Ethiopia: The Myth of a Stable and Reliable Partner Under the Minority TPLF
Regime
By Neamin Zeleke
“I want the superiority of one ethnic group to end” – Ethiopia’s Olympic
Silver medalist Feyisa Lilesa on Al Jazeera
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution
inevitable." - John F. Kennedy
In the first installment of this series, the myth of a strong military
under the TPLF/EPRDF regime was examined. This sequel article discusses the
manifold policies and measures taken by the ruling TPLF/EPRDF’s and their
consequences for peace and stability in Ethiopia and the sub region.
A myth promoting the minority TPLF regime as a reliable and stable partner
in the Horn of Africa has been circulating for years among Western policy
makers, think tank analysts and academics, especially in the US, UK, and
other western countries. This should not come as a surprise: since 9/11,
the primary preoccupation of western foreign and security policymakers has
been fighting global terrorism.
With the security and counter terrorism imperative becoming the primary
driver of foreign policy, values the West in general, America in particular,
claim to champion such as human rights, democracy, and freedom of the press
have long been relegated to the back burner. Ethiopia’s TPLF/EPRDF regime,
despite representing only 6% of Ethiopia’s 100 million population, has
benefited for many years from this development and reaped an important
windfall in the form of direct and indirect support from these countries
that has enabled it to extend its lease on state power and perpetuate its
neo-totalitarian minority domination and hegemonic rule until today. Aid
from the US and the West has continued despite the fact that the minority
regime has been committing a range of crimes against the people of Ethiopia
with impunity.
Reputable international rights groups, European parliamentarians and
American lawmakers have occasionally criticized the TPLF/EPRDF regime’s
severe human rights violations. The U.S. State Department’s annual reports
have documented and published the widespread abuse of Ethiopia’s people by
the minority regime. It has become obvious even among the TPLF/EPRDF’s
apologists within these countries’ foreign policy establishments that the
government has become highly repressive, authoritarian, and brutal and that
it has engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity. Cases include the
Ogaden, where hundreds of villages were burned, thousands executed
extra-judicially and hundreds of women were raped by the regime’s security
forces. In Gambella, in just a single day in 2003, over 400 Anuaks were
massacred. To date, not a single perpetrator has been held accountable.
Since the onset of protests ten months ago by the Oromo, the largest ethnic
group in Ethiopia, followed by more protests by the second largest ethnic
group, the Amhara, in Gondar and Gojam, the minority regime has intensified
its brutal repression in these regions to the point that it could be
characterized as ethnic cleansing. Hundreds of unarmed protesters have been
killed and tens of thousands thrown into concentration camps in remote
parts of the country under horrific conditions of torture, hard labor, and
disappearance. Many are feared to have been extra-judicially executed or
taken to the regime’s Tigrayan homeland to be held incommunicado in
dungeons that the TPLF has used since its guerilla days.
International media outlets have noted about the horror in Ethiopia as
follows: NY Times wrote “…..The government’s response, according to human
rights groups, was ruthless. Witnesses said that police officers shot and
killed scores of unarmed demonstrators. Videos circulating from protests
thought to be from late last year or earlier this year show security
officers whipping young people with sticks as they are forced to perform
handstands against a wall. The top United Nations
<
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_nations/index.html?inline=nyt-org>
human
rights official is now calling for a thorough investigation…..”1
The BBC has reported “…..Oromia and Amhara are the homelands of the
country's two biggest ethnic groups. New York-based Human Rights Watch says
that more than 400 people have been killed in clashes with the security
forces in Oromia, although the government disputes this figure….”2
Deutsche Welle had the following to say; “….The Ethiopian government
receives some 3.5 billion dollars (3 billion euros) annually from
international donors and has remained a key strategic partner of the West,
particularly the US and the EU, in the 'war against terror.' However,
analysts argue this financial support has been toughening the regime's
resolve to silence dissenting voices. The western approach of tiptoeing
around human right violations in the country and its continued support for
the regime has been stirring up anger among sections of the public…..”3
Despite the outcry by some foreign observers, most policymakers and
government officials of the US, UK, and other donor nations have, for the
most part, looked the other way. At best, they have expressed “deep
concern,” as they have often declared during the past 25 years of the
TPLF/EPRDF’s cruel tenure at the helm of the Ethiopian state. Tragically,
these policy makers, pundits, and analysts are blind to the cracks that are
widening day by day in Ethiopia’s society, state, and security apparatus,
including the defense forces, as a consequence.
