http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-08-11-analysis-the-ethiopian-model-is-breaking-but-its-not-too-late-to-fix-it/#.V6yA-I-cEaY
Analysis: The Ethiopian model is breaking, but it’s not too late to fix it
Simon Allison
Simon Allison
Simon Allison covers Africa for the Daily Maverick, having cut his
teeth reporting from Palestine, Somalia and revolutionary Egypt. He
loves news and politics, the more convoluted the better. Despite his
natural cynicism and occasionally despairing tone, he is an
Afro-optimist, and can’t wait to witness and chronicle the continent’s
swift development over the next few decades.
Africa
11 Aug 2016 03:23 (South Africa)
Photo: The Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopa, Hailemariam Desalegn arrives at the fourth EU-Africa Summit
of Heads of States at the European council headquarters in Brussels,
Belgium, 02 April 2014. EPA/JULIEN WARNAND
Dark clouds have long loomed over Ethiopia’s stunning development
story. Now, in the face of unprecedented protests, and the
government’s typically brutal response, those clouds threaten to turn
into a perfect storm – with chilling consequences. By SIMON ALLISON.
As much as Ethiopia deserves praise for its stunning economic growth,
which has lifted millions out of poverty, its record on civil and
political rights has always been poor. Dissent is simply not an
option, and countless journalists, activists and community organisers
have found themselves on the wrong side of the state – with brutal,
sometimes fatal consequences.
In public, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn says that building a
democratic culture takes time, but that Ethiopia is working on it. In
private, Ethiopian officials admit to the abuses, but they say that
unrestricted political rights would derail the state-building project.
They insist that unfettered freedoms are a western luxury; a luxury
that a country as large, diverse and historically divided as Ethiopia
simply cannot afford.
There is some merit to this argument. It is no coincidence that
Africa’s two most successful developmental states, Ethiopia and
Rwanda, are both tightly-controlled one party states. Perhaps a firm
hand and a coherent long term vision make it easier to implement
policy, distribute aid and maintain political stability (although this
is not always the answer, as the continent’s many failed dictatorships
illustrate).
Proponents of liberal democracy must also acknowledge that the western
model offers few examples, in Africa at least, where socio-economic
rights have been successfully delivered alongside basic freedoms.
“What good is freedom of speech to the hungry man?” the Indian
politician Piloo Mody once asked. Western democracies themselves were
almost all founded on what would be considered now to be gross human
rights abuses, such as the disenfranchisement of women, or the
enslavement of different race groups – abuses that dwarf the sins of
modern-day Ethiopia.
But here’s the catch: as Ethiopia’s economy slows, and the glaring
inequalities of its growth become more apparent, it’s becoming harder
and harder to keep a lid on that dissent. While it might have been
effective, Ethiopia’s authoritarian model of development is inherently
fragile – and those fragilities are being exposed by the recent spate
of anti-government protests. The unprecedented scale of these protests
means that, for once, the government can’t make the problem disappear,
no matter how ruthless its response.
The troubles began in November 2015, when affected communities began
to demonstrate against the government’s plan to expand Addis Ababa,
the capital, into surrounding farmlands. This tapped into wider
discontent among the Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group but also
its most marginalised, and solidarity marches broke out across the
region.
The protestors won, eventually – the expansion plans were cancelled –
but at an enormous cost. An estimated 400 people were killed, and
hundreds more imprisoned. This in turn fuelled more protests, and this
year tensions have remained high across Oromia.
More mass demonstrations broke out in early July, but this time from a
completely different source. A long-standing regional boundaries
dispute in Amhara catalysed local resentment against the government,
and huge rallies erupted in the region’s main cities, Gondar and Bahir
Dar. Anger was directed at the government but also at the political
dominance of another ethnic group, the Tigray, who occupy most senior
government positions. Solidarity rallies were held across Amhara,
Oromia and even in Addis Ababa.
The government responded the only way that it knows how: with lethal
force. Amnesty International estimates that nearly 100 people were
killed this weekend as security forces tried to disperse countrywide
protests. In Bahir Dar alone, the police shot live rounds into the
crowd, claiming 30 lives.
If the last nine months are anything to go by, the deaths will not
stem the dissent. If anything, the more people the government kills,
the louder and more widespread the protests seem to get.
For Ethiopia, the implications of this are deeply unsettling: the
state can no longer stifle opposition by force. The authoritarianism
which has underpinned the country’s development isn’t working any
more.
Ethiopia’s rulers are now faced with a stark choice. Double down on
the despotism, and risk a revolution – thereby undoing much of the
country’s economic growth (donors are already under intense pressure
to pull out). Or acknowledge that civil and political rights are not
just a luxury, but a necessary condition for sustainable, long-term
development – and reform the state accordingly.
The Ethiopian model of development may be buckling under the strain of
the recent protests, and the government’s brutal response. But the
model can, and must, be fixed. Before it’s too late. DM
Photo: The Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopa, Hailemariam Desalegn arrives at the fourth EU-Africa Summit
of Heads of States at the European council headquarters in Brussels,
Belgium, 02 April 2014. EPA/JULIEN WARNAND.
Simon Allison
Received on Thu Aug 11 2016 - 08:24:13 EDT