Radical change of course for Ethiopia, or implosion: A commentary on Lt. General Tsadkan Gebre Tensay’s article in Amharic

*ሓለቓ ወትህደራዊ ስታፍ ወያነ ነበር ድሕሪ ፍሹል ወራር ውግእ እግረ-መኸል 1999 ብሓይልታት ምክልኻል ኤርትራ ብዝወረዶ ዓቢ ክሳራን ስዕረትን  ኣብ ላዕለዎት ውትሃደራዊ ኣዘዝቲ ዝገብሮ ኣኼባ ዘልቀሰ ሌፍተናንት ጀነራል ነበር ጻድቃን ገብረትንሳኤ

Ethiopia under the TPLF/EPRDF has come to a dead end, change of course towards a constitutional democracy or a nightmarish scenario of Ethiopia imploding could follow, Lt. General Tsadkan Gebre Tensay asserts. The lengthy article published on Horn Affairs by Lt. General Tsadkan G. Tensay, one of the top former leaders of the TPLF and Chief of Staff of the armed forces for close to a decade, is very interesting development in recent times where the TPLF/EPRDF regime is embroiled from one crisis into another, unable to handle the multiple faultiness and facing total loss of support by the populace in all four corners of Ethiopia. One should recall that the regime declared itself a winner of 100% seat of parliament just a year ago, in May of 2015. In dissecting the all-around crisis the regime is mired in, the General does not mince words and shy away from being very frank in telling as is the pervasive crises of state, crisis of confidence, crisis of legitimacy, and all around crisis – political, economic, massive corruption including by METEC, a quasi-military industrial complex run by TPLF generals, and the many other faultiness. He also admits and comments on the pervasive hatred and resentment harbored by the majority towards Tigrayans, one of the hallmarks of today’s Ethiopia under the minority TPLF regime, turning to a tragic course.

General Tsadkan also throws powerful salvos and trenchant criticisms of the existing dictatorial political and suffocating economic oligarchy instituted by the TPLF/EPRDF. He states, point blank, the dead end reached by the minority regime. He indicates, unless there is a fundamental change, a potentially tragic, indeed, epochal nightmarish, scenario of Ethiopia imploding as a multi-ethnic nation/ a multi-ethnic national with historic continuity since antiquity, albeit checkered by expansions and contractions for millennia.

What makes General Tsadkan’s assessment of current conditions in Ethiopia interesting, pertinent, and somewhat unique? Such a perspective about the nation’s tragic condition under the current regime is coming, perhaps for the first time, in a radical and bold fashion, from one of the top leaders of the TPLF and a one-time Chief of Staff of the armed forces from the ascent to power of the TPLF in 1991 until 2001, before being ousted by Meles during the Tigray People Liberation Front’s (TPLF) split. His recommendations for a way forward and solutions therefore has gone beyond what critics of the regime, the likes of Gen. Abebe Tekle Haimnot, a former Airforce Commander, ousted by Meles during TPLF’s split as well, and many others have said and written in recent months as regard to the all-around mess and crisis Ethiopia finds itself.

Many scholars and analysts alike have commented about the instability of the current track pursued assiduously by the minority regime of the TPLF/EPRDF. The faultiness are expanding, the contradictions heightened, there is a widening gulf separating the state and the people, chasm exists between the corrupt and inept army’s top echelons who are Tigrayan TPLF generals and the rank and file and line officers in discontent who are non-Tigrayns by overwhelming majority, the chasm between Tigrayans and non-Tigrayans, and resultant widespread perception that Tigrayns, wholesale, have become enablers and apologists of a very corrupt, ethnocratic, and brutal minority regime, etc. have all been analyzed; especially after the Oromo protest that rocked the Oromo region and beyond, proving the fallacy under the very foundation of the TPLF/EPRDF regime’s two decade long narrative that Ethiopia, as a democratic and federal state , for the first time in its history, has brought about the equality of the nations and nationalities that constitute it.

Under this narrative, Ethiopia, under the current minority TPLF/EPRDF regime, has granted and upheld the equality of all nations and nationalities, including devolution and decentralization of power to the regions for the nations and nationalities to govern their respective regions. This narrative, however, has been busted as a result of the many identity conflicts and popular demands for genuine self-governance in zonal and regional affairs that have been popping up throughout Ethiopia, in particular, the massive and widespread Oromo protest that was triggered by the Addis Ababa Master. The Oromo protest is still continuing despite the ruthless massacre of over 500 Oromos by the regime’s Special Forces and the arrest of tens of thousands in Oromia region in the past nine months.

Like in the Oromo region, as a result of years pent up grievances, injustice, inequality, and lack of rights to protest and assert ethnic identities, despite the official’s claims to the contrary, has been simmering in many part of Ethiopia. Just few weeks ago it came to the open, spreading to Northern Gondar, Amhara region, where the historically Amhara region of Wolkayit, Tegede and Telemt along the border of formerly, during previous regime, Gondar and Tigray provinces was annexed and made part of Tigray by the TPLF. Along with a unilateral decision to annex the sub region to Tigray, the Amhara inhabitants were forced to change their identity for the past 25 years since the annexation. Now the Amharas of Wolkayit, Tegede and Telemt, after trying all legal and peaceful avenues to lodge their demands, have resorted to armed rebellion and disobedience to resist an unjust act that has been imposed on their very existence as a people of Amhara ethnic origin, separate from Tigray and Tigrayan ethnic stock. These are just few of the major faultiness besetting the minority regime of the TPLF/EPRDF that has used brutal force to suppress all forms of demands coming from many sectors of the populace throughout Ethiopia and during the past 25 years of its tenure on state power.

