A Somali soldier patrols a town captured from al Shabab. The Islamist militant group is trying to disrupt Somalia’s political transition in 2016.
Every week, The WorldPost asks an expert to shed light on a topic driving headlines around the world. This week, we speak with analyst Cedric Barnes about the international fight against the Somali Islamist militant group al Shabab.
After a quarter-century of anarchy and war, Somalia is inching forward with a political process meant to set the African nation on the path to stability.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pledged to hold elections, finalize the constitution and determine the number and location of Somalia’s federal states by 2016. Fierce political wrangling has accompanied each of these processes, and the election is now set to be decided by clan elders and regional representatives rather than by a popular vote.
Yet it is a significant moment for the country, 25 years after feuding warlords exploited a power vacuum left by the fall of military dictator Siad Barre.
Still, one group that emerged from the chaos, the al Qaeda-affiliated al Shabab, is determined to disrupt Somalia’s political transition.
While the African Union force in Somalia, AMISOM, has been pushing al Shabab from its significant territorial strongholds since 2011, the militant group has redoubled attacks in recent months, terrorizing the capital with suicide bombings, ambushing AMISOM bases and recapturing cities in southern Somalia.
At the same time, U.S. forces have intensified the military campaign against the group in Somalia, killing a regional intelligence head of al Shababin a strike last week. Last month, the U.S. targeted the group in a deadly commando raid and bombed a training camp which the Pentagon said left 150 fighters dead.
The WorldPost spoke to Cedric Barnes, the Horn of Africa project director for International Crisis Group, about the U.S. campaign against al Shabab and the critical months ahead for Somalia.
TOBIN JONES/AFP/Getty Images A father and his two sons watch a security operation in Mogadishu in 2013. Somalia will hold elections, but not by popular vote, later this year.
What’s behind the latest U.S. strikes on al Shabab?
I imagine it was a combination of reasons — partly operational, if perhaps opportunities arose based on intelligence on plans or threats, and partly due to the need to do something to stop al Shabab’s recent run of successes that was rather undermining AMISOM’s role and the whole project for stabilizing Somalia, which the international community has invested so much in.
After AMISOM pushed al Shabab out of the large parts of Somalia it controlled after 2011, there was no real stabilization plan, and that left a vacuum of sorts. Al Shabab, which was already quite a resilient organization, had time to recover. There have been a series of attacks on AMISOM bases in the last 12 months, and each one has increased in terms of ambition, the bounty they captured and the damage done against AMISOM’s reputation.
As well as these more conventional insurgent attacks, al Shabab has also engaged in a constant war of attrition, especially in urban areas, which shows that al Shabab is still present and can penetrate right to the heart of areas seen as secure, such as Somali government offices.
Somali and international officials may have declared that al Shabab had been defeated, a claim repeated by journalists, but that appears very much hollow and premature.