There are two months, the outgoing President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, was easily re-elected for a fourth term - a result unsurprisingly, although disputed. While the country is experiencing an unprecedented political crisis, poverty and unemployment reaching alarming and that economic omens levels darken, the leader seems nevertheless to continue its policy ostentatious.

And four. The President of Djibouti Ismail Omar Guelleh (IOG), in power since 1999, was re-elected on 8 April, for a term of five years. His victory is overwhelming that it is disputed: 86.68% of the vote in the first round of voting boycotted by part of the opposition and placed under the close supervision of the security forces. The main opposition candidate, Omar Elmi Khaireh, came in second with only 7.32% of the vote. Officially, the participation rate reached 68%.Yet voters seemed shun the polls and the electoral commission had decided even before the low participation, extend an hour the opening of polling stations. The delegation of the African Union who inspected the polling stations on election day uncovered irregularities in a quarter of the 124 polling stations visited (there were 456 open for election).

The international community is silent

This is not the first time qu'IOG manipulates the electorate: the constitutional reform adopted in April 2010 had enabled him to seek a third term - the duration of which was reduced from six to five. Today, the political context is close to implosion, with the most important events recorded in Djibouti since independence in 1977, and a large section of the population calling for the departure of President Guelleh. Who, in order to calm the situation, promised a few years ago: "In 2016, I will go. This time, I can swear. "Except that, over the five years that followed, meticulously organized the inability of the political transition to ensure its hold on power. And it is clear that the signs were multiplied. After a contested victory of his party, the UMP, legislative, Djibouti has again experienced a wave of protests that totally blocked the country.

In order to deceive the government and opposition had ratified in 2014 a framework agreement for the creation of an Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). This has however not been established. The coalition of seven opposition parties, the Union called for national salvation (USN), had made his claim lighthouse for participation in the elections. The climate between the regime and the opposition had then deteriorated; so that a state of emergency was declared in November 2015. Since then, more than a hundred activists or sympathizers were arrested USN. Human rights organizations also denounced the repression of all dissident voices; violence go up a gear when on December 21, the army fired live bullets at a peaceful rally in Balbala (district Djiboutian capital). The heavy fire on the demonstration killing at least 27 civilians, according to the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH). Not knowing where to turn, divided between a radical challenge and play the political game, the opposition is divided. The country is host to several military bases of foreign powers (US, France, Japan and soon China), the international community condemns these acts lip.

Economic growth (very) uneven

The economics, meanwhile, is far from convincing. If the country has a decent growth (6% in 2014, according to the World Bank), the population does not see color. Unemployment affects 60% of Djibouti, and 79.4% of them live below the relative poverty line. The government has failed to advance on fundamental issues: the fight against poverty, drought and debt. The priorities for the future (modernizing the administration, and strengthen education for ensuring a professional future at a very young population) are clearly neglected. Instead, public money is wasted on a policy of public works "megalomaniac" (pipeline with Ethiopia, airports, wind farms and geothermal power). The economic study of Coface in 2015 on Djibouti and warns against a high risk of debt distress; it attests to the will of IOG to leave his mark in the country, because he knows he can not remain in power forever - even if its strategy to stifle opposition in the territory has earned it a fourth term without too much difficulty.

This surge in public spending leads to a sharp increase in the budget deficit has been widening due to soaring imports of capital goods needed for these great works. Moreover, the conditions of the debt of the country has worsened significantly since China is the main source of funding for public investment projects. These non-concessional loans from China have aggravated the debt vulnerabilities, with a refund under ten years, with no grace period and an interest rate above 5%. The World Bank, former financier of the country restive at the apparent lack of due to the IOG policy, offered an interest rate of 2%, with repayment over thirty years, and a period of through several years to not repay principal and realized that once the project profitable. At this rate it is estimated that the external public debt would peak at 79% of GDP in 2017, according to the IMF. The direction the country alarm analysts. So only after artificially kept in power, it may well leave an ungovernable country to his successor.