From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Thu Jan 21 2010 - 17:14:14 EST
Somalia: Al Shabaab Threatens Kenya
Stratfor Today » January 21, 2010 | 2131 GMT
Somali militant Islamist group al Shabaab issued a pair of warnings to
the Kenyan government Jan. 21. One warned against a Kenyan incursion
into southern Somalia, and the other threatened an invasion of Kenya
that would reach all the way to the capital city of Nairobi. While al
Shabaab regularly warns of an impending Kenyan attack on Somalia and
frequently threatens to invade Kenya itself, the specific threat
against Nairobi marks an escalation in rhetoric. However, it is
unlikely al Shabaab will attack Nairobi; such an action would
jeopardize the group’s ability to use the Kenyan capital as a vital
hub in fundraising, recruiting and intelligence-gathering.
Analysis
Sheikh Mohammed Arab, the al Shabaab-appointed governor of the
southern Somali town of Dobley, claimed Jan. 21 that Kenya currently
has 1,500 troops conducting military maneuvers on the border and
warned the Kenyan government against invading. On the same day, a
posting on an al Shabaab Web site threatened that the Islamist group
would invade Kenya, specifically stating that its forces would reach
Nairobi.
Al Shabaab regularly threatens to invade Kenya due to the East African
nation’s support for the West-backed Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) currently in control of large portions of the Somali capital of
Mogadishu, which al Shabaab aims to recapture. The statements come
amid a week filled with tension between Kenya’s government and the
substantial Somali population residing in its country. The recent
tension was sparked by a Jan. 15 riot between Christians and Muslims
in Nairobi, wherein Somali protesters reportedly waved al Shabaab
flags in the air. The riot began after police attempted to crack down
on a Muslim demonstration protesting the arrest of radical Jamaican
Islamist cleric Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal, who had entered Kenya
illegally to preach.
Strategic considerations aside, it is unlikely that al Shabaab, a
force made up of approximately 3,000 fighters, would be capable of an
all-out invasion of Kenya that would strike at the country’s very
core. Rather, al Shabaab’s only option in fomenting instability in
Nairobi would be to utilize its agents residing in the capital (who
use the Somali community congregated predominately in the neighborhood
of Eastleigh as cover) to set off car bombs, conduct suicide missions
and perform other acts of terrorism — things with which the Islamist
group has had much practice during its insurgency in Somalia. But even
this option would be difficult for al Shabaab to pull off
successfully.
However, it is unlikely al Shabaab has the strategic intent to attack
Nairobi because it would be akin to biting the hand that feeds it. The
Kenyan capital serves as an economic and political hub for all of East
Africa, and according to STRATFOR sources, al Shabaab takes advantage
of this fact by employing the use of covert agents in Nairobi to raise
funds, recruit and gather intelligence on the moves of potential
adversaries in the region.
Even if al Shabaab were one day willing to risk its lifeline to
Nairobi, the fact that it has not yet been able to bring to bear
sufficient force to take control of its own country’s capital of
Mogadishu — or the rest of the country, for that matter — makes the
prospects of a coordinated campaign to destabilize the Kenyan capital
even more remote. Al Shabaab already is stretched thin in its fight
against the TFG, the Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca militia and Somali
nationalist group Hizbul Islam. Adding the Kenyan government to the
mix would be a bridge too far.
Security forces already have been cracking down hard on Somalis in
Kenya since the Jan. 15 riot, with reports that up to 800 “foreigners”
(code for Somalis) have been arrested across the country in less than
a week. Al-Faisal, the cleric whose arrest sparked the riots, was
deported to Jamaica on Jan. 21, but his role in the recent tension is
less significant than the underlying problems his arrest brought to
the surface. With xenophobia against Somali communities on the rise in
Kenya, especially in Nairobi, al Shabaab would be loath to risk
provoking an even more fervent government crackdown on the networks it
utilizes to fund its operations in Somalia. While threats such as the
one against Nairobi issued Jan. 21 play well as propaganda tools, they
are not based upon al Shabaab’s strategic intent to expand the scope
of its operations.
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