From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Apr 08 2009 - 12:52:49 EDT
Somali Peace Negotiations Continue With Hard Line Islamic Insurgents
By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C
08 April 2009
Ongoing negotiations between President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's
government and hard line Islamic insurgent groups continue in the Somali
capital, Mogadishu today (Wednesday). The talks aimed at bringing the
Islamic hardliners into government are reportedly going on smoothly despite
the refusal of both parties to divulge the extent of the discussions.
Political observers believe escalated violence in Somalia could
significantly be reduced once Islamic hard line insurgent groups join the
new government. But many Somalis say it would be next to impossible for
al-Shabaab, with reported links to al-Qaeda, to join the new government
after refusing to recognize it.
Political analyst Abdullahi Ali tells reporter Peter Clottey that Mogadishu
has a hard task in getting the hard line Islamic insurgents to join the
government.
"What has happened in the recent Arab summit in Qatar is that the elected
president of Somalia was told to cooperate with the opposition that is in
the form of armed groups in Somalia. One of the people who is involved in
that is Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awey (is on a U.S. list of terrorism suspects)
who is based in Asmara and who was previously in the same group with Sheikh
Sharif until they broke up. But what is challenging here is not only are
there many struggles in Somalia which are outside the two ARS'S (Alliance
for the Re-Liberation of Somalia), the biggest obstacle will be how they are
going to share power considering the nature of the power itself," Ali noted.
He said personal differences between the current president and his former
ally would make it impossible for the two sides to work under the same
government.
"Considering that Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awey thinks that President Sheikh
Ahmed is more junior to him and that he (president) shouldn't be more senior
to him in government. So, this is a question of a power struggle which will
start within Mogadishu. I also hear that Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awey would be
going to Mogadishu, so let's see what will happen in the next few weeks," he
said.
Ali said the new administration has a Herculean task in its efforts to
restore peace to the country after at least 18 years of protracted violence.
"What people have to understand is that there is not only al-Shabaab, there
is also Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca and there are a number of armed wings which are
involved in armed struggles in Somalia, which are outside al-Shabaab.
Bringing them all on board is going to be quite difficult task for the
government to tackle. But I think if they try diplomacy and other means they
may be also to see eye to eye to probably share power and in a way that is
befitting," Ali pointed out.
He said it would be challenging for the government to negotiate with the
hard line Islamic insurgents since they feel they are stronger than the
government.
"But I do think it would be very difficult the insurgents to accept the
formal government which contains over 550 members of parliament which is
invariably so weak, and further more how are they going to share power
considering that the current government doesn't have any constituency? So,
it's quite a big challenge for the government to go deep into negotiations
with very strong armed groups. And you know, you normally negotiate from a
point of strength and they (Islamists) think they are more powerful than the
government and so why should they negotiate with the government?" he asked.
Ali said the current government's lack of strength would go a long way to
weaken its efforts at restoring peace and security to the capital, Mogadishu
and the entire country.
"The government doesn't have any strength it is a very weak government and
not only is it weak, but it is technically weak because its composition is a
remnant of former President Abdullahi Yusuf's government. So, it is the
retackling of the old people who are there practically they are not changing
because it is just a matter of changing the heads. In fact it is worse now
because now you have 550 members of parliament who do not have any
constituency. So, it is a mess that way and they do not have skills to
negotiate with their foes on the ground and they don't have the fire power
intellectually and militarily to challenge the opposition as it is now," Ali
pointed out.
Ordinary Somalis have welcomed the new administration's efforts in
encouraging the hard line insurgent groups to join the government. The
efforts are aimed at restoring peace and security to the capital, Mogadishu
and other areas of the country after at least 18 years without an effective
government since the overthrow of former President Muhammad Siad Barre in
1994.
Described by Washington as a terrorist organization with links to Al-Qaeda,
al-Shabaab has refused to recognize President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's
government vowing to use violence to eventually take over the country. It
accuses the new administration of being un-Islamic despite the fact that the
current President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is an Islamist leader.
Al-Shabaab now controls large swathes of territory in the south and centre
of Somalia where they imposed the sharia law.
The group also promised to continue with its attacks on Africa Union
peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) in the country. Al-Shabaab gained support as
one of many groups waging war against Ethiopian troops who had been propping
up the previous government for the last two years. The Ethiopian withdrawal
in January placated some Somalis, but al-Shabaab has now turned its fire on
the African peacekeeping mission and the new government. Regional diplomats
hope the inclusion of many moderate Islamists in the government will provide
a new political dynamic that may marginalize hardliners like al-Shabaab.
Somalis, who are traditionally moderate Muslims, say al-Shabaab leaders
normally bring security to areas under their control, but many resent their
hard line practices. The group is viewed as the main obstacle to President
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's new government seeking to bring peace and
central rule to the Horn of Africa nation, in the 15th such attempt
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