http://www.thewhig.com/2016/02/05/el-nino-slams-africa
El Nino creates African crisis
By Geoffrey Johnston
The issues of war and peace and refugees tend to dominate headlines and capture the public’s attention, while extreme weather patterns and famine in the developing world are largely ignored.
“The food crisis in Ethiopia — and similar situations in other countries affected by El Nino — has been growing in the shadow of conflicts and refugee crises elsewhere,” said Simran Singh, a senior manager with CARE Canada.
Make no mistake, the situation is dire. “It is clear that there is no time to lose in ensuring that help reaches the most vulnerable people before it is too late,” he said.
“El Nino is a weather phenomenon in which warming conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean affect weather systems around the globe so that some places receive more rain while others receive none at all. Some areas get colder, others warmer, with more extreme weather patterns becoming the norm rather the exception,” Singh explained in an email.
“For the world’s most vulnerable people, such shifts in weather patterns can lead to devastating results,” he said. “Prolonged droughts can put tens of millions of people at immediate risk of hunger leading to malnutrition, while intense rainfall can bring flooding and wash away homes and future harvests.”
Early warning
In October 2015, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) issued a statement to alert the world that “an estimated 60 million people across sub-Saharan Africa, a population roughly equal to the size of the United Kingdom,” were living with food insecurity and that agricultural production would likely deteriorate further due to weather conditions.
According to the IFRC, “a series of climatic shocks in 2014 and 2015 decimated harvests, leaving many people dependent on food aid to survive.” And the El Nino phenomenon is compounding those pre-existing problems.
In what ways is El Nino affecting agricultural production in developing countries? “With some countries receiving too much rain and others not enough, the impact has varied,” answered the CARE Canada representative. “From drought and cyclones to flooding and forest fires, the effects of El Nino have destroyed crops and livelihoods, threatened water supplies and left a lasting impact on millions of people, particularly those in the poorest households, whom are vulnerable even in normal weather.”
According to the Amanda Thorsteinsson, “the level of acute need across virtually all humanitarian sectors has already exceeded levels seen in the Horn of Africa drought of 2011 and is projected to be far more severe throughout an eight-month period in 2016.” In addition, the spokesperson for the Canadian Foodgrains Bank said that approximately 200,000 livestock died in 2015 due to weather-related conditions, and “this is expected to double in the coming year.”
Where is El Nino causing the most harm? “At the moment, the impact of El Nino is being felt most severely in southern and eastern Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda,” replied Unni Krishnan, who is in charge of disaster preparedness and response at Plan International.
“Countries in eastern Africa are experiencing droughts, while countries in southern Africa, such as Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, are dealing largely with flood problems,” said Krishnan in an email. According to the Office for Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), food shortages in East Africa, especially in Ethiopia, will be acute in 2016.
Food insecurity and famine
Food security is precarious at the best of times in sub-Saharan Africa and Zimbabwe. “Flooding and dry conditions have affected crop production across the region,” said Katherine Mueller, communications manager for IFRC Africa. “In southern Africa, every country has recorded significant declines in the production of maize, the regional staple,” she said in an email.
“Due to annual recurring climatic events, many families remain in a perpetual cycle of vulnerability,” Mueller stated. “They just don’t have time to rebound between one event and another. El Nino has exacerbated that.”
According to the IFRC staffer, 25 of 28 districts in Malawi are experiencing lower crop yields and acute food shortages. “Prices for food staples, such as maize, are currently 61 per cent above the three-year average,” she added.
Back in 1984, the world was shocked by images of starving children in famine ravaged Ethiopia. Flash forward to 2016, and the news media is paying scant attention to a new crisis in Ethiopia.
“Poor rainfall over the past year, mainly due to the continuing El Nino, has had a severe impact on many communities, particularly in Ethiopia,” said Thorsteinsson. “Ethiopia is currently experiencing what could be its worst drought in 50 years,” added Mueller. In addition, Sudan, Eritrea, Uganda and Djibouti are being negatively affected by El Nino.
“Small-scale farmers often have a tough go at it at the best of times, and the El Nino-related drought has made it even harder for them to grow enough food,” said Thorsteinsson in an email. In addition, she pointed out, “pastoralists who rely on their animals for much of their livelihoods are also suffering, as food and water sources for their livestock are becoming scarce.”
In October 2015, the Ethiopian government declared that millions of its citizens required emergency food assistance, including 4.6 million children.
“In Ethiopia, consecutive failed rains in 2015, exacerbated by El Nino, have resulted in 10.2 million people needing emergency food assistance,” Mueller said. “Even if adequate rainfall comes soon, there won’t be any harvests until June or July. The current hunger situation is, therefore, only expected to worsen.” According to the Canadian Foodgrains Bank representative, the number of the people in need will rise to an estimated 15 million this year.
The number of people in eastern Africa living with food insecurity is staggering. Plan International’s Krishnan estimates that 22 million people in the region are currently having trouble accessing food, which represents “an approximate increase of 83 per cent from the same time last year.”
In addition, the situation in southern Africa will probably deteriorate further later this year. Although the crisis will ease somewhat during the spring harvest, Krishnan predicts that “food security is likely to begin deteriorating by July, reaching its peak between December 2016 and March 2017.”
Negative coping strategies
According to Mueller, many people confronted by food shortages and price spikes adopt negative coping strategies, including “eating one meal a day, pulling children out of school and making them work, women trading sex for material goods, and selling valuable livestock at greatly reduced prices.” Similarly, Krishnan said that children could end up serving as domestic servants or find themselves begging on the streets or performing dangerous labour.
When families struggle to survive, parents in certain cultures sometimes contemplate the unthinkable. “In communities where early marriage is seen as culturally acceptable,” Krishnan said, “parents in poor households may force young girls into forced marriages in an attempt to reduce the number of mouths to be fed, leading to almost irreversible consequences for these young girls.”
“Children, as well as pregnant women and nursing mothers,” Krishnan said, “are among the most vulnerable groups and will be at high risk of malnutrition due to inadequate food and nutrition.”
According to the IFRC’s Mueller, malnutrition in children is high in affected countries and will likely worsen in the near future. “Countries in southern Africa report stunting rates in children above 20 per cent, the level deemed unacceptable by the World Health Organization,” Mueller said.
The impact of this latest crisis will likely have lasting negative consequences. According to Thorsteinsson, “this episode of the El Nino threatens to undermine livelihoods and erode development progress that has been made.”
Received on Sat Feb 06 2016 - 09:26:24 EST