Enter General Tsadkan, he recognizes the aforementioned all around crisis and more. In his sober assessment of the all-around faultiness that are obtaining in Ethiopia, he concludes that the status quo is not sustainable, that Ethiopia must democratize. The current one party dictatorship of the TPLF/EPRDF needs to give way to a genuine multiparty democracy with leveled playing fields for all political forces and that a genuinely free, fair and transparent election monitored by the international community has to be held during the next election cycle. And short of that we, as a people and as a multiethnic polity, are heading towards an implosion and a bottomless abyss. Thus, concludes Gen. Tsadkan in a very thoughtful and analytical article he penned.

Foreign and security policy circles of Western governments, especially the US and UK, allied to the minority TPLF/EPRDF regime, have been in denial as regard to the prevailing and unsustainable conditions in Ethiopia. Due to their primarily reason for supporting the regime, as an ally in the war against terrorism and extremism in the Horn of Africa, and these governments continue to act like the proverbial ostrich that buried its head in sand. However, sober and objective assessment of Ethiopia by foreign analysts and leaders of credible International rights organizations have come to recognize the all-around crisis situation in Ethiopia and the widening faultiness in the society as result of the regime’s dictatorial actions and measures.

These foreign analysts and leaders of rights organizations have, even in recent weeks, reached to similar conclusion as that of the General. Take for instance, in a recent congressional hearing held in June of 2016 by House Foreign Relations committee headed by Congressman Ed Royce, Ambassador Mark Lagon, President of Freedoms House, gave a testimony, where he stated “… In November 2015, the EPRDF decided to expand the boundaries of the capital at the expense of farmers and communities living in the surrounding areas of the Oromia region. This decision was made without adequate consultation with affected communities and sparked widespread protests resulting in the arrests of tens of thousands, including “students, teachers, musicians, opposition politicians, health workers, and people who provided assistance or shelter to fleeing students. At least 400 have been killed by Ethiopian security forces; an unknown number remain in detention; and torture continues to be reported.5 Protests like these break out because citizens have no other ways to engage in the political system or express discontent, which increases instability….”

During the same testimony, Ambassador Mark Lagon added “… there cannot be peace and stability if the government restricts political space and suppresses legitimate dissent with force. And without peace, there can be no reliable access to food or health care or education. A country cannot free itself from dependence on foreign aid without strong and accountable governance. U.S. tax dollars will be wasted as long as Ethiopia lacks rule of law, pluralism, and respect in practice of the pluralism, and respect in practice of the rights of all. The United States would be far wiser to fund a more comprehensive approach to development. We should work to strengthen human rights in Ethiopia to enable a truly peaceful, prosperous, and more reliable security partner….”

In May of 2016, Mr. Adotei Akewi, Managing Director of Government relations of Amnesty International (AI) also wrote an article under the head heading the Wrong Way: The Ever Closing Political Space in Ethiopia. In that article , he advised those concerned, allies of the TPLF/ERPDF regime that “…supporting an oppressive regime for the sake of regional security will only further destabilize a region already ravaged by conflict, unclear borders, poverty and lack of respect for the rule of law, all in the pursuit of short term stability. The Ethiopian people deserve better than that…”

Does the international community in general, and the donor countries in particular understand the depth of the crisis facing Ethiopia under the minority regime? Do they know and understand the high stake and ramifications of the current trajectory of all around and deepening ethnic and other faultiness in Ethiopia for regional and global security? Ethiopia may implode, as Gen Tsadkan argues and predicts, unless there is a radical change of course towards a fundamental reconfiguration of the state towards a genuine constitutional democracy, rule of law, and fundamental liberties that are absent under the current TPLF/EPRDF regime. The current regime they so support in every way is leading Ethiopia towards a downwards trajectory of instability, possibly civil war, or even worse case scenarios as Dawit Giorgis, Executive Director of African Strategic and Security Studies , wrote under the heading Rwanda Genocide: Lessons for Ethiopians.

On the other hand it is time to ponder about what is going in the minds of the TPLF leaders , in the minds of their few henchmen in the rest of the so called EPRDF top leadership such as ANDM, OPDO, as well as the majority of Tigrayan elite allied with the ruling TPLF/EPRDF. Do they have the mind and hearts to heed such a clarion calls for a radical change made by the likes of General Tsadkan? Do they really think far beyond the expedient lure of glitters of temporal power and other vested interest that unchecked power brings to its holders? Are they going to think beyond themselves, in fact for the good of themselves too, for the sake of all Ethiopians, including Tigrayan people they claim to represent and that of posterity to live and prosper with a leveled playing field in a just, democracy, and free Ethiopia?

Given past track records, patterns of behavior, and that timeless adage of Lord Acton, Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely comes to mind. Not only does absolute power corrupts the body politic of the state and its machineries, but both mind and spirit of those at the helm and their cronies are afflicted with ossification which absolute power has a tendency to nurture, however, in reverse, i.e. retrograde. Hence a very doubtful scenario, whether the powers that be, those at the helm of the TPLF/EPRDF dictatorial regime, have both the political will and wisdom to change course, and change radically before too little too late. Yet, the crossroads options remain to be seen.

The narrative that Ethiopia, as a stable and reliable partner, under a minority dictatorship has come to its last steam. It is time for the International community and all national stakeholders to come to a sober acceptance of the brutal truth and face the glaring reality in Ethiopia. It is neither acceptable nor sustainable to do nothing when all the writings are on the wall. Ethiopia is in grave danger. Too little too late statements, after tragic scenarios unfold, is a recipe of cynics, bordering criminals. It is time for a change. More than due in changing the course of the country, and change radically in order to avert the current slide towards instability and chaos Ethiopia under the current TPLF/EPRDF regime appear to be heading.