WHAT has been the worst mistake of Barack Obama’s presidency? Failing to plan for the day after intervening in Libya, says the president himself. Five years ago rebels backed by Western air strikes ousted Muammar Qaddafi, Libya’s dictator. But the West lost interest as the country stumbled on the path to democracy, then fell into civil war in 2014. Now Libya is divided, most notably between east and west, each with its own government, and home to three different branches of the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group.
Amid the chaos, thousands of migrants have used Libya as an embarkation point for the trip across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe. It is feared that terrorists are taking advantage of the lawlessness to plan attacks abroad.
So the West has stepped back in. America, Britain, France and Italy all have troops on the ground in Libya, and are increasingly being drawn into the fight against IS. With Western support, the UN is backing a government of national accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, the capital, and led by Fayez Seraj. But Libya’s many divisions are proving hard to mend.The GNA was meant to unify the country’s fighting forces, but it draws support mainly from militias in the west. The body has not been approved by a parliament in the east that is under the sway of a Libyan general, Khalifa Haftar. Backed by Egypt and the UAE, General Haftar commands forces aligned with the eastern government and looks increasingly like a dictator.
On August 1st America dipped its foot further into the morass by launching air strikes against IS fighters holed up in the coastal town of Sirte. The battle for the town is indicative of the complications facing the West. American air strikes have aided a force of militiamen mostly from Misrata, in the north-west, who are aligned with the GNA. But their loyalty is precarious. Fighters complain of being abandoned by the government, which was slow to call for American help and, according to diplomats, still has not asked for the easing of an international arms embargo. “If nothing changes, Seraj’s time will come,” a Misratan fighter told Reuters.
After two months of fighting, there are only a few hundred jihadists left in Sirte; this week the government captured a large convention hall complex in the city centre from IS. What follows its defeat may exacerbate divisions in the country. The Misratans say they will leave Sirte after the battle, but that is doubtful. Battlefield successes have emboldened Misratan leaders, who have hardened their stance against General Haftar playing any role in Libya’s future. Defeating him, not IS, should be the priority, say some Misratans.
Mr Haftar’s forces are in Benghazi, east of Sirte, fighting jihadists and the general’s more moderate opponents. Western special forces—the French, in particular—are also thought to be active in the east. On July 20th three French soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash near Benghazi. An Islamist-aligned group called the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) claimed credit for downing the helicopter. So tangled is the web of alliances in Libya that the BDB is backed by Misratan militias, which benefit from American air strikes.
The revelation that French soldiers are in Benghazi set off protests in western Libya, while America’s air strikes sparked criticism from Islamists in Tripoli. But much of the public’s anger is aimed at the GNA, which has struggled to establish its authority, even in the capital. It has mostly failed to restart public services or stabilise the collapsing economy. Often painted as a Western puppet, it is reluctant to ask for help. Some analysts fear that IS will further undermine the government by launching attacks in Tripoli. A victory in Sirte would at least give it a morale boost.
The West has papered over Libya’s divisions, first with the creation of the GNA and more recently with deals over oil production. Yet the country is almost broke. Libya’s output dropped to 300,000 barrels a day in July, from 1.6m at the start of 2011. Ibrahim Jathran, whose Petroleum Facilities Guard controls oil ports at Ras Lanuf, Sidra and Zueitina, says he wants to reopen facilities, some of which have been heavily damaged. But his loyalty to the GNA is fickle—he has sabotaged production before—and his efforts alone cannot guarantee the flow of oil. Mr Haftar’s forces and militias from Zintan have the ability to cut off pipelines further south. The national oil company is hoping to bring production up to 900,000 barrels a day by the end of the year. That is optimistic; yet another conflict, between Mr Jathran’s men and Mr Haftar’s seems more likely.
Many think federalism or decentralisation, whereby the oil money is split between regions, is the answer in Libya. Getting there is the hard part. The West, at least, seems more likely to stick around this time. America’s next president, to be chosen in November, looks likely to be Hillary Clinton, who argued for intervening in Libya in 2011 as secretary of state. Like Mr Obama, she too may hope to make up for the chaos that has followed.