From: Biniam Haile \(SWE\) (eritrea.lave@comhem.se)
Date: Tue Jun 23 2009 - 15:21:17 EDT
Protect borders but forget military adventures in Somalia
Tuesday, 23rd June 2009
David Ochami, East Standard
As Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) totters on the brink
of collapse from the combined assault of two Islamist militias, Al
Shabaab and Hizbul Islami, Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula has warned
Islamists and their purported patrons, Eritrea.
Late May, in the company of TFG Prime Minister Omar Shermaake, he said:
"Kenya will do everything within its ability to protect its vital
interests in Somalia" and claimed Eritrea's "activities in the region"
were behind the insurgency in Somalia, then called on the United Nations
Security Council to "censure and sanction Eritrea".
Wetangula's attacks on Asmara ignited a diplomatic row with Eritrea's
Information Minister Ali Abdu saying they are "words put in his mouth by
his masters", in reference to Ethiopia and the United States, who the
Eritreans accuse of using Kenya to advance their goals in Somalia.
Wetangula alleges everything he says on Somalia represents "the position
of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development."
At the weekend, Sheikh Aden Muhamad Madobe, Speaker of the TFG's
Parliament, requested Kenya and other neighbouring countries to deploy
military forces to rescue the TFG. This followed weekend talks between
Shermaake and Wetangula in which the Foreign Minister said: "Kenya will
not sit by and allow the situation in Somalia to deteriorate." This was
yet another loaded speech based on Wetangula's growing belief that time
has come for Kenya to engage in Somalia militarily, a triumphalist
belief that seems to lack consensus in Government.
Dangerous Triumphalism
This belief system began with the abduction of Italian nuns from El Wak
last September when Kenya deployed three military battalions. The idea,
according to Internal Security Minister George Saitoti - not his Defence
colleague Mohamed Yusuf Haji - was to secure the hostages, by force if
necessary. Al Shabaab denied holding the hostages and threatened to
attack Kenya if Saitoti's threat was enforced.
Now, Sheikh Hassan Yakub, an Al Shabaab spokesman in Kismayu has
promised to "destroy the tall glass buildings in Nairobi" through
suicide missions if Kenya attacks the militia.
Theoretically, deploying troops on the border after repeated incursions
by insurgents deters future attacks. and the influx of armed men and
refugees when the TFG finally capitulates. Yet without reliable
intelligence to act on, and with the benefit of Ethiopia's recent
invasion and occupation of Somalia, an invasion of Somalia to "protect
vital interests", free hostages or establish a so-called security zone
in the country's lower Juba region, is suicidal. Unfortunately, this
inclination, based on misplaced confidence in Kenya's untested armed
forces and the prodding of treacherous Ethiopia appears to inform
current decisions on Somalia at the Department of Defence and Internal
Security Ministry.
It is easy to rationalise a militaristic attitude towards Somalia on the
grounds it might be the only remedy for Kenya's fatigue with Somalia's
intractable conflict and that doing so will deter the Islamist threat
gathering on the eastern frontier. But deciding to go to war requires
more than a strategic military superiority. We must not underestimate
the capacity for Somalis to bring the war to us through terror and other
asymmetrical means as threatened by Yakub. Besides the huge economic and
military risks involved, our political divisions cannot guarantee unity
of purpose for these military endeavours.
In November, spokesman Mukhtar Ali Robow claimed Al Shabaab has an
extensive presence in Kenya, a claim that tallies with French
intelligence assessments that Somalia's Islamist groups have established
an economic and intelligence infrastructure here. Out of corruption and
for its functional economy, amid lax intelligence, Kenya is a magnet for
Somalia's plotters - Islamist and secular - to raise and launder money
for political and insurgent activities at home.
To eradicate Al Shabaab in Somalia, we ought to fight its structures in
Kenyan cities, border regions and security and political system, not
dream up militarism fantasies. The desire to co-own Ethiopia's failed
policy on Somalia is an invitation without motives or exit strategies
that puts Kenya in the crosshairs of international terrorists and
militants.
The writer is a senior reporter with The Standard Group.
http://www.eastandard.net/InsidePage.php?id=1144017637
<http://www.eastandard.net/InsidePage.php?id=1144017637&cid=15> &cid=15&
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