From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Mon Jun 22 2009 - 15:10:12 EDT
Q+A-Can north and south Sudan reach a deal in Washington?
Mon Jun 22, 2009 1:13pm GMT
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, 22 June (Reuters) - Former foes from Sudan's north-south civil war
are due to meet in Washington on Tuesday to try to pump new life into their
troubled peace deal.
The conference, organised by the U.S. envoy to Sudan, could provide a chance
for north and south Sudan to settle disputes over the roll-out of the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) -- disputes that if left unresolved
could drag Africa's biggest country and the surrounding region back into
conflict.
But time for settlements is running out ahead of a number of deadlines,
including a ruling on a disputed oil region in July, national elections and
a referendum on southern secession.
Q: HOW IMPORTANT IS THE SUMMIT?
Any return to civil war in Sudan would have a disastrous effect on the
country, its oil industry -- which involves Total of France, CNPC of China,
Petronas of Malaysia and other leading operators -- and surrounding states.
Sudan's two-decade civil war between its Muslim north and its mostly
Christian south dwarfed the more prominent Darfur conflict in terms of
bloodshed and regional impact.
Two million people died and 4 million fled their homes between 1983 and 2005
as north and south Sudan battled out differences in ideology, ethnicity and
religion.
The CPA set up an interim period in Sudan, with a north-south coalition
government and the sharing of oil wealth. But that interim period ends in 18
months with the southern referendum and analysts say Sudan's government is
far from prepared for how to handle what comes next.
The summit will achieve a lot if it can persuade northern and southern
leaders to meet halfway over their disputes, or to at least lay out how they
are planning to deal with flashpoints.
Q: WHO WILL ATTEND?
One of the most important things about the meeting is its high-profile
venue, Washington, as well as the prominence of its participants.
Many in Sudan feel the international community has neglected the north-south
conflict, focusing its attention and funding instead on the separate
fighting in Darfur.
The conference -- called by U.S. Sudan envoy Scott Gration, who reports
directly to U.S. President Barack Obama -- pushes the issue back up the
global agenda.
The delegation from north Sudan's dominant National Congress Party (NCP) is
led by Ghazi Salaheddin, a powerful adviser to President Omar Hassan
al-Bashir. The south's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) is
represented by deputy chairman Malik Agar.
Other scheduled attendees include China's Sudan envoy Liu Guijin and
representatives of the countries and bodies that witnessed the signing of
the CPA, including the United Nations, the Arab League, Britain, Italy and
Egypt.
Q: WHAT ARE THE MAIN FLASHPOINTS?
* Abyei -- Both north and south Sudan claim large parts of the central
region that includes oilfields and a key pipeline and their troops have
clashed there since the 2005 deal. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The
Hague is due to rule on the dispute in July. It will be next to impossible
to find an arrangement that pleases both sides.
* Elections -- The SPLM is deeply unhappy about the arrangements for
February's elections. It says a census under-counted the number of
southerners and is demanding a re-drawing of constituencies. Further delays,
and even boycotts by some parties, remain a possibility.
* Southern secession -- The biggest potential flashpoint is the vote on
southern independence in January 2011. Most commentators expect southerners
to choose secession. But there is next to no activity within Sudanese
government or U.N. circles to prepare the country for such a traumatic
breakup. The opportunities for conflict are legion if Sudan sleepwalks its
way into separation, not least over control of oilfields and the land rights
of heavily armed tribal groups who regularly move over the border.
Q: WHAT IS THE CHANCE OF SUCCESS?
The Washington summit could be seen as a test of what appears to be a more
open approach to Sudan's government from the Obama administration.
The Sudanese delegations will be hoping for more support and funding from
the West for expensive parts of the peace deal, such as the election. The
United States and other governments at the talks will be looking for signs
that Sudan has plans to get through the next 18 months until the referendum,
and to secure some sort of stability afterwards.
But any clear settlements will still be difficult to secure. Sudan's
politicians are masters at delaying difficult decisions by endlessly
stretching out negotiating processes and meetings. And many efforts to solve
issues such as Abyei have failed in the past, simply because northerners and
southerners will not budge an inch over what they see as their border.
(Additional reporting by Skye Wheeler in Juba; Editing by Alison Williams)
C Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
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