http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/19769/ethiopia-s-regime-prioritizes-power-over-reform-as-ethnic-protests-continue
Ethiopia’s Regime Prioritizes Power Over Reform as Ethnic Protests Continue
William Davison Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia—In Ethiopia’s two most populous ethnic regions,
anti-government rallies turned into a bloodbath in early August as
security forces again used live ammunition against protesters. In the
western part of Oromia, the largest of Ethiopia’s nine ethnically
based states, the town of Nekempte looked like a “war zone,” according
to a protester. An opposition party said almost 100 people were killed
and thousands arrested after demonstrations across the sprawling
Oromia region, which encircles the capital, Addis Ababa, and borders
Kenya in the south and South Sudan in the west. A day later in Bahir
Dar, the capital of Amhara state, Amnesty International said police
killed as many as 30 people. The government said a protest descended
into a riot. Historic Gondar city to the north also saw more
demonstrations, vandalism and repression.
The sustained discontent in Oromia, which began after unrest erupted
last November, presents a major challenge to the country’s government,
which came to power in 1991 when an insurgency led by the minority
Tigrayan ethnic group overthrew a military regime. Having been granted
autonomy in a federal system, the Oromo, who number around 35 million
as Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, are asserting their rights.
The Oromo’s demands have included the scrapping of a greater Addis
Ababa strategic plan that threatened Oromo farmers; the introduction
of Afaan Oromo as a federal government language; the release of
political prisoners; an end to police brutality; and complaints about
subservience to Tigrayans in the ruling coalition. Despite the January
cancellation of the master plan, the protests continued. And now they
have been compounded by vociferous opposition from the Amhara, the
country’s second-largest ethnic group, who wielded significant power
as rulers, administrators and landlords during Ethiopia’s imperial
past.
The Amhara claim parts of their territory were unfairly incorporated
into Tigray state during the post-1991 transition. That reflects
opposition to a system of ethnically defined federalism, which is
portrayed as divisive and facilitating rule by Tigrayans, who make up
6 percent of a population of around 100 million. During recent
demonstrations, protesters praised past Amhara emperors and replaced
the current federal flag with emblems representing previous unitary
constitutions as they also chanted pro-democracy slogans. Protests in
various towns have been ongoing this week in the region.
The four-party Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, or
EPRDF, has controlled politics since capturing state power in 1991.
Its parties represent Ethiopia’s main ethnic groups: the Oromo
People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National
Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic
Movement (SEPDM) and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
With allied parties, the coalition controls all federal parliament and
regional council seats, as well as managing rural areas through
farmers’ cells. The resilience and tactics of protesters will be key
to the demonstrations’ success, but most critical to how the situation
unfolds will be the EPRDF’s cohesion. Even sympathetic observers worry
about the bloc’s ability to respond adequately to popular demands.
Having been granted autonomy in a federal system, the Oromo, who
number around 35 million as Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, are
asserting their rights.
The current situation increases strains within the ruling coalition,
given the legitimacy crisis of its Oromo wing, whose corruption partly
led to rising tensions over highly sought-after land on the fringes of
booming Addis Ababa. There is also apparent disloyalty within the
ranks of the Amhara party, the ANDM, with elements being accused of
stoking protests and anti-Tigrayan violence in the city of Gondar. The
situation has led to a growing siege mentality within the Tigrayan
bloc, the TPLF, which is frequently cast as controlling an
authoritarian government.
After last year’s elections, when the only opposition federal lawmaker
lost his seat, Daniel Berhane, the founder of the Horn Affairs
website, which covers politics in the Horn of Africa, predicted unrest
in Ethiopia, as the space for legitimate opposition was all but
extinguished. He believes the problems in Gondar and elsewhere in
Amhara partly also reflect the contemporary weaknesses of both the
ANDM and the ruling EPRDF.
Though the Amhara party is a staunch supporter of federalism, it
struggled to sell its philosophy to the region’s old elite, Berhane
says. As with other EPRDF parties, its leadership seems to lack the
popular legitimacy and ideological unity to sway protesters. Amid this
discontent, some ambitious politicians are sensing a chance to assert
the ANDM’s influence within the ruling front at the expense of the
TPLF.
Such internal discord may partly be a result of the EPRDF increasing
its membership eight-fold to around six million people in the past
decade. That means there are many members who have not been inculcated
into its Marxist-Leninist-influenced doctrines on how collective
action and the power of the state will transform Ethiopia into a
prosperous, modern nation. Purges are necessary, but Berhane doubts
that they will achieve much more than officials rooting out rivals.
An ANDM insider thinks such divisions are overplayed, and that
protests stem from outsiders in the Ethiopian diaspora hijacking local
discontent. “The area is still underdeveloped in infrastructure, and
there is a huge good governance problem,” he says, referring to the
Gondar area, where the opposition has been most serious. The region is
prone to what he calls “anti-peace forces, both internally and
externally.”
Daniel and others think the unrest in Oromia is easier to respond to,
as the grievances are articulated within the country’s constitutional
framework. But that is countered by the Oromo People’s Democratic
Organization’s own internal problems and weakness; the party has
changed chairperson three times in six years. Contempt for the party
was made clear by Abay Tsehaye, a senior TPLF veteran and now policy
adviser to Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, when he blamed the
OPDO’s turmoil and poor administration for the crisis.
The government could respond to protesters’ demands and perhaps end
the crisis by deepening federalism, allowing more pluralism within
government and space for critical voices from the opposition, media
and civil society as part of a democratization process. But that’s
unlikely. The EPRDF has spent over two decades trying to become a
hegemonic force capable of implementing the state-led development
model of its chief ideologue, Meles Zenawi. While the absence of the
late prime minister from the TPLF is keenly felt in terms of strategic
and charismatic leadership, his ideas are still prominent.
In late August, party leaders from the EPRDF gathered to discuss the
crisis, but there was no new thinking on display. Instead, the
politburo promised to combat political extremism and enact reforms to
root out corruption. “The party that has from the very outset decided
to build a democratic and developmental government knows the existence
of incessant temptation among some people in a transition economy to
abuse of power for personal gains,” it said in a statement.
Nahusenay Belay, who is pursuing a doctorate in democratization in
Ethiopia at Addis Ababa University’s Institute of Federal Studies,
welcomes the Oromo demands, but is critical of what he calls the
“chauvinist, expansionist” Amhara agenda. He thinks the government
needs to suppress violent protests that he says threaten anarchy—and
then embark on an unprecedented program of dialogue, public
consultation and reform, including releasing political prisoners.
Yet with the opposition exiled, imprisoned or otherwise neutered,
there is a lack of potential partners. “They have to empower the local
opposition or anyone willing to participate in the democratic process
peacefully,” Belay says of the government. Despite his appreciation of
the EPRDF’s federalism and economic achievements, Nahusenay doubts
there is enough support within the front for much liberalization,
which would jeopardize its political monopoly. But like many, he sees
the dangers of the status quo: “If you close all the ventilation
mechanisms, at a certain point it will explode.”
William Davison is a freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Received on Wed Aug 31 2016 - 19:52:27 EDT