Paul Richardson, Bloomberg, M&G Africa Writer

09 Feb 2016 19:12

ATTACKS by Islamist militants in Kenya dropped to the lowest level in three years in 2015, a result of better intelligence gathering by the authorities and infighting among fighters in neighbouring Somalia over their allegiance to Islamic State and al-Qaeda.

The improved security situation may help East Africa’s leading economy revive its tourism industry—a key source of foreign exchange that had slumped since raids by Islamist militants intensified in 2012.

It could also boost the government’s efforts to attract investment into projects such as the $26 billion Lamu Port Southern Sudan Ethiopia Transport corridor that would build infrastructure including a railway and an oil pipeline across Kenya’s northern region, close to Somali border..

The number of militant attacks in Kenya dropped to 46 last year, about half the figure of 2014 and the lowest since 2011, according to data compiled by Verisk Maplecroft, a Bath, England-based risk consultancy; although one incident – the Garissa University attack in April 2015 – had the highest death toll of a single terrorist incident in nearly two decades, at 148 killed.

The overall downward trend is confirmed by statistics collated by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which is run by the University of Sussex in the U.K. and draws on reports from the media, humanitarian agencies and other groups. Its data shows the number of “conflict events” in Kenya dropped to 306 last year—the lowest level since 2012.

A dispute between members of al-Shabaab in the second half of 2015 over their allegiances to al-Qaeda or Islamic State, also known as Daesh, probably contributed to the decline in the number of attacks last year, Emma Gordon, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said by phone from Uganda.

“Good” squabbling

“Infighting in al-Shabaab between Daesh and al-Qaeda loyalists preoccupied the group in the latter half of 2015 and reduced their focus on external attacks,” Gordon said. “Also, a number of pro-Daesh al-Shabaab members have been purged, many of whom are understood to be of Kenyan origin.”

In 2015, ACLED recorded 14,640 conflict events on the African continent, which would include political violence, civil wars, battles against armed groups, riots and protests.

The number of armed conflict incidences decreased by 14.0% compared to the previous year, marking the first negative trend since 2009. In a number of countries, including Central African Republic, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia, conflict levels declined by more than 20% over one year.

Still, armed Islamist groups were also among the most lethal perpetrators of civilian violence, according to ACLED. Boko Haram, Al Shaabab, the Egypt-based State of Sinai and the offshoots of the Islamic State in Libya and Tunisia were responsible for more than half of all violence against civilians in Africa, pointing to the increased operational capacity of these groups.

Battles between armed groups made up 27.6% of all conflict events and more than half of total related fatalities: despite a relative annual decrease, battles still featured prominently in Africa’s conflict landscape, shows ACLED data.

In northern Africa, armed Islamist groups linked to the Islamic State and Al Qaeda established a regular presence in the Libyan cities of Derna and Sirte and to launch large-scale attacks against Tunisian and Egyptian military forces, thus consolidating their outreach across the region.

Mali saw a resurgence of conflict in 2015, as Tuareg insurgents and Islamist groups intensified their attacks against state forces and UN troops in the north of the country,

Extended presence

In central Africa, Boko Haram extended its regional presence to Chad and Niger, while DRC, Sudan and South Sudan remain major conflict hotspots.  Somalia witnessed the highest number of battles in Africa, with 1,296 events recorded in 2015.

Political militias carried out 46.3% of total attacks on civilians across the continent, although their incidence declined by around 8% as a result of the re-categorization of Boko Haram into a rebel group, following a change in its aims and goals, indicates ACLED.

These findings illustrate the complex and changing patterns of conflict across the continent: while overall political violence seemed to decrease in 2015, civil wars, armed insurgencies and violence against civilians remain a major source of conflict and instability.

In Kenya’s case, the reduction in the number of attacks is linked to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s enacting of a law in December 2014 to strengthen coordination among the country’s security agencies. 

The legislation “empowered the police, intelligence and the military, and brought together many players in terms of addressing security,” said Sebastian Gatimu, a researcher on crime and governance at the Institute for Security Studies in Nairobi, the capital.

The Verisk Maplecroft data shows that last year, 46 militant attacks took place, while in 2014, at least 94 incidents took place. he previous year, in 2013, 58 attacks took place, including the attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi in which at least 67 people died.

The corruption link

The U.S. last year committed at least $40 million to help counter violent extremism in East Africa and has signed an agreement with Kenya to help improve management of the security agencies. U.S. drone strikes on members of al-Shabaab have also bolstered Kenyan, Ethiopian and other African troops fighting the insurgents in southern and central Somalia.

“The cooperation with the U.S. has been concentrated on Somalia, but it’s had a knock-on effect,” Gordon said. “A lot of the intelligence they’ve gathered has been useful in Kenya.”

The declining trend needs to be sustained in order to have any substantial impact on investor sentiment toward Kenya, said Gatimu.

“The fear is that the government has not been able to fight corruption in the security sector, which is a huge hindrance in terms of securing citizens,” he said. 

—With assistance from Nasreen Seria.