These obvious trends taking place under the minority TPLF regime resulted,
in part, because of the blank check that Western powers, especially the
United States, wrote to the minority regime that they regarded as a partner
for stability and security in the Horn of Africa. Contrary to the erroneous
assumption on which that policy is based, Ethiopia under the minority TPLF
regime is a destabilizing force in the region. In fact, the TPLF ruling
clique is creating so much insecurity in every sphere of Ethiopian national
life that it has alienated the vast majority of the population.
Misrule, poor governance, rampant abuse of power, massive corruption and
rent seeking pervade the highest echelons of the civilian and military
leadership of the TPLF/EPRDF. Domination and hegemony of political and
economic life by a minority ethnic group to an extent never before known in
Ethiopia’s history and unbridled private appropriation of public state
resources to aggrandize ethnic and political cronies have become the norm.
These rampant violations of the Ethiopian people’s rights are the key
features of the Ethiopian state under the TPLF/EPRDF.
The minority regime has closed all meaningful avenues of peaceful dissent,
especially since the election of 2005, when the governing TPLF/EPRDF
fraudulently declared itself the winner. Other characteristics of the
TPLF/EPRDF regime that have widened the nation’s fault lines include:
1.
Bogus democracy, the closing of political space, organized and
systematic repression to paralyze and weaken the legal opposition, rigged
elections and courts used as tools to persecute civil society groups,
political dissidents and journalists. The absence of free media and the
denial of basic human rights.
1.
Suppression of religious freedom, especially the regime’s obdurate
attempts to control the internal affairs of the Orthodox Church and the
Muslim faithful. The ruthless crackdown on Ethiopian Muslims, who have
been demanding religious freedom in the most disciplined and exemplar
peaceful disobedience protest movement in recent times.
1.
Sham federalism, where regional autonomy exists only on paper and the
country is in reality dominated by the center. The imposition of TPLF
puppets on regional governments.
1.
Massive corruption and corrupt exploitation of state and public
resources by a single ethnic clique and its political cronies.
1.
Crimes against humanity, including mass murder and torture, committed
with impunity.
1.
An unpopular constitution, forced on Ethiopia’s people at gunpoint and
designed to serve and perpetuate the Tigray minority ruling elite
1.
Unfair and unequal distribution of resources, and the politicization of
aid distribution.
1.
Systematic denial of promotion and advancement opportunities to
non-Tigrayans in the military and civil service.
1.
Monopolization of economic opportunities by a small ethnic-based elite.
1.
Discredited “revolutionary democracy” economic policies secretly meant
to control people rather than deliver sustainable and equitable
development.
The resulting fault lines created by these practices divide Ethiopia across
several planes:
1.
Growing ethnic conflicts resulting from an apartheid-like system imposed
against the people’s will.
1.
Crackdowns on low intensity insurgencies and liberation movements in
nearly every part of the country that further alienate the people from the
regime.
1.
Resentment by the military’s lower ranks against the senior officers.
1.
An increase in secessionist sentiment in multiple ethnic regions.
1.
A growing and spreading acceptance of armed struggle as a solution to
the country’s problems.
1.
Islamic radicalism.
1.
Loss of moral authority by the Church.
1.
Tensions with neighboring countries.
1.
Economic desperation, abject poverty, and unemployment feeding
inequality.
1.
Disenfranchisement of the non-Tigrayan business class.
1.
Severe cracks and simmering contradictions within the ruling TPLF/EPRDF
on the one hand, and the increasing conflicts and contradictions of the
leadership with that of the mid-level and lower levels members of the
Amhara and Oromo junior partners of the dominant TPLF in the so-called
EPRDF.
These fault lines, which have been spreading for some time, are too big and
too many to ignore. It was naïve to expect that the status quo would
continue without a reaction that is opposite and more than equal.
