http://sunnewsonline.com/why-african-union-must-act-now-over-ethiopia-egypt-crises/
Why African Union must act now over Ethiopia, Egypt crises
— 17th October 2016
•Cairo behind violent protests, says Addis Ababa
By Emma Emeozor
Overwhelmed by waves of bloody anti-government protests across the
country, the government of Ethiopia on Sunday, October 9, 2016,
declared a state of emergency for six months. The state of emergency,
the first time in 25 years, is to enable government to “deal with
anti-peace elements that have allied with foreign forces and are
jeopardising the peace and security of the country,” the Prime
Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said on the state-run Ethiopian
Broadcasting Corporation station.
For 11 months now, the Oromo ethnic group which is also the largest
ethnic group by population and land mass, has taken to street protests
to force government to listen to their grievances, and seek
international sympathy and support against a government they have
accused of brutality and insensitivity.
In justifying the declaration of a state of emergency, the Ethiopian
government said foreign forces are behind the protests. Egypt and
Eritrea were specifically mentioned as culpable countries. The
allegation is also coming at a time when Egypt and Ethiopia are locked
in conflict over the Nile River while, on the one hand, the relations
between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain frosty. Certainly, the relative
peace in the Horn of Africa is under threat and the African Union must
act now. There is the likelihood that with time, the aggrieved ethnic
groups may align forces against government the way Ethiopian rebels
aligned with Eritrean separatists against the Marxist Derg government
of Mengistu Haile Mariam. But can the Horn of Africa and the African
Union afford another civil war in Ethiopia? Now is the time to call
all actors, local and foreign interests, to order before Ethiopia
heads for another era of insurgency and the region thrown into
chaos.Certainly, the twist in the crisis (the alleged involvement of
Egypt and Eritrea) raises serious concerns not only for the Horn of
Africa but the African Union and the international community at large.
Mixed reactions overs the declaration
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Desalegn said the state of emergency was
declared because there has been “enormous” damage to property. “We put
our citizens’ safety first. Besides, we want to put an end to the
damage that is being carried out against infrastructure projects,
education institutions, health centres, administration and justice
buildings,” said Desalegn on the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation.
He added that, “The recent developments in Ethiopia have put the
integrity of the nation at risk. The state of emergency will not
breach basic human rights enshrined under the Ethiopian constitution
and won’t also affect diplomatic rights listed under the Vienna
Convention.”
But mixed reactions immediately trailed the declaration. While
government apologists justified the action, critics, particularly the
Oromo, opposed it. The Washington Post quoted Abiy Chelkeba, assistant
professor of law at Mekelle University, as saying, “There are
sufficient grounds to declare a state of emergency in Ethiopia.”
Chelkeba further buttresses his position: “The situation in many areas
across the Oromia region has become so severe that law enforcement
agencies themselves have become targets and were attacked with a high
intensity. Moreover, the constitutional order of the country has been
endangered. All in all, the value systems of the constitution, like a
respect for the national flag and adherence to the governance system,
are in danger.”
But the Oromo strongly disagreed. Editor of Opride, an online
publication for the Oromo people, Mohammed Ademo, expressed their
position. Washington-based CBC Radio quoted him as saying “this latest
state of emergency declaration gives security forces leeway without
incrimination.” Ademo spoke with The Current programme guest host Piya
Chattopadhyay.
“Security forces now have the right to arrest anyone without warrant,”
Ademo lamented. “They can shut down media. They have already cut the
Internet for the past 10 days. It just means that they can kill
without any question, and any accountability.” He said in the past 10
days, the situation has been “truly appalling.”
“I’ve heard from a mother who couldn’t take her sick child to a
hospital and her baby died. And she couldn’t even go rally the
neighbours to help her bury the body. She had to bury her dead baby
alone.” According to Ademo, people even fear venturing outside after
dark because they could be killed. “People are terrified.”
Major demands of the Oromos
The Oromo people’s protest is a result of 25 years of accumulated
grievances. The protest started in April 2014. But the recent
demonstrations witnessed the coming together of all Oromo groups after
elementary and secondary school students in the small town of Ginchi
(about 80 kilometres from the capital, Addis Ababa) began protesting
the privatisation and confiscation of a small soccer field and the
selling of a nearby forest known as Chilimoo. Meanwhile, the Oromo
have been demanding a stop to a master plan that aims to expand Addis
Ababa by 1.5 million hectares onto surrounding Oromo land and,
therefore, the eviction of Oromo farmers, a halt to land-grabbing,
corruption and violation of human rights. The Oromo also seek to
achieve self-determination and sovereignty by replacing the
government, dominated by the Tigrayan ethnic group, with a
multi-ethnic national government.
Ethiopia, Egypt fight over Nile River
The relations between Ethiopia and Egypt became frosty after Addis
Ababa planned to execute a $4.2 billion dam, 40 kilometres east of the
border with Sudan. The project, known as the Ethiopian Grand
Renaissance Dam, is billed to be completed in 2017. However, Egypt has
strongly opposed the project as it will divert the Blue Nile waters.
Records show that 86 per cent of Egypt’s water originates in Ethiopia.
Egypt says the dam project would reduce its water drastically and
paralyse socio-economic activities, an argument that Addis Ababa has
dismissed. Writing in the Japanese Times, Daniel Pipes, while
supporting the fears of Egypt, said, “Egypt stands out as having the
largest population at risk and being the country, other than Iraq and
Yemen, with the most existential hydrologic problem.” This is even as
Ethiopia insists that it has taken into consideration the interest of
Cairo. Addis Ababa said, “The river will be slightly diverted but will
then be able to follow its natural course.”
But even before Ethiopian thought of constructing the dam, there had
been long-standing disagreement over who controls the Nile River. The
river passes through 11 countries, with 90 per cent of its volume
coming from the highlands of Ethiopia. Colonial-era treaties
negotiated by the British gave Egypt and Sudan a majority share of the
river. However, seven other countries through which the river flows
have said the agreements were unjust and need to be torn up.
Precisely, 1929 and 1959 treaties gave Egypt the power to veto
projects on the Nile River. Going further, the treaties entitle Egypt
to 55.5 billion cubic metres of water per year. Most of the Nile’s
total flow is about 84 billion cubic metres. Ethiopia insists Egypt
must the relinquish power conferred on it by the treaties. A new deal
signed in 2010 by the Nile Basin countries allows them to work on
river projects without the prior agreement of Cairo. Expectedly, Egypt
did not sign the agreement. And here lies the dilemma.
Egypt’s clandestine plan to attack Ethiopia exposed?
Over time, diplomatic efforts to resolve the disagreement between the
two countries have ended up in hiccups. United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi
Arabia have intervened. A tripartite technical dialogue between Egypt,
Sudan and Ethiopia has, also, been held. Yet the problem has remained
unsolved due to mutual distrust as both parties are unable to walk a
‘win-win’ path. Egypt’s former President Mohammed Morsi was blunt when
he commented on the Nile River crisis. Indeed, he spoke the minds of
Egyptians. His words: “Egypt’s water security cannot be violated in
anyway . . . we are not calling for war, but we will never permit our
water security to be threatened.
“We have no objections to the development projects in the Nile Basin
states, but on condition that those projects do not affect our legal
and historical rights. If Egypt is the Nile’s gift, then the Nile is
gift to Egypt, the lives of Egyptians are connected around it . . . as
one great people. If it diminishes by one drop then our blood is the
alternative.”
The war songs of Egypt over Ethiopia’s project became an open matter
when in June 2013 Egyptian officials and politicians “were caught
unawares on state television suggesting military action or supporting
Ethiopian rebels to destabilise Ethiopia in an attempt to disrupt the
building of the dam,” a report said.
Ethiopian Embassy in Nigeria comments
Is Egypt behind violent protests in Ethiopia and what prospects are
there for amicable resolution of the Nile River crisis?, Daily Sun
asked the Ethiopian and Egyptian embassies in Nigeria respectively to
answer. Egypt Embassy did not respond. However, the Ethiopian Embassy,
through its Minister Councellor, Alemu Ayele, insisted that Eritrea
and Egypt were sponsoring the Oromo protesters.
Ayele gave reasons for the actions of Cairo and Asmara. According to
him, Eritrea habours the fear that landlocked Ethiopia may one day
invade its territory because of its (Eritrea) port. He also believes
Eritrea is not comfortable with the economic progress his country has
achieved. He said, for these and other reasons, Asmara is supporting
armed groups in Ethiopia. He cites the example of Ginbot 7, which is
operating from Eritrea. According to him, Asmara is funding and arming
the group.
On Egypt’s involvement, he said “A video released showed some
Egyptians in solidarity with the Oromo protesters.” He was quick to
describe the protesters in the video as “terrorists.” According to
him, Egypt’s state media aired a broadcast saying “the effort to
support anti-peace elements in Ethiopia is becoming fruitful.” But
why? Ayele said, this is because Egypt wants to secure its interest
on the Blue Nile: “If there is a weak government in Ethiopia, the
question of securing the Blue Nile would not be a headache for them.
If the attention of the Ethiopian government is distracted from
focusing on building the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam, it would give
better chance for Egypt, but this is a wrong calculation for them to
be supporting these groups. It is not a win-win approach at all,” he
said.
Received on Mon Oct 17 2016 - 12:19:35 EDT