http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/unprecedented-ethiopia-protests-far-from-over-analysts-20160810-2
Unprecedented Ethiopia protests far from over: analysts
2016-08-10 12:09
Members of the Ethiopian army patrol the streets of Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia, after recent clashes with protesters. (File, AFP)
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Protests across Ethiopia leave more than 12 dead
7 dead as Ethiopian police and protesters clash
10 killed in ethnic protests in northern Ethiopia
Addis Ababa - Regional protests that began last year in Ethiopia have
spread across the country, and despite successive crackdowns analysts
say dissatisfaction with the authoritarian government is driving ever
greater unrest.
Demonstrations began popping up in November 2015 in the Oromia region,
which surrounds the capital, due to a government plan to expand the
boundaries of Addis Ababa.
The region's Oromo people feared their farmland would be seized, and
though the authorities soon dropped the urban enlargement project and
brutally suppressed the protests, they badly misjudged the anger it
triggered.
Protests have since swept other parts of Oromia, and more recently to
the northern Amhara region, causing disquiet in the corridors of power
of a key US ally and crucial partner in east Africa's fight against
terrorism.
"Since it came to power in 1991, the regime has never witnessed such a
bad stretch... Ethiopia resembles a plane going through a zone of
extreme turbulence," independent Horn of Africa researcher Rene Lafort
told AFP.
Despite what he described as the "state of siege" imposed on the
Oromia region in recent weeks, the protests have refused to die down,
and demonstrators have been challenging government more and more
openly.
Minority rule
One rally was even held in Addis Ababa on Saturday, a rare event for
the seat of power of a nation ruled by a regime considered among the
most repressive in Africa.
More than 140 people were killed when security forces put down the
original Oromia land protests, shot or tortured to death, according to
rights groups.
A fresh crackdown over the weekend led to the deaths of almost 100
more, according to an Amnesty International toll, with live fire used
on the crowds.
"This crisis is systemic because it shakes the foundations of the
model of government put into place 25 years ago, which is
authoritarian and centralised," Lafort explained.
The protesters have different grievances but are united by their
disaffection with the country's leaders, who largely hail from the
northern Tigray region and represent less than 10 percent of the
population.
Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn heads the Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which won all the seats in
parliament in elections last year.
Although he comes from the minority Wolayta people, he is surrounded
in government by Tigreans, who also dominate the security forces and
positions of economic power.
Getachew Metaferia, professor of political science at Morgan State
University in the US, described the state as "controlled by an ethnic
minority imposing its will on the majority," a crucial factor in
understanding the protests.
More than 60% of the country's almost 100 million people are either
Amhara or Oromo.
"There is no fundamental discussion with the people, no dialogue...
the level of frustration is increasing. I don't think there will be a
return back to normal," the professor added.
The country's rulers have cultivated the skyrocketing growth and
rapidly improving health outcomes that have changed the face of a
nation whose famines weighed on the world's conscience in 1980s.
But their grip on civil liberties has tightened: Ethiopia ranked 142
of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' press freedom index
this year, and social media used to organise rallies is regularly
blocked by the authorities.
The use of anti-terror laws to jail opposition critics has also
provoked ire, combined with more local issues such as the targeting of
Amharan politicians campaigning for a referendum on a district
absorbed into Tigrean territory.
Reclaiming freedoms
The West has largely avoided direct criticism of the country's rights
record because Ethiopia is credited with beating back
Al-Qaeda-affiliated Shabaab militants in Somalia, but the protests put
its allies in an awkward spot.
"Ethiopia's leaders have lost the vision of Meles. They are showing
signs of nervousness and don't place trust in their own people," said
one European diplomat on condition of anonymity.
After toppling dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991, Meles Zenawi
ruled with an iron fist until he died in 2012, and Hailemariam took
over.
More used to its image as an oasis of calm in a troubled region, the
government is swift to blame foreign "terrorist groups" for the
unrest, usually pointing the finger at neighbouring Eritrea.
Hailemariam last Friday announced a ban on demonstrations which
"threaten national unity" and called on police to use all means at
their disposal to prevent them.
Merera Gudina, leader of the opposition Oromo People's Congress, said
the nebulous movements were not affiliated with traditional political
parties and were focused above all on claiming back freedoms the
government has long denied.
"We are nine months into this protest. I don't think it will stop," he
told AFP. "This is an intifada," he said, using a term which means
uprising.
Received on Wed Aug 10 2016 - 09:55:32 EDT