The TPLF/Tigrayan grip on Ethiopia’s military, economy, society and critical
institutions of the state and the denial of non-Tigrayans any say in their
own country’s affairs have been facts of life for twenty-five years. When
one encounters Ethiopian visitors and new immigrants to the US and Europe,
the population’s preoccupation with this state of affairs is evident in the
disturbing overabundance of stories reflecting this chilling reality and the
extreme alienation and marginalization of non-Tigrayans in their nation’s
affairs.
According to several studies, over 85% of the military command structure is
comprised of TPLF members, while a similar percentage of the lower ranks
are non-Tigrayans. The lion’s share of the economy, according to some
studies as much as two-thirds, is owned and run by Tigrayan-controlled
corporations and parastatals, such as the Endowment for the Relief and
Rehabilitation of Tigray (“EFFORT”), a giant conglomerate owned and
operated by the TPLF leadership and its senior cadres. Most of the major
foreign-financed contracts and projects in the country are given without
competitive bidding to various concerns operating under the EFFORT
umbrella. METEC, a military-industrial complex that runs several
armaments and metal factories, including those taken over from the former
DERG/WEP regime, is controlled and managed almost entirely by former TPLF
fighters and has become a cash cow for retiring TPLF military officers.
Again, like EFFORT, the METEC Corporation has played a dominant role in the
economy by getting a significant portion of all no-bid government
contracts next
to EFFORT owned companies.
It is public knowledge that the senior leaders, generals, cadres of the
TPLF and their proxies own high rise buildings , shopping malls and other
ill-gotten assets in addition to many of them holding real estate and
liquid assets in foreign countries. These assets were not earned or
accumulated through hard work but from the unprecedented corruption and the
plunder of state resources at the expense of the Ethiopian people.
According to a study by the Oakland Institute, a California based think
tank, over 70% of the owners of property acquired in a recent land grab
bonanza in Ethiopia’s Gambella region are TPLF military officers and
civilian elites. The same sordid practice is going on in the Afar region,
where even salt production, traditionally the domain of the indigenous afars,
has been taken over by Tigrayans linked to the TPLF regime. Similar
stories of massive acquisition of public resources unjustly acquired
throughout Ethiopia by TPLF and Tigrayans affiliated with the regime are
widely circulated.
In order to further understand the all-pervasive domination of the economy
and the state apparatus, in every sense of the word, including the
unbridled plunder of public resources by Tigrayans elite affiliated with
the TPLF and the mafia like inner working of the TPLF and EPRDF, there are
two must read books, YeMeles Trufat, and Ye Meles Liqaqit . Authored in
Amharic language by Ermias Legesse, former Deputy Minister of
Communications, who now works for ESAT , these books are worth reading to
find plethora of data and evidence of a very disturbing phenomena in
today’s Ethiopia, i.e. an extremely greedy and short sighted TPLF
leadership, cadres, and Tigrayan elite affiliated with the TPLF engaged in
massive plunder, deception, corruption, and perpetual and obdurate
machinations to dominate everyone and everything in Ethiopia as if there
is no tomorrow.
Almost all prison officials and those who commit horrific torture of the
Oromo, Amhara and other political prisoners, accompanied by degrading
ethnic insults no less, are, for the most part, Tigrayans. The security
services, critical institutions and machineries of the state, foreign
affairs, are run by Tigrayans. This is a tragic and dangerous situation.
In a recent Amharic-language article, longtime analyst and commentator on
Ethiopian politics Fekade Shewakena, a former lecturer at Addis Ababa
University, making reference to a series of recent public statement by TPLF
bigwigs, Siyoum Mesfin, among others, a leading figure of the TPLF and
former Foreign Minister, known for telling big lies about the ruling of The
Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding the Ethio-Eritrea border
dispute-- has called on the Tigrayn ruling elite to have the courage to face
up to this grim reality of their own making and end the deception. Fekade
has called on the TPLF leaders to stop their dangerous instigation of
ethnic violence to create an excuse for continuing their repression against
the widespread dissent in the country.4
Professor Al Mariam, attorney and well-known blogger has made a similar
call in his most recent article.5
Most recently Olympic silver medalist, Feyisa Lilesa, who brought global
attention to Ethiopia’s political crisis with his defiant gesture at Rio
Olympics, stated, “I want the superiority of one ethnic group to end”.
Feyisa was talking about the daily life in Ethiopia that the TPLF’s leaders
and apologists consistently deny. Their complete denial of the naked reality
sometimes appears that the ruling clique is afflicted with cognitive
dissonance, a complete separation from reality which they desperately
utilize all forms of propaganda instruments to camouflage.
Several respected scholars and political analysts have also asked the
question: Where will this sense of marginalization, alienation, resentment,
and anger on the part of non-Tigrayan Ethiopians lead the country? Another
prominent Ethiopian who has worked in the international system, including
as UN Emergency relief coordinator in various failed African states, Dawit
Giorgis recently wrote, “As was the case in Rwanda decades ago, the
accumulated anger directed at this minority group is likely to explode and
result in a human catastrophe with serious implications on regional
stability,” underlining the depth of crisis in present day Ethiopia.6
Without a doubt, a seismic eruption is in the making in Ethiopia. Deep
anger, resentment, and even hatred are festering as a result of the
people’s despair and humiliation at the conditions described above. Such
conditions are deepening in manifold ways and their manifestations include
the growing numbers of Ethiopians joining armed resistance groups. The
coming reaction by so many sectors of Ethiopian society who have been
alienated and disenfranchised by the regime is clear to see.
In the first installment in this series of articles titled, “The Myth of a
Strong Army/Security under the TPLF/EPRDF Regime,”7 this writer predicted
that, under the apartheid-like conditions the TPLF has instituted, where
the Tigrayans are the movers and shakers of all levers of power in the
armed forces, the majority of the armed forces who are non-Tigrayns would
either join the armed resistance or simply melt away. Such incidents have
been observed since the onset of the Amhara protest in Gondar in the past
few months. Hundreds of army, federal police, and Special Forces have
joined the people’s struggle around Gondar, or have simply abandoned their
posts, as reported by credible media sources, including Ethiopian Satellite
Television and Radio (ESAT). Despite frequent speeches and televised
appearances by cynical senior TPLF cadres aimed at scaring the people of
Ethiopia into compliance, this trend will continue and surely become
widespread as the population continues to intensify its struggle for the
freedom, rights, and dignity denied to them by a brutal minority regime
that is bent on perpetuating its neo-totalitarian minority ethnic
domination and maintain state power by any and all means necessary, even at
the cost of a national break-up or civil war. The excesses of today’s
rulers in Ethiopia are too much for their Western allies to contend with.
It’s easier to just sweep them under the rug and pretend they don’t exist.
But they do exist, and, as a matter of fact, are increasing in magnitude.
The coming convergence of the above-described fault lines will undoubtedly
drive Ethiopia further toward instability, civil strife, and even worse
scenarios.
The stakes are too high for the US, UK, and other western allies of the
TPLF/EPRDF regime to just sit back and watch as a simmering volcanic
eruption rocks Ethiopia and spews national chaos and instability spread to
the sub-region. It is in the strategic interest of these countries,
including the international partnership on counter terrorism, that Ethiopia
has a stable, popular and democratic government elected by free, fair and
transparent process. Peace and stability in Ethiopia could only endure
under the rule of law and established rule of the games in economic and
other spheres that are fair and just for all Ethiopians in an open and
competitive economic and political system.
The United States, the UK, Canada and other donor nations and allies to the
minority regime must, therefore, look beyond their misguided and short-term
interest and support the establishment of an inclusive transitional
Ethiopian government that would pave the way toward a genuine
constitutional democratic political order and replace the sham democracy
and federalism that has masked the plunder and repression of an entire
country by a minority clique. This is the only realistic way to reverse
the downward trajectory of chaos, civil war, even worse nightmarish
scenarios that may engulf Ethiopia before it becomes “too little, too late”
to prevent. Only the determined, combined effort of Ethiopians who have a
realistic understanding of the current situation under the minority regime,
Ethiopia’s foreign friends and other interested stakeholders can stop it
before it is too late. A “brittle”, neo-totalitarian minority regime
rejected by the majority and facing so many internal fault lines that are
ever widening and deepening in magnitude cannot be a durable ally for
real peace, security, and stability in the volatile Horn of Africa that has
seen one too many failed states.
Received on Thu Sep 29 2016 - 09:00:25 EDT