The Islamic State militant group claimed its first ever attack in Somalia earlier this week, though the claim has not been verified. Meanwhile, al-Shabab militants have stepped up their attacks as Somalia gears up for elections later this year.

The situation has led to growing frustrations among Somalia’s Western backers over the country’s slow progress in establishing its armed forces to bring security, after 25 years of chaos.
 
Somali authorities say they are countering a resurgence from al-Shabab rebels after years of progress in driving back the militants. Abdihakim Mohamoud Haji-Faqi, the country’s defense minister until 2014, attributes this to strategic changes on the part of the militant group.
 
“Al-Shabab has changed strategically their operations, from face-to-face fighting to targeting military bases, or targeting civilians, such as hotels, so they can terrorize the civilian population,” Haji-Faqi said.

That has included a series of suicide attacks in recent weeks, many of them targeting government figures in the capital, Mogadishu.

FILE - Security forces inspect the scene of a car bomb attack in the capital Mogadishu, Somalia, April 11, 2016. A car bomb exploded outside a restaurant packed with lunchtime customers, killing at least five people according to witnesses.

Analyst Cathy Haenlein of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute says al-Shabab has been extending its reach across east Africa as it has lost territory in Somalia.
 
“So we have seen it exert a much greater level of influence in Kenya for example, there are much higher levels of recruitment and fundraising going on in Kenya,” Haenlein said.
 
Peacekeepers’ effectivity questioned

Kenya recently marked the first anniversary of the Garissa university attack, when al-Shabab gunmen killed 148 people.  Kenya is one of the main contributors to the African Union peacekeeping force, known as AMISOM.
 
After initial territorial gains, Somali authorities say AMISOM forces have been largely confined to their barracks for the past year. Haenlein said this is in part due to certain suspicion surrounding the peacekeepers.
 
“It is having problems holding onto and establishing a presence in the territories that it has retaken.  In Somalia, especially, there is a suspicion about what the troop contributing countries’ interests are in the country, and that they may not be operating for the greater good of Somalia,” Haenlein said.

FILE - African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers patrol after fighting between insurgents and government soldiers erupted on the outskirts of Mogadishu, May 22, 2012. Frustrated with the force, the European Union recently cut monthly stipends it pays to AMISOM soldiers.

Somalia’s Western backers, including the United States, have been effectively paying the wages of Somali government troops.  The European Union recently cut the monthly stipend it pays to AMISOM soldiers.  Former defense minister Haji-Faqi says it is vital the support continues.
 
“They need support by the international community because the government financially is not in the position to pay their salaries and to arm their military.  And also to lift the arms embargo against the Somali national army,” Haji-Faqi said.
 
The United States has carried out a series of drone strikes against al-Shabab militants.  The Somali government has welcomed the intervention and warns of a growing threat in the run up to elections scheduled later this year.

Members of al-Shabab in Somalia who recently pledged allegiance to Islamic State are moving into the capital, Mogadishu, according to a senior intelligence analyst.

Colonel Abdullahi Ali Maow, a former national intelligence officer who now heads the new Mogadishu-based Somalia Institute for Security Studies, told VOA that some al-Shabab members are fleeing to the capital and to areas near the border with Kenya because they were overpowered in the region of Middle Juba. 

Maow said Mogadishu is attractive because, as a city of several million people, it is an easy place to blend in. 

This week, Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack in Somalia when an explosion targeted a convoy of African Union troops outside the capital.   

But AMISOM military spokesman Joseph Kibet told VOA that Islamic State may not have been behind that attack. 

Al-Shabab, however, did not claim responsibility for that attack, as they often do. 

An intelligence official who did not want to be identified by name told VOA that al-Shabab is hostile to former members who have pledged allegiance to Islamic State, creating a rift between the two factions. He predicted there may be instances of violence known to the two groups, but left unexplained to the general public. 

Colonel Maow, who told VOA the pro-Islamic State al-Shabab members are coming to Mogadishu, said the government plans to treat them the same way it treats other al-Shabab members. But he said the government is concerned that the Islamic State adherents will gain more followers. 

"They may not have power now," he said, "but it complicates the situation."

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