe that he is their best option to retain "peace and stability" in Uganda, as well as to play a crucial role on the issue of security and containing the terrorist threat in the wider Eastern Africa/Greater Horn region.

"Will the same considerations still apply as we move on to 2021... Will donors continue to back him even after (or rather, when) he lifts Article 102(b) from the Constitution?" that, the book says, is the million dollar question.

Although donor support to Kampala has diminished (currently at around 25% in direct budgetary support), they retain significant influence over the country.

For instance, the decision by the World Bank to suspend lending in August contributed to the current economic tailspin. This forced government into negotiations for the reopening of taps, which the Bank has promised to reconsider.

Uganda's leading donors have, however, remained silent over the nascent manoeuvres to remove age limit.

An official at the European Union (EU), the country's top donor, said they could not comment on it.

The silence underlines recent frosty exchanges between Kampala and its diplomatic corps over what the latter see as increasing regression in the former's democratic gains.

In May this year the Head of the EU in Uganda directly called for change if the government wanted to preserve its legacy, to ensure peace and stability, and to secure the future.

"Even if you just want steady progress, change is needed," said Mr Kristian Schmidt, channelling the NRM's campaign slogan in the 2016 elections.

But as the West has criticised him and sought to decrease direct support to Kampala, Museveni has sought and found new sources of aid from the likes of China, Russia and even North Korea.

As academicians see it, these have relieved Museveni of the burden to constantly reinvent himself to curry favour with Western donors, which he has done all of his three decades in power to date.

The changes explain why he is increasingly forceful in pushing back against criticism, and why he gets away with it.

Donors' dilemma

The jostling for global supremacy means the West finds itself between a rock and hard place. It faces the unenviable task to balance its "rhetoric of promoting democratic reform in Uganda" and the need to not lose its dominance in Uganda, the East African region and indeed Africa as a whole.

So, while tensions are bound to increase between Museveni and the West, the academics say criticism from the latter should be taken with a big pinch of salt.

"While there is a rise in criticism of the NRM regime, it is important to note that these are carefully calculated statements of condemnation. Indeed, they ring hollow to the average Ugandan given the continued support Museveni receives from Western donors," writes Prof. Sylvia Tamale, one of the book's contributing authors.

"The occasional reproach and warnings are simply efforts by the donors to keep a "tight leash" on an ally who is spiralling out of control. In other words, donors are trying to mitigate against Museveni's excessive power abuse in order to maintain their geostrategic interests in the region," added Ms Tamale, a Professor of Law at Makerere University.

Museveni has greatly relied on donor support to sustain himself in power since 1986. They, in turn, have relied on him as much to pursue their foreign policy agendas most recently the fight against terror, the book notes in part.

There is a belief among a section of people that were the West to part ways with Museveni; it would hasten the continually elusive transition of power in Uganda.

What is worrying though, for many, is that this much desired changeover could be a messy one as has happened in a number of African countries that have dispensed with long running leaders.

Museveni is ineligible to run again in 2021 unless Article 102(b) of the Constitution is amended, a process that seems already in the works.

The Article states a person is not qualified for election as President unless he or she is not less than 35 years and not more than 75 years of age. Museveni will be 77 years old by the time of the next election.

According to Controlling Consent, removal of the presidential age limit is the only remaining hurdle in Museveni's apparent bid for a life presidency.

Removing the age bar will take away all pretence to democratic governance. It will further expose the sharp variance between what donors claim to be their highest priority - promotion of democratic governance, rule of law and respect for human rights - and what they really care about: pursuing economic/military interests.

"If age limits are removed from our Constitution - as they will eventually be - there is no way in which we can look forward to a deepening democracy in Uganda because it implies that the semi-accountable presidency we now have will be replaced with an imperial presidency with no possibility of peaceful change," says Prof. Joe Oloka-Onyango, the book's co-editor.

Although Museveni is on record saying he will "certainly not" cling to power past the age of 75 years, his ruling NRM party has not stopped mobilising to remove the age cap. It has been linked to a legal petition challenging age restriction for public service, which some observers see as a ruse for lifting the presidential age limit.

On September 30 this year, three people petitioned the Constitutional Court over the mandatory retirement of public workers, including the President. They say it is discriminatory, amounts to "ageism", and has been outlawed in a number of countries.

"We believe retirement based on age should be voluntary and only after due evaluation and consideration of an individual's mental and physical capacity to perform the specific task or job and not mandatory as it infringes on other fundamental human rights as enshrined in the 1995 Constitution," reads their petition in part.

The case followed an introduction of a Bill in Parliament that sought, among other things, to rise the retirement age of judges. The Bill, too, was seen as preparing the ground for the scrapping of the age limit by binding the fortunes of the Judiciary with those of the President.

"Since the promulgation of the 1995 Constitution a number of safeguards against the creation and entrenchment of an imperial presidency have been whittled down," according to Busingye Kabumba, a lecturer of Constitutional Law at Makerere University and one of the contributing authors in Controlling Consent.

"The challenge for those who would defend constitutional ideals, is that the threats to these ideals are today presented in more sophisticated terms, which appropriate the terminology and mechanisms of more progressive actors. Under this fashion, illiberal amendments to the Constitution are justified as exercises of popular sovereignty," adds Kabumba.

Museveni's previous tinkering with the Constitution in 2005 by removing term limits in order to extend his rule earned him criticism. He was accused of endangering the stability of the nation, which he had helped establish, by setting the country back onto a path to its troubled past. He, however, never suffered any aid cuts.

Similar criticism has been made since the disputed February 18 polls through which he extended his 30-year rule to date by another five.