http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/13/world/africa/ethiopia-protests.html?_r=1
Africa
‘A Generation Is Protesting’ in Ethiopia, Long a U.S. Ally
By JEFFREY GETTLEMANAUG. 12, 2016
Demonstrators demanding political change in Ethiopia have been met
with violent resistance by the government. Witnesses say that scores
of protesters have been fatally shot during clashes with police.
Is Ethiopia about to crack?
For the last decade, it has been one Africa’s most stable nations, a
solid Western ally with a fast-growing economy. But in recent months,
antigovernment protests have convulsed the country, spreading into
more and more areas. In the last week alone, thousands of people
stormed into the streets, demanding fundamental political change.
The government response, according to human rights groups, was
ruthless. Witnesses said that police officers shot and killed scores
of unarmed demonstrators. Videos circulating from protests thought to
be from late last year or earlier this year show security officers
whipping young people with sticks as they were forced to perform
handstands against a wall. The top United Nations human rights
official is now calling for a thorough investigation.
“It was always difficult holding this country together, and moving
forward, it will be even harder,” said Rashid Abdi, the Horn of Africa
project director for the International Crisis Group, a research group.
Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa, after Nigeria,
and its stability is cherished by the West. American military and
intelligence services work closely with the Ethiopians to combat
terrorist threats across the region, especially in Somalia, and few if
any countries in Africa receive as much Western aid.
Ethiopia’s economy has been expanding at an impressive clip. Its
infrastructure has improved drastically — there is even a new commuter
train in the capital, Addis Ababa. And its streets are typically
quiet, safe and clean. Though Ethiopia has hardly been a paragon of
democracy — human rights groups have constantly cited the government’s
repressiveness — opposition within the country had been limited, with
dissidents effectively silenced. Many have been exiled, jailed, killed
or driven to the far reaches of the desert.
But that may be changing.
“If you suffocate people and they don’t have any other options but to
protest, it breaks out,” said Seyoum Teshome, a university lecturer in
central Ethiopia. “The whole youth is protesting. A generation is
protesting.”
The complaints are many, covering everything from land use to the
governing coalition’s stranglehold on power. After a widely criticized
election last year, the governing party and its allies got the last
seat the opposition had held and now control 100 percent of the
Parliament. At the same time, tensions are rising along the border
with Eritrea; a battle along that jagged, disputed line claimed
hundreds of lives in June.
Analysts fear that separatist groups that had been more or less
vanquished in recent years, like the Oromo Liberation Front or the
Ogaden National Liberation Front, may try to exploit the turbulence
and rearm.
Several factors explain why bitter feelings, after years of simmering
beneath the surface, are exploding now.
The first is seemingly innocuous: smartphones.
Only in the last couple of years have large numbers of Ethiopians been
able to communicate using social media as cheaper smartphones became
common and internet service improved. Even when the government shuts
down access to Facebook and Twitter, as it frequently does, especially
during protests, many people are still able to communicate via
internet proxies that mask where they are. Several young Ethiopians
said this was how they gathered for protests.
Second, there is more solidarity between Oromos and Amharas,
Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups. Oromos and Amharas are not
natural allies. For eons, Amharas from Ethiopia’s predominantly
Christian highlands flourished in politics and business, exploiting
the Oromos, many of whom are Muslim and live in lowland areas.
But that is changing as well.
“We are on the way to coordinate under one umbrella,” said Mulatu
Gemechu, an Oromo leader.
The biggest protests have been in Amhara and Oromo areas. Many Amharas
and Oromos feel Ethiopia is unfairly dominated by members of the
Tigrayan ethnic group, which makes up about 6 percent of the
population and dominates the military, the intelligence services,
commerce and politics.
The third reason behind the unrest is the loss of Meles Zenawi.
Mr. Meles, a former rebel leader, was Ethiopia’s prime minister for 17
years, until his death from an undisclosed illness in 2012. He was
considered a tactical genius, a man who could see around corners.
Analysts say he was especially adept at detecting early signals of
discontent and using emissaries to massage and defang opponents.
“The current regime lacks that ground savvy,” Mr. Abdi, the conflict
analyst, said.
Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, was plucked from
relative obscurity to fill Mr. Meles’s shoes. Unlike Mr. Meles, who
came from the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, Mr. Hailemariam is a
southerner. Analysts say he does not have the trust of the
Tigrayan-controlled security services.
The result, many fear, is more bloodshed. The last time Ethiopia
experienced such turmoil was in 2005, after thousands protested over
what analysts have said appeared to be an election the government
bungled and then stole. In the ensuing crackdown, many protesters were
killed, though fewer than in recent months, and that period of unrest
passed relatively quickly.
Development experts have praised Ethiopia’s leaders for visionary
infrastructure planning, such as the new commuter train, and
measurable strides in fighting poverty. But clearly that has not
stopped the internal resentment of Ethiopia’s government from
intensifying. And it is taking a dangerous ethnic shape.
Last month, protesters in Gondar, an Amhara town, attacked businesses
owned by Tigrayans, and anti-Tigrayan hatred is becoming more common
in social media.
Analysts say the protests are putting the United States and other
Western allies in an awkward position. The American government has
used Ethiopia as a base for drone flights over neighboring Somalia,
though it recently said it closed that base.
While the West clearly wants to support democracy, it also does not
want its ally in an already volatile region to crumble.
“That,” Mr. Abdi said, “is a very tight rope to walk.”
Received on Fri Aug 12 2016 - 16:17:43 EDT