The Situation

A Saudi-led coalition of Persian Gulf countries since March 2015 has been fighting rebels who took over Yemen’s capital Sana’a and other cities two months earlier. Using air strikes and ground forces, the coalition has reduced the territory under the rebels’ control but so far has failed to dislodge them from the capital and other parts of northern Yemen. The conflict has its roots in complaints by the rebels of marginalization of their community, followers of the prominent Houthi family. Houthis are members of the Zaidi branch of Shiite Islam to which 42 percent of Yemen’s population belongs. Yemen had no tradition of Shiite-Sunni sectarianism, but outside powers have chosen sides along those lines, with Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia supporting uprooted President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi, a Sunni. Saudi Arabia’s rival, Shiite-majority Iran, has championed and aided the Houthis. Repeated efforts to resolve the conflict diplomatically, including month-long talks in Kuwait that ended in August, have failed. Since the Gulf-state intervention, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has increased its strongholds in Yemen. A spinoff of the original terrorist organization, it has targeted enemies in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Europe. It’s been estimated that at least 10,000 civilians have been killed in the fighting in Yemen. About 2 million people, out of a population of 28 million, have been displaced from their homes. Yemen was already the poorest country in the Middle East.

The Background

In 1904, the Ottoman and British empires established a frontier separating their spheres of influence in Yemen’s north and south, respectively. The north gained independence in 1918 with Zaidi imams, long the local rulers, serving as kings until a republican revolution in 1962. South Yemen became a state in 1967. The country was unified in 1990. The Houthis fought unsuccessful rebellions from 2004 to 2010. An Arab Spring revolt forced President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down in 2012. Under a U.S.- and Saudi-backed transition accord, Hadi replaced him, and UN-supported talks set the stage for a constitutional convention and new elections. The Houthis, however, rejected a federation plan that arose from those discussions because their northern strongholds were included in a district with limited resources and no access to the sea. Yemen isn’t a major oil producer but its location at the Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint in international shipping, makes it important for global energy trade.

The Argument

The Saudi-led coalition said its intervention was aimed at compelling the Houthis to return to the political discussions they earlier abandoned. It hasn’t worked yet. The Houthis rule out restoring Hadi to power, as the Saudis wish. They are allied with supporters of his predecessor, Saleh. The Saudis also justify military action as a response to aggression by Iran, which they paint as the Houthis’ master. Independent observers say that’s an exaggeration — that the Houthis receive aid from Iran but don’t dance to its tune. In any case, if the Arab intervention was meant to bring stability to Yemen in the long-term, it’s having the opposite effect in the short run. Human rights groups have documented repeated cases of bombings by the coalition of civilian targets including schools and hospitals. That’s provoked calls in the U.S. and Europe to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

The Reference Shelf

• An International Crisis Group paper “The Huthis: From Saada to Sanaa.”
• A Congressional Research Service report “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations.”
• A Council on Foreign Relations primer on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
• Gregory D. Johnsen’s book “The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda and America’s War in Arabia.”