http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/dan-simpson/2016/10/19/Three-more-crises-are-brewing/stories/201610190092
Dan Simpson: Three more international crises are brewing in Africa
Keystone countries in Africa may join the list of nations in chaos
October 19, 2016 12:00 AM
By Dan Simpson / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Three of Africa’s keystone countries — the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Ethiopia and South Africa — are showing signs of distress when
the world is already overloaded with crises and unwilling or unable to
come to their aid.
Unresolved crises include those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia,
South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. Haiti, parts of Nigeria,
Palestine and Zimbabwe are just this side of chaos.
The conflicting elements in the DRC are not rational. With a
population now standing at a staggering 80 million, it has been
governed abysmally since the 19th century by the Belgians, dictator
Mobutu Sese-Seko, dictator Laurent Kabila and now his son, Joseph
Kabila, elected but striving to stay in office beyond his
constitutional second term. I say, “governed abysmally” on the basis
of the country’s enormous wealth never having been applied to the
well-being of its population.
The DRC has minerals, including coltan, copper, cobalt, diamonds,
gold, silver, zinc and manganese, extensive commercial and
agricultural potential, ample rainfall, hydroelectric capacity
sufficient to light up the whole African continent, offshore oil and a
large, very bright and industrious population. I lived there for seven
years and have no doubt about what the Congolese could do if
well-governed.
Instead, Mr. Kabila Jr. is determined to stay in power, emulating his
thuggish predecessors and the self-described leaders of some
neighboring countries — Zimbabwe President Robert G. Mugabe probably
being the worst, but he is seriously challenged for “most appalling”
by South Sudan’s black-cowboy-hatted Salva Kiir. The crisis in the DRC
will come to a head in December, when Mr. Kabila is supposed to leave
office. The killing already has started. The Catholic Church is
attempting to mediate, but prospects are not good, particularly given
the DRC’s violent recent past, gauged to have claimed upward of 6
million victims.
The DRC has borders with 10 other countries, underlining the potential
for regional conflagration if it explodes again.
Ethiopia is another kind of problem, although its size and location
and the fact that it hosts the headquarters of the African Union make
stability there — based as it must be on the consent of the governed —
as essential as peace and quiet in the DRC and South Africa. Ethiopia
borders Eritrea, with which it has been scrapping for decades, Sudan,
South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti and Kenya.
Ethiopia’s leaders have brought the country a fine record of economic
development, showing growth of 10.9 percent over a period of 10 years.
But, while they have brought a rising standard of living to Ethiopia’s
94 million people, they have shown themselves to be hostile to
democratic government. The last elections gave all the seats in
parliament to the governing party.
The problem in Ethiopia appears to be that, based on previous history,
government remains largely in the hands of the minority Tigrayans, an
estimated 6 percent of the population. This is resented by the Amhara,
the tribe of the old emperor, Haile Selassie, which brought Ethiopia
its language, Amharic, and constitutes an estimated 27 percent of the
population. Tigrayan pre-eminence is also resented by the Oromo, a
tribe with 34 percent of the population. Their acquiescence used to be
assured by economic progress, but that deal isn’t holding anymore in a
time of social media.
In other words, the natives are restless and rioting in the streets.
The Tigrayans are going to have to give. They so far have been
prepared to use violence to maintain their position.
South Africa is the most serious of the three pending African crises,
largely because the stakes are so high for Africa and the world.
It is, and is likely to remain, the locomotive that pulls the African
continent in terms of economic strength and political leadership. The
world recognizes its importance by designating it a BRICS emerging
country, ranking it with Brazil, Russia, India and China, whether it
deserves to be on that list or not based on its economic performance.
South Africa faced an enormous problem when it made the transition
from apartheid to majority rule in 1994. The country’s great wealth
was largely in the hands of its white minority, and political power
passed into the hands of its overwhelming majority of Africans,
“Coloreds” and Asians, creating an inherently unstable situation that
needed to be remedied to achieve long-term stability, peace and
growth.
The country has muddled along reasonably well, led, first, by Nelson
Mandela as president, and then less well by Thabo Mbeki, and now, by a
crude, thuggish crook, Jacob Zuma. Most South Africans have done
better, but some, including Mr. Zuma, have simply passed into the
wealthy elite category formerly occupied by the whites under
apartheid. The African National Congress, the principal party that led
South Africa to majority rule, is still on top. It is, however, being
increasingly challenged for power by a more multiracial party and a
much more radical party.
To stay on top and govern well — both critical objectives for South
Africans and for Africans in general — the ANC needs to pull up its
socks, cleanse itself of corruption and toss out the assumption that
it will rule forever whatever its leaders do to regain the trust of
South Africans of all ethnicities.
All of these objectives — in the DRC, Ethiopia and South Africa — are
achievable. Washington should counsel the leaders of these countries
accordingly, in the interests of both Africa and America.
Dan Simpson, a former U.S. ambassador, is a Post-Gazette associate
editor (dsimpson_at_post-gazette.com, 412-263-1976).
Received on Wed Oct 19 2016 - 21:26:40 EDT