Are the clashes connected to Ethiopia’s Oromia crisis?
Since November 2015, Ethiopia has been dealing with large-scale
protests among members of the Oromo ethnic group, the country’s
majority ethnicity. These have resulted in a crackdown in which
hundreds of people have been killed, according to Human Rights Watch.
The Ethiopian government has said that Eritrea has backed the
protests, which were initially sparked by plans to expand the capital
Addis Ababathat would entail relocating Oromo farmer families.
People mourn the death of a man accused of protesting and shot by
Ethiopian forces in Yubdo Village in Ethiopia's Oromia region,
December 17, 2015. Ethiopia has blamed the Oromo protests partially on
Eritrea.ZACHARIAS ABUBEKER/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
But according to Mosley, the Oromia crisis is an internal affair and
has nothing to do with Ethiopia and Eritrea’s border disputes. “[The
Oromo protests] is the reaction from a certain educated strata of
Ethiopian society about being completely blocked out of negotiations
around the development planning,” says Mosley. “It’s not an Eritrean
plot, this is an Ethiopian ruling party failing.”
http://www.newsweek.com/why-eritrea-border-ethiopia-conflict-zone-469739?rx=us
WHY ERITREA’S BORDER WITH ETHIOPIA IS A CONFLICT ZONE
BY CONOR GAFFEY ON 6/13/16 AT 11:58 AM
Eritrea shares a 640-mile boundary with its Horn of Africa neighbor,
from whom it only gained independence in 1991. The two countries
fought a bloody two-year war over border boundaries between 1998 and
2000, since which bilateral relations have been characterized by a “no
war, no peace” situation.
Now, Eritrea has blamed Ethiopia for clashes in the Tsorona region,
about halfway along the border. The reported clashes have raised the
specter of conflict in a region where tension is always high.
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An Eritrean poses near a tank abandoned during the 1998-2000 border
war with Ethiopia in Shambuko Town, Eritrea, December 23, 2005. The
two countries have been in a "Cold War" scenario since the end of the
conflict.ED HARRIS/REUTERS
What’s Eritrea’s history with Ethiopia?
Until 1991, Eritrea was considered an autonomous region within
Ethiopia. The latter’s decision to attempt to annex the former in 1961
sparked a 30-year independence war. Against a much-larger and
better-equipped Ethiopian army, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front
won the war and toppled Ethiopian President Mengistu Haile Mariam,
with the assistance of Ethiopian rebels. Eritrea was recognized as an
independent state by the international community in 1993 following a
United Nations-backed referendum vote in favor of independence.
Why is the border a flashpoint?
A full-scale war broke out between Ethiopia and Eritrea in May 1998
and focused on the town of Badme, which both sides claimed belonged to
them. Eritrea was found to have triggered the war by attacking
Ethiopian troops around Badme, according to a 2005 ruling by the
Eritrea-Ethiopia Claims Commission, a body based in The Hague that was
established to deal with the conflict’s fallout. Over the next two
years, tens of thousands of soldiers were killed on both sides in a
bloody battle that achieved very little in terms of concrete boundary
changes.
The conflict ended in December 2000 after a peace accord known as the
Algiers Agreement was signed by both parties. One condition of the
agreement was the establishment of a boundary commission that in 2002
ruled that Badme was part of Eritrea. While both countries initially
accepted the ruling, Ethiopia later said it was dissatisfied with the
boundary and Badme continues to be occupied by Ethiopian troops.
“Eritrea and Ethiopia have essentially been in a Cold War since the
last war in 1998-2000,” says Ahmed Salim of political risk consultancy
Teneo Intelligence.
An Eritrean soldier looks through a spyhole on the frontline in Badme,
Eritrea, March 2, 2000. Tens of thousands of people died in the
two-year border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia.SS/CLH/REUTERS
What’s happened this time?
Following reports from residents living on the Ethiopian side of the
border of hearing heavy gunfire, Eritrea accused Ethiopia on Sunday of
infringing its territory. “The TPLF regime has... unleashed an attack
against Eritrea on the Tsorona Central Front,” Eritrea’s Information
Ministry said in a statement released overnight Sunday and reported by
Reuters. The TPLF refers to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, a
member of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition.
Besides the claim from the Eritrean government in the capital Asmara,
however, there is very little confirmed detail of what happened.
Ethiopia’s Information Minister Getachew Reda told the BBC he was not
aware of any fighting, and details coming out of Eritrea have been
scant, with the country having a notoriously closed media.
What could the clashes lead to?
If significant fighting has occurred, it is unlikely that either side
will want to escalate the conflict, according to Jason Mosley, a Horn
of Africa expert and associate fellow at Chatham House. “It’s not in
[Ethiopia’s] interest to precipitate the collapse of the Eritrean
state. The Eritreans are certainly not in a position militarily to
want to escalate to a full-scale conflict with Ethiopia,” says Mosley.
Eritrea is notorious for its conscription program. The compulsory
national service program, which can often last for decades, continues
to be indefinite, according to Amnesty International, despite the
government in Asmara pledging in 2014 to limit national service to 18
months. The program is an oft-cited reason given by migrants and
refugees fleeing the country—in 2015, Eritrea was the African country
with the highest number of people applying for asylum in Europe.
According to Mosley, “episodic reminders” of the “existential threat
from Ethiopia” are useful to the Eritrean government in justifying its
program. “Whatever the mechanics of what has or hasn’t happened... the
Eritrean state will probably try to portray this to the fullest extent
it can as evidence of a very aggressive Ethiopian posture,” says
Mosley.
Are the clashes connected to Ethiopia’s Oromia crisis?
Since November 2015, Ethiopia has been dealing with large-scale
protests among members of the Oromo ethnic group, the country’s
majority ethnicity. These have resulted in a crackdown in which
hundreds of people have been killed, according to Human Rights Watch.
The Ethiopian government has said that Eritrea has backed the
protests, which were initially sparked by plans to expand the capital
Addis Ababathat would entail relocating Oromo farmer families.
People mourn the death of a man accused of protesting and shot by
Ethiopian forces in Yubdo Village in Ethiopia's Oromia region,
December 17, 2015. Ethiopia has blamed the Oromo protests partially on
Eritrea.ZACHARIAS ABUBEKER/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
But according to Mosley, the Oromia crisis is an internal affair and
has nothing to do with Ethiopia and Eritrea’s border disputes. “[The
Oromo protests] is the reaction from a certain educated strata of
Ethiopian society about being completely blocked out of negotiations
around the development planning,” says Mosley. “It’s not an Eritrean
plot, this is an Ethiopian ruling party failing.”
Received on Tue Jun 14 2016 - 08:53:48 EDT