From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue May 19 2009 - 14:37:18 EDT
Al-jazzera video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24uH75GQsjk&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eundispatch%2Ecom%2Fnode%2F8260&feature=player_embedded
http://www.undispatch.com/node/8260
Ethiopia Back in Somalia? John Boonstra - May 19, 2009 - 1:29pm
Reports are emerging that Ethiopian troops have incurred (again) on
Ethiopian territory. If the rumors are true -- and I don't doubt that it's
hard to know for certain in this ambiguous border area -- then it goes
without saying that an(other) Ethiopian invasion of Somalia would be even
worse for the country's prospects than a premature UN peacekeeping mission
(which, fortunately, still does not seem popular in the Security Council;
even the countries that are now willing to actually provide some troops are
urging restraint).
I see a number of possibilities here. Ethiopian troops might not actually be
in Somalia -- or, more likely, at least not *invading*. Ethiopia, naturally,
denies the reports. Under this scenario, either Somali observers would have
to have been over-eager to spot Ethiopian soldiers (possible, but a
stretch), or the Somali state media has some interest in raising the
possibility of Ethiopian invasion. This would be curious, because while
practically any Somali political group could attempt to stoke its popularity
by calling out the much-disliked Ethiopian military, this kind of
scaremongering tactic seems to befit the al-Shabab militants more than it
does the Somali government. Not even the presence of foreign peacekeepers
would galvanize the extremist al-Shabab cause than a renewed war with
Ethiopia.
More probably, however, some Ethiopian troops *have* flitted across the
border into Somalia. Remember -- the peace deal under which the Ethiopians
withdrew from their two-year occupation stipulated that they could return if
they perceived a relevant threat. With al-Shabab forces recently advancing
further in Somalia, the point at which Ethiopia deems it necessary to launch
another full-scale invasion might be nearing (even an African Union official
said he "would not be overly surprised" if this were to happen).
This reading -- that Ethiopian movement is in response to a growing
al-Shabab threat -- probably makes the most sense, but we shouldn't forget
another player in the region: Eritrea. If Eritrea is indeed funneling arms
to al-Shabab, Ethiopia could be acting out of agitation with its neighbor's
continued interference. And in this light, the Somali state media attention
could be a not-so-subtle message to Eritrea: quit it, or a bigger fish might
get involved.
That, or it's just big news. Check out this Al-Jazeera video for more good
questions, interesting analysis, and heated debate from all sides